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Recent Submissions

Evaluating Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts from HAFS Using Satellite-Derived Ocean Profiles
(American Meteorological Society, 2025) Lavin, Paige D.; Byrne, Deirdre A.; Gramer, Lewis J.; Trossman, David S.
As the ocean warms, tropical cyclones (TCs) may become more dangerous and costly for coastal communities since oceanic heat can increase TC intensity. Accurately modeling and forecasting TC intensity changes, especially from rapid intensification (RI) events, is challenging. Both RI and rapid weakening (RW) events can be strongly influenced by the heat content and stratification of the upper ocean, particularly for larger and slower-moving TCs. Better information about upper-ocean conditions can thus aid in the evaluation and potentially the improvement of RI/RW forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Next-Generation Enterprise Ocean Heat Content (NGE OHC) algorithm, an empirical parameterization, generates depth-resolved ocean temperature and salinity profiles that will be used operationally to estimate daily upper OHC fields and support detailed analysis of the potential oceanic contributions to RI/RW. The method leverages known ocean dynamics from relatively sparse in situ data to directly estimate profiles at high vertical and horizontal resolution from satellite data. In case studies from the 2020–22 Atlantic hurricane seasons, daily oceanic conditions from the NGE OHC are retrospectively compared with in situ Argo float observations, model initializations from the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS version 1.0B), and a current operational NOAA OHC product to illustrate how the NGE OHC would have helped improve the model’s initial ocean state in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. These comparisons show that many HAFS forecasts with intensity busts miss near-surface heat and barrier layers found in observations and the NGE OHC synthetic profiles.
Is China-Taiwan Rapprochement Possible? Experimental Evidence From Taiwan
(Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2025) Pan, Hsin-Hsin; Kastner, Scott L.; Pearson, Margaret L.
Any peaceful resolution to the Cross-Strait conflict between China and Taiwan is likely to be composed of give-and-take between the two sides, and any agreement will ultimately require the support of Taiwan’s citizens, by whom Taiwan’s leaders are held accountable. Yet little is known about the actual tradeoffs Taiwanese citizens are willing to make in pursuit of an agreement in a time of peace. In conjoint experiments fielded in Taiwan in April 2022, we present Taiwanese respondents with hypothetical Cross-Strait agreements that randomly assign economic, security, and sovereignty-related concessions by the two sides. We find that support for agreements is conditioned by the concessions included, with sovereignty-related or security-related concessions by Taiwan lowering support, and sovereignty or security-related concessions by China increasing support. Additionally, respondents indicate that neither US support nor PRC threats significantly influence support for agreements, and that Taiwan's acceptance of an agreement substantially reduces the perceived likelihood of conflict.
An anhydrobiotic cell line expressing odorant receptors shows odorant responses after dry storage
(Scientific Reports, 2025-10) Fuse, Hiroto; Cornette, Richard; Miyata, Yugo; Tokumoto, Shoko; Shimura, Sachiko; Araneda, Ricardo C.; Abshire, Pamela; Kikawada, Takahiro; Anderson, Roy; Haider, Redwan; Smela, Elisabeth
Odorant receptor-expressing cells have been shown to recognize various odors, which has brought them to the interest of the growing field of cell-based olfactory sensors. However, cell cultures are difficult to use outside a laboratory because of their continuous need for controlled conditions. In this study, the odorant receptor DmOr47a, the co-receptor DmOrco, and the calcium-sensing fluorescent protein GCaMP6f were stably expressed in a Pv11 cell line (Pv11-00443-Or47a), which is desiccatable. This cell line not only retained desiccation tolerance, but also showed dose-dependent fluorescence responses to the DmOr47a ligand pentyl acetate that were recovered 12 h after rehydration. Even more importantly, Pv11-00443-Or47a showed a response to the agonist of DmOrco just 1 h after rehydration, even upon inhibition of protein synthesis. This result demonstrates for the first time that a transmembrane protein can be dry-stored in an orthologous cell culture system. This work also constitutes an initial step towards the development of improved desiccatable sensing cells for use in portable devices.
Ocean Heat Content Sets Another Record in 2025
(Springer Nature, 2026-01) Pan, Yuying; Cheng, Lijing; Abraham, John; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Reagan, James; Du, Juan; Wang, Zhankun; Storto, Andrea; Von Schuckman, Karina; Zhu, Yujing; Mann, Michael E.; Zhu, Jiang; Wang, Fan; Yu, Fujiang; Locarnini, Ricardo; Fasullo, John; Huang, Boyin; Graham, Garrett; Yin, Xungang; Gouretski, Viktor; Zheng, Fei; Li, Yuanlong; Zhang, Bin; Wan, Liying; Chen, Xingrong; Wang, Dakui; Feng, Licheng; Song, Xiangzhou; Liu, Yulong; Reseghetti, Franco; Simoncelli, Simona; Chen, Gengxin; Zhang, Rongwang; Mishonov, Alexey; Wei, Wangxu; Tan, Zhetao; Li, Guancheng; Cao, Lijuan; Chen, Lifan; Yuan, Huifeng; Lyu, Kewei; Sulaiman, Albertus; Mayer, Michael; Wang, Huizan; Ma, Zhanhong; Bao, Senliang; Yan, Hengqian; Liu, Zenghong; Yang, Chunxue; Liu, Xu; Hausfather, Zeke; Gues, Flora; Song, Xinyi; Zhang, Miao; Chen, Lin
Global ocean warming continued unabated in 2025 in response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations and recent reductions in sulfate aerosols, reflecting the long-term accumulation of heat within the climate system, with conditions evolving toward La Niña during the year. In 2025, global upper 2000 m ocean heat content (OHC) increased by ∼23 ± 8 ZJ relative to 2024 according to IAP/CAS estimates. CIGAR-RT, and Copernicus Marine data confirm the continued ocean heat gain. Regionally, about 33% of the global ocean area ranked among its historical (1958–2025) top three warmest conditions, while about 57% fell within the top five, including the tropical and South Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea, North Indian Ocean, and Southern Oceans, underscoring the broad ocean warming across basins. Multiple datasets consistently indicate ocean warming, as measured by 0–2000 m OHC, increased from 0.14 ± 0.03 W m−2 (10 yr)−1 during 1960–2025 to 0.32 ± 0.14 W m−2 (10 yr)−1 during 2005–2025 (IAP/CAS), the latter being consistent with EEI (Earth’s Energy Imbalance) estimates within uncertainties. In contrast, the global annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in 2025 was 0.49°C above the 1981–2010 baseline and 0.12 ± 0.03°C lower than in 2024 (IAP/CAS; similar in CMA-SST, FY3 MWRI SST, ERSSTv5 and Copernicus Marine data), consistent with the development of La Niña conditions, but still ranking as the third-warmest year on record.
High-Resolution Regional Ocean Climatologies with the Northwest Atlantic as an Example: A Review
(Journal of Marine Science Research and Oceanography, 2024-01) Mishonov, Alexey; Seidov, Dan; Baranova, Olga; Bouchard, C.; Boyer, Tim; Cross, Scott; Larsen, Kirsten; Nyadjro, Ebenez P.; Weathers, Katherine
The advantages of high-resolution oceanographic data analysis stems from an increased ability to capture sharp gradients in frontal zones and across mesoscale entities, especially in the coastal regions and along ocean jet-like currents, relative to coarser resolution analyses. In a sense, the finer-resolution analysis pursues the same goal as the usage of progressively reduced grid sizes in succeeding from coarse-resolution to eddy-permitting and then to eddy-resolving in numerical models of ocean circulation. Thus, the high-resolution regional climatologies are now closing the gaps existing between observations and model simulations allowing meaningful data-model comparisons in critical data-rich regions, such as the Northwestern Atlantic, Northeast Pacific Ocean, and several others. In this paper, we briefly review the locations, timing, purpose, and specificity of the regional ocean climatologies developed at the National Center for Environmental Information of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We describe the Northwestern Atlantic Regional Climatology, version 2 in more details and demonstrate how this regional climatology contributes to a better understanding of the long-term climate state and variability.