Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland
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Item Micro-Level Analysis of Civil Violence: An Event Data Analysis of Kenya, Georgia-Russia, and Mexico(2012-08) Jones, KevinResearch on civil violence and political instability has yielded important baseline information about the conditions that have the potential to increase risks for mass violence, political instability, or state failure. Limits on data collection, analysis, and interpretation immediately before and during outbreaks of conflict, however, constrain analysts from identifying which conflict-prone country will descend into political instability or violence in time for a targeted intervention or effective response. This paper presents a conceptual framework for analyzing the heterogeneous and dynamic character of local conflict. This work is anchored in the need to describe conflict dynamics as they occur, to understand in real-time the political, economic, and social drivers and to gather high-resolution (e.g. local, disaggregated) data to analyze social instability. The paper demonstrates the effectiveness of such a framework and applies it to three case studies: the Kenyan presidential election of 2007, the Georgia-South Ossetian war in 2008, and the Mexico drug wars in 2010. The case-study results suggest that the analysis of high-resolution event data immediately prior to two of the conflicts could have enabled early detection and warning of the potential for large-scale civil violence. The third case provides retrospective analytical insight into local conflict dynamics. This paper argues that in an era of non-state actors, emergent conflict, and natural resource pressures, a new conceptual approach to event data collection and analytical process can provide low-cost, near real-time monitoring and evaluation of ongoing and potential conflicts in multiple languages and regions.Item Faith and Global Policy Challenges Questionnaire(2011-12) Kull, Steven; Steinbruner, John; Gallagher, Nancy; Ramsay, Clay; Lewis (aka Fehsenfeld), Evan; Siegel, Jonas; Jones, Kevin; Subias, StefanThis document includes the complete survey questionnaire for the study "Faith and Global Policy Challenges," as well as the study's raw data.Item Faith and Global Policy Challenges(2011-12) Kull, Steven; Steinbruner, John; Gallagher, Nancy; Ramsay, Clay; Lewis (aka Fehsenfeld), Evan; Siegel, Jonas; Jones, Kevin; Subias, StefanIn an effort to understand how the general public and individuals with specific religious traditions think that their spiritual faith intersects with global policy challenges, the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) and its Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) conducted a public opinion poll. This poll is part of a larger effort to engage faith communities in addressing these challenges. As national governments and civil society contend with these issues, the involvement of religious communities and the application of their convictions could prove decisive.Item Fear of Democracy or Revolution: The Reaction to Andijon(2006-05-01) Hill, Fiona; Jones, Kevin; CISSM