PARAMETRIC AND NON-PARAMETRIC APPROACHES FOR THE PREDICTION OF THE DIFFUSION OF THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE

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dc.contributor.advisorCirillo, Cinziaen_US
dc.contributor.advisorZofío Prieto, José Luisen_US
dc.contributor.authorBas Vicente, Javieren_US
dc.contributor.departmentCivil Engineeringen_US
dc.contributor.publisherDigital Repository at the University of Marylanden_US
dc.contributor.publisherUniversity of Maryland (College Park, Md.)en_US
dc.date.accessioned2020-10-10T05:35:04Z
dc.date.available2020-10-10T05:35:04Z
dc.date.issued2020en_US
dc.description.abstractDriven by environmental awareness and new regulations for fuel efficiency, electric vehicles (EVs) have significantly evolved in the last decade, yet their market share is still much lower than expected. In addition to understanding the reasons for this slow market penetration, it is crucial to have appropriate tools to correctly predict the diffusion of this innovative product. Recent works in forecasting the EV market combine substitution and diffusion models, where discrete choice specifications are used to address the former, and Bass-type to account for the latter. However, these methodologies are not dynamic and do not consider the fact that innovation occurs through social channels among members of a social system. This research presents two advanced methodologies that make use of real data to evaluate the adoption of the EVs in the State of Maryland. The first consists of a disaggregated substitution model that considers social influence and social conformity, which is then embedded in a diffusion model to predict electric vehicle sales. The second, in contrast, relies on non-parametric machine learning techniques for the classification of potential EV purchasers. Both make use of data collected through a stated choice experiment specifically designed to capture the inclination of users towards EVs.en_US
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.13016/jltt-x2bw
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1903/26605
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.subject.pqcontrolledTransportationen_US
dc.subject.pqcontrolledEconomicsen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledDiffusionen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledDiscrete Choice Modelsen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledElectric Vehicleen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledMachine Learningen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledSurvey methodsen_US
dc.titlePARAMETRIC AND NON-PARAMETRIC APPROACHES FOR THE PREDICTION OF THE DIFFUSION OF THE ELECTRIC VEHICLEen_US
dc.typeDissertationen_US

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