Atmospheric & Oceanic Science
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Formerly known as the Department of Meteorology.
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Item EXAMINATION OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE AND ITS PRECURSORS WITHIN AN AIR QUALITY MODEL AND IMPLICATIONS FOR AIR QUALITY AND CLIMATE(2021) Hembeck, Linda; Salawitch, Ross J; Canty, Timothy P; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Elevated levels of tropospheric ozone (O3) caused by emissions of NOx and VOCs negatively impact human health, crops, and ecosystems. Even if precursor emissions are reduced below current levels, predicted higher temperatures due to increased greenhouse gas emissions could impede resulting air quality benefits. Air quality models simulate the complex relationships that form O3 and are used to guide policy decisions directed at improving O3. The body of this work encompasses three projects related to improvements in the representation of O3 and precursors in air quality models. First, I examine the role of O3 and its precursors in air quality and climate change by evaluating ozone production efficiency (OPE) and O3 precursors within models. I modified a chemical mechanism and the emissions of NOx to accurately represent NOx, the reactivity of NOx with peroxy radicals, HCHO, isoprene, as well as organic and inorganic NOy reservoir species. Implementation of these modifications increased confidence in model simulations. Results indicate accepted inventories overestimated NOx emissions but underestimate total VOC reactivity and OPE. Second, I examined the dependence of surface O3 on temperature (climate penalty factor (CPF)) throughout a period of 11 years within an air quality model and measurements. Future increases in temperature could offset benefits from future reductions in the emission of O3 precursors. Determining and understanding the CPF is critical to formulating effective strategies to reduce future exceedances. I have demonstrated that the model can reproduce O3 sensitivity to temperature reasonably well. By controlling emissions specifically of NOx mankind has reduced its vulnerability. Third, I compare satellite-observed and modeled ammonia (NH3) under varying chemical environments over East Asia. Regulation of O3 precursor concentrations in the atmosphere has an indirect effect on NH3 concentrations. Air quality policy to reduce NOx and through that also nitric acid (HNO3) in the atmosphere can result in an increase in the concentration of NH3 because of its neutralizing ability. Therefore, a less acidic atmosphere sequesters less NH3. This preliminary work exposes different areas that need to be addressed to gain greater insight into NH3 emissions and chemistry.Item Quantification of the Past and Future Anthropogenic Effect on Climate Change Using the Empirical Model of Global Climate, an Energy Balance Multiple Linear Regression Model(2020) Hope, Austin Patrick; Salawitch, Ross J; Canty, Timothy P; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)The current episode of global warming is one of, if not the, biggest challenge to modern society as the world moves into the 21st century. Rising global temperatures due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are causing sea level rise, extreme heat waves, droughts and floods, and other major social and economic disruptions. To prepare for and potentially reverse this warming trend, the causes of climate change must not only be understood, but thoroughly quantified so that we can attempt to make reasonable predictions of the future rise in global temperature and its associated consequences. The project described in this dissertation seeks to use a simple model of global climate, utilizing an energy balance and multiple linear regression approach, to provide a quantification of historical temperature trends and use that knowledge to provide probabilistic projections of future temperature. By considering many different greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions scenarios along with multiple possibilities for the role of the ocean in the climate system and the extent of climate feedbacks, I have determined that there is a 50% probability of keeping global warming beneath 2 °C if society can keep future emissions on the pathway suggested by the RCP 4.5 scenario, which includes moderately ambitious emissions reductions policies, and a 67% probability of keeping global warming beneath 1.5 °C if society can keep emissions in line with the very ambitious RCP 2.6 scenario. These probabilities are higher, e.g. more optimistic, than similar probabilities for the same scenarios given by the most recent IPCC assessment report. Similarly, we find larger carbon budgets than those from GCM analyses for any warming limitation target and confidence level, e.g. the EM-GC predicts a total carbon budget of 710 GtC for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C with 95% confidence. The results from our simple climate model suggest that the difference in future temperatures is related to an overestimation of recent warming by the IPCC global climate models. We postulate that this difference is partially due to an overestimation of cloud feedback processes in the global climate models. Importantly, though, I also reaffirm the consensus that anthropogenic emissions are driving current warming trends, and discuss both the effects of shifting the energy sector toward increase methane emissions and the timeline we have for emitting the remainder of our carbon budget – less than a decade if we wish to prevent global warming from exceeding the 1.5 °C threshold with 95% certainty.Item EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION AND RELATED PRECIPITATION IN RECENT ATMOSPHERIC REANALYSES AND CMIP5 MODEL SIMULATIONS(2018) Dai, Ni; Arkin, Phillip A; Nigam, Sumant; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), originating in the tropical Pacific, is the most significant mode of interannual variability of the ocean-atmosphere system. ENSO can modulate global climate through teleconnections with significant socioeconomic consequences, especially in the Tropics and along the western coastline of the Americas. It is thus important for the general circulation models (GCMs) of the oceans and atmosphere to simulate ENSO and its regional hydroclimate impacts with some fidelity. Although our understanding of the ENSO structure and dynamics has improved in the past few decades, its modeling remains challenging. Analysis of climate simulations produced by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) GCMs and long-term global precipitation datasets as well as recent high-resolution atmospheric reanalyses provides insights on improving the ENSO simulation as well as the recent and projected ENSO-related changes under global warming. A classification of CMIP5 models into two groups is developed on the basis of pattern correlation of the precipitation climatology and the ENSO-related precipitation anomalies with their counterparts in the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) and a statistically reconstructed precipitation dataset (REC). ENSO-related diabatic heating, atmospheric circulations, and air-sea interaction in the two model groups are then assessed using the state-of-the-art high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis, ERA-Interim, whose representation of tropical diabatic heating is considered optimal. The better performing model group simulates the ENSO-related features well, while the underperforming group exhibits severe biases, including deficient equatorial precipitation in both climatology and ENSO precipitation anomalies. This group also simulates a more westward-located and less robust ENSO precipitation/diabatic heating anomaly center together with weaker associated Walker and Hadley circulations and air-sea interaction compared to the better performing group. Regarding multidecadal and centennial change in ENSO variability during the 20th and 21st centuries, ENSO-related SST anomalies strengthened in the later part of the last century, while the changes in ENSO-related precipitation were diverse and included both zonal shift and intensification. The underperforming group of models exhibits a robust increase and zonal shift of ENSO-related precipitation, SST and diabatic heating in the 21st century. The other group shows an increase in ENSO precipitation in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, with related intensification of diabatic heating anomalies in the mid-to-upper troposphere.Item Identification and Quantification of Regional Aerosol Trends and Impact on Clouds over the North Atlantic Ocean(2017) Jongeward, Andrew; Li, Zhanqing; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Aerosols and clouds contribute to atmospheric variability and Earth’s radiative balance across local, regional, and global scales. Originating from both natural and anthropogenic sources, aerosols can cause adverse health effects and can interact directly with solar radiation as well as indirectly through complex interactions with clouds. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been observed from satellite platforms for over 30 years. During this time, regional changes in emissions, arising from air quality policies and socioeconomic factors, have been suggested as causes for some observed AOD trends. In the United States, the Clean Air Act and amendments have produced improvements in air quality. In this work the impacts of improved air quality on the aerosol loading and aerosol direct and indirect effects over the North Atlantic Ocean are explored using satellite, ground, and model datasets on the monthly timescale during 2002 to 2012. It is established that two trends exist in the total AOD observed by MODIS over the North Atlantic. A decreasing AOD trend between −0.02 and −0.04 per decade is observed over the mid-latitude region. Using the GOCART aerosol model it is shown that this trend results from decreases in anthropogenic species. Ground based aerosol networks (AERONET and IMPROVE) support a decreasing trend in AOD and further strengthen links to anthropogenic aerosol species, particularly sulfate species. This anthropogenic decrease occurs primarily during spring and summer. During the same time period, MODIS also observes an increasing AOD trend of 0.02 per decade located in the sub-tropical region. This trend is shown to occur during summer and is the result of natural dust aerosol. Changes in the North African environment seen in the MERRA reanalysis suggest an accelerated warming over the Saharan Desert leads to changes in the African Easterly Jet, related Easterly Waves, and baroclinicity playing a role in an increase and northward shift in African dust. Both the direct and indirect impacts of the aerosol trends are investigated. Using the SBDART radiative transfer model, estimates of the shortwave direct radiative forcing are calculated. The decrease in anthropogenic AOD produces an increase of 2.0 ± 0.3 W/m2 per decade in the Earth-system absorbance over the mid-latitude site (37.5ºN, −68.5ºE). The increase in natural AOD results in a decrease of −1.1 ± 0.2 W/m2 per decade in the Earth-system absorbance over the sub-tropical site (23.5ºN, −55.5ºE). Evaluation of the first indirect effect demonstrates agreement with Twomey theory when considering the North Atlantic domain on the whole. A regional analysis reveals the existence of counter-Twomey behavior along the U.S. Atlantic coast. Using a daily dataset during summertime with focus on warm, non-precipitating clouds, it is found that aerosol-cloud interaction in this coastal region is sensitive to vertical velocity and aerosol size. Cases experiencing updrafts (ω < 0 Pa/s) and cases of mainly coarse-mode aerosol demonstrate good agreement with Twomey theory. Additionally, cases with low specific humidity near the cloud base show non-Twomey behavior for clouds with low liquid water path.Item IMPACT OF LAND SURFACE VEGETATION CHANGE OVER THE LA PLATA BASIN ON THE REGIONAL CLIMATIC ENVIRONMENT: A STUDY USING CONVENTIONAL LAND-COVER/LAND-USE AND NEWLY DEVELOPED ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONAL TYPES(2010) Lee, Seung-Jae; Berbery, Ernesto H; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Naturally occurring or human induced changes in land surface vegetation have been recognized as one of the important factors influencing climate change. The La Plata Basin in South America has experienced significant changes in structural land-cover/land-use types, and those changes can involve changes in the surface physical properties such as albedo and roughness length, evapotranspiration, infiltration, and water storage eventually affecting the development of precipita-tion and the hydroclimate of the basin. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) modeling system was employed to investigate the role of changing land surface conditions in the La Plata Basin. For this purpose, ensembles of seasonal simulations were prepared for a control case and two extreme land cover scenarios: the first one assumes an expansion of the agricultural activities and the second one assumes a "natural" vegetation cover where no croplands are present. An extreme anthropogenic land-cover change -simulating an extensive agricultural practice- implies that the northern part of the basin, where croplands replace forests and savannah, would experience an overall increase in albedo and reduced surface friction. The two changes lead to a reduction of sensible heat and surface temperature, and a somewhat higher evapotranspiration due to decreased stomatal resistance and stronger near-surface winds. The effect on sensible heat seems to dominate and leads to a reduction in convective instability. The stronger low level winds due to reduced friction also imply a larger amount of moisture advected out of the basin, and thus resulting in reduced moisture flux convergence (MFC) within the basin. The two effects, increased stability and reduced MFC, result in a reduction of precipitation. On the other hand, the southern part of the basin exhibits the opposite behavior, as crops would replace grasslands, resulting in reduced albedo, a slight increase of surface temperature and increased precipitation. Notably, the results are not strictly local, as advective processes tend to modify the circulation and precipitation patterns downstream over the South Atlantic Ocean. A newly developed land surface classification, so-called Ecosystem Functional Types (EFTs, systems that share homogeneous energy and mass exchanges with the atmosphere), is implemented in the WRF model to explore its usefulness in regional climate simulations of surface and atmospheric variables. Results show that use of the EFT data improves the climate simulation of 2-m temperature and precipitation, making EFTs a good alternative to land cover types in numerical climate models. An additional advantage of EFTs is that they can be calculated on a yearly basis, thus representing the interannual variability of the surface states. During dry years the 2-m temperature and 10-m wind are more sensitive to changes in EFTs, while during wet years the sensitivity is larger for the 2-m water vapor mixing ratio, convective available potential energy, vertically-integrated moisture fluxes and surface precipitation. This indicates that the impact of land-cover and land-use changes on the climate of the LPB is dependent not only on the wetness of the year, but also on the meteorological or climate variables. Comparisons with observations show that the simulated precipitation difference induced by EFT changes resembles the overall pattern of observed precipitation changes for those same years over the LPB. In the case of the 2-m temperature, the simulated changes due to EFT changes are similar to the observed changes in the eastern part and the southern part of the basin (especially in Uruguay), where t he strongest EFT changes occurred.Item SURFACE AND AEROSOL EFFECTS ON THE SOUTH ASIAN MONSOON HYDROCLIMATE(2010) Bollasina, Massimo A.; Nigam, Sumant; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)This work targets important couplings in the South Asian monsoon system at interannual or longer time-scales and associated processes and mechanisms: aerosol-hydroclimate, atmosphere-ocean, and land-atmosphere. Anomalous springtime absorbing aerosols loading over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) leads to large-scale variations of the monsoon: cloudiness reduction associated with increased aerosols is suggested to play an important role in triggering surface heating over India, which strengthens the monsoon. Indeed, a closer analysis with high resolution data depicts a complex interplay between aerosols, dynamics and precipitation. Interestingly, observations do not provide any evidence for the Elevated Heat Pump hypothesis, a mechanism proposed for the aerosol-monsoon link. Current coupled climate models, which have been extensively used to study aerosol-monsoon interactions, are shown to have large, systematic, and coherent biases in precipitation, evaporation, sea-surface temperature (SST) over the Indian Ocean during the monsoon. Models are also found to deficiently portray local and non-local air-sea interactions. For example, they tend to emphasize local oceanic forcing on precipitation or to poorly simulate the relationship between SST and evaporation. The Indian monsoon rainfall-SST link is also spuriously misrepresented, suggesting caution when interpreting model-based findings. Both regional and remote forcings modulate the annual cycle of the heat-low over the desert areas (including the Thar Desert) between Pakistan and northwestern India, source of most of the dust loading over India. Land-surface heating has a limited role in the development of the low. Regional orography and monsoon summertime deep-convection over the Bay of Bengal, with its upstream descent to the west and related northerlies, contribute to the strengthening of the low, indicating a monsoon modulation on desert processes, including dust emission. The Thar Desert is expanding westward and the potential impact of land-cover change (without consideration of the additional aerosol loading) on summer monsoon hydroclimate and circulation is found to be significant. Locally, the atmospheric water cycle weakens, air temperature cools and subsidence prevails. An anomalous northwesterly flow over the IGP weakens the monsoon circulation over eastern India, causing precipitation to decrease. Orographic enhanced precipitation occurs over the Eastern Himalayas and southern China.