Mechanical Engineering
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Item A Framework for Remaining Useful Life Prediction and Optimization for Complex Engineering Systems(2024) Weiner, Matthew Joesph; Azarm, Shapour; Groth, Katrina M; Reliability Engineering; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction plays a crucial role in maintaining the operational efficiency, reliability, and performance of complex engineering systems. Recent efforts have primarily focused on individual components or subsystems, neglecting the intricate relationships between components and their impact on system-level RUL (SRUL). The existing gap in predictive methodologies has prompted the need for an integrated approach to address the complex nature of these systems, while optimizing the performance with respect to these predictive indicators. This thesis introduces a novel methodology for predicting and optimizing SRUL, and demonstrates how the predicted SRUL can be used to optimize system operation. The approach incorporates various types of data, including condition monitoring sensor data and component reliability data. The methodology leverages probabilistic deep learning (PDL) techniques to predict component RUL distributions based on sensor data and component reliability data when sensor data is not available. Furthermore, an equation node-based Bayesian network (BN) is employed to capture the complex causal relationships between components and predict the SRUL. Finally, the system operation is optimized using a multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA), where SRUL is treated as a constraint and also as an objective function, and the other objective relates to mission completion time. The validation process includes a thorough examination of the component-level methodology using the C-MAPSS data set. The practical application of the proposed methodology in this thesis is through a case study involving an unmanned surface vessel (USV), which incorporates all aspects of the methodology, including system-level validation through qualitative metrics. Evaluation metrics are employed to quantify and qualify both component and system-level results, as well as the results from the optimizer, providing a comprehensive understanding of the proposed approach’s performance. There are several main contributions of this thesis. These include a new deep learning structure for component-level PHM, one that utilizes a hybrid-loss function for a multi-layer long short-term memory (LSTM) regression model to predict RUL with a given confidence interval while also considering the complex interactions among components. Another contribution is the development of a new framework for computing SRUL from these predicted component RULs, in which a Bayesian network is used to perform logic operations and determine the SRUL. These contributions advance the field of PHM, but also provide a practical application in engineering. The ability to accurately predict and manage the RUL of components within a system has profound implications for maintenance scheduling, cost reduction, and overall system reliability. The integration of the proposed method with an optimization algorithm closes the loop, offering a comprehensive solution for offline planning and SRUL prediction and optimization. The results of this research can be used to enhance the efficiency and reliability of engineering systems, leading to more informed decision-making.Item Systematic Integration of PHM and PRA (SIPPRA) for Risk and Reliability Analysis of Complex Engineering Systems(2021) Moradi, Ramin; Groth, Katrina; Mechanical Engineering; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Complex Engineering Systems (CES) such as power plants, process plants, and manufacturing plants have numerous, interrelated, and heterogeneous subsystems with different characteristics and risk and reliability analysis requirements. With the advancements in sensing and computing technology, abundant monitoring data is being collected. This is a rich source of information for more accurate assessment and management of these systems. The current risk and reliability analysis approaches and practices are inadequate in incorporating various sources of information, providing a system-level perspective, and performing a dynamic assessment of the operation condition and operation risk of CES. In this dissertation, this challenge is addressed by integrating techniques and models from two of the major subfields of reliability engineering: Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). PRA is very effective at modeling complex hardware systems, and approaches have been designed to incorporate the risks introduced by humans, software, organizational, and other contributors into quantitative risk assessments. However, PRA has largely been used as a static technology mainly used for regulation. On the other hand, PHM has developed powerful new algorithms for understanding and predicting mechanical and electrical device health to support maintenance. Yet, PHM lacks the system-level perspective, relies heavily on operation data, and its outcomes are not risk-informed. I propose a novel framework at the intersection of PHM and PRA which provides a forward-looking, model- and data-driven analysis paradigm for assessing and predicting the operation risk and condition of CES. I operationalize this framework by developing two mathematical architectures and applying them to real-world systems. The first architecture is focused on enabling online system-level condition monitoring. The second architecture improves upon the first and realizes the objectives of using various sources of information and monitoring operation condition together with operational risk.Item DEEP ADVERSARIAL APPROACHES IN RELIABILITY(2020) Verstraete, David Benjamin; Modarres, Mohammad; Reliability Engineering; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Reliability engineering has long been proposed with the problem of predicting failures using all available data. As modeling techniques have become more sophisticated, so too have the data sources from which reliability engineers can draw conclusions. The Internet of Things (IoT) and cheap sensing technologies have ushered in a new expansive set of multi-dimensional big machinery data in which previous reliability engineering modeling techniques remain ill-equipped to handle. Therefore, the objective of this dissertation is to develop and advance reliability engineering research by proposing four comprehensive deep learning methodologies to handle these big machinery data sets. In this dissertation, a supervised fault diagnostic deep learning approach with applications to the rolling element bearings incorporating a deep convolutional neural network on time-frequency images was developed. A semi-supervised generative adversarial networks-based approach to fault diagnostics using the same time-frequency images was proposed. The time-frequency images were used again in the development of an unsupervised generative adversarial network-based methodology for fault diagnostics. Finally, to advance the studies of remaining useful life prediction, a mathematical formulation and subsequent methodology to combine variational autoencoders and generative adversarial networks within a state-space modeling framework to achieve both unsupervised and semi-supervised remaining useful life estimation was proposed. All four proposed contributions showed state of the art results for both fault diagnostics and remaining useful life estimation. While this research utilized publicly available rolling element bearings and turbofan engine data sets, this research is intended to be a comprehensive approach such that it can be applied to a data set of the engineer’s chosen field. This research highlights the potential for deep learning-based approaches within reliability engineering problems.