Public Policy Theses and Dissertations

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AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF THE FUTURE “HYDROGEN ECONOMY”: DECARBONIZATION POTENTIAL, SOCIETAL IMPLICATIONS, AND POLICY APPROACHES
(2024) O'Rourke, Patrick Robert; Hultman, Nathan; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Recently clean hydrogen has captured the attention of policy communities, as evidenced by the publication of hydrogen “roadmaps” or “strategies” by dozens of nations. This is partly because it can be produced from numerous primary energy resources and utilized in a plethora of ways to enable decarbonization. However, there remain open questions as to how the energy carrier should contribute toward carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation. Additionally, less is known about its impacts on other societal objectives and whether government plans for hydrogen are driven by realistic expectations regarding its ability to facilitate emissions reductions. This dissertation involves three studies which simulate energy transitions within the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), each aiming to help illuminate hydrogen’s potential impact on society. First, clean hydrogen supply and demand within the context of decarbonization is investigated. In this research, it is found that hydrogen could be a decentralized energy carrier, as a large portion of its production is enabled by onsite production (i.e., at the location of the end user). In terms of demand, although it will represent a smaller portion of global final energy compared to alternatives, hydrogen enables CO2 mitigation in difficult-to-electrify end uses (e.g., satiating demand for industrial high-temperature heat). The second topic of this dissertation examines hydrogen’s potential implications for the water-energy-food nexus. It is found that clean hydrogen production is unlikely to be a large source of water demand, however, its availability in the forthcoming energy transition could cause larger indirect changes in water demand for many regions of the world. Additionally, clean hydrogen availability is found to enable lower staple crop prices, as it provides a method of reducing CO2 associated with fertilizer manufacturing. Lastly, this dissertation analyzed the Japanese and Korean national hydrogen plans. Aligning with the results from the first research topic of this work, hydrogen’s use within their economies is lower than alternative decarbonization strategies (e.g., direct electrification). As a result, the national plans of both nations are found to be overestimating the scale of hydrogen supply. Further, both countries are generally setting numerical goals for hydrogen deployment in areas of the economy that are less economically efficient compared to alternative sectors where it could both facilitate decarbonization as well as bolster their economies.
Energy equity & justice implications of climate change mitigation pathways
(2023) Vallimyalil, Mel George A; Patwardhan, Anand; Hultman, Nathan E; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Analyzing distributional effects on vulnerable sections is important for enhancing climate mitigation ambition by supporting social objectives. Discounting the impacts on the most vulnerable, prior research underestimates the skew in investments required to meet sustainable development goals. Its focus on representative households and cost optimal mitigation pathway archetypes also amplifies false narratives around societal and developmental tradeoffs of mitigation policies. This study demonstrates that bespoke pathway design can support simultaneous attainment of multiple national energy priorities. Using a consistent framework and accounting for interactions between different sectors, it evaluates a set of diverse mitigation pathways to similar climate outcomes. It examines short & long-term distributional impacts on national energy goals to identify pathways which offer synergies across multiple objectives and regions.Next, the impacts are downscaled to the household income deciles in India & the US using household survey data & future income distribution projections, to scrutinize the residential energy burden changes under different mitigation policies. The results show regressive impacts on access and affordability for most mitigation pathways, except those propelled by demand side mitigation strategies and non-CO2 emission reductions. Thereafter, it expands the conceptualization of energy poverty beyond unitary dimensions, binary classifications and income relationships. Applying an alternative framework to identify vulnerable households experiencing energy poverty in India, this study showcases the disparities across dimensions. It then envisions an intersectionality context and proffers empirical evidence of the increased likelihood of households at the overlap of multiple deprivations being entrapped in more severe forms of energy poverty and the concomitant effects on gender inequity. A key finding of this study is that mitigation pathway choice and design matters for just energy transition goals and tailored pathways addressing underlying local and global inequities provide latitude for synergies and progressive impacts. It also establishes that technology solutions alone are unable to redress pre-existing inequities and should be complemented with other support policies for the vulnerable. This study contributes to the scholarship on the need for improved representation of heterogeneity in energy-climate models and offers policy relevance – showing the importance of underlying systemic changes to achieve social & climate goals together.
U.S. NUCLEAR ENERGY COOPERATION AND PARTNER COUNTRY NONPROLIFERATION: CASE STUDIES FROM EAST ASIA
(2022) Siegel, Jonas Elliott; Gallagher, Nancy; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
U.S. policy makers are promoting U.S. civilian nuclear exports as a means of influencing the nonproliferation policies of foreign governments and of achieving U.S. nuclear nonproliferation objectives. This approach to nonproliferation policy making assumes that engaging in international civilian nuclear cooperation is effective at influencing partner country nonproliferation commitments and behavior, and that it is more efficient and effective than other means of achieving similar nonproliferation goals. This dissertation tests these assumptions by examining the historical nonproliferation impact of U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation on three countries who sought to build civilian nuclear power programs with U.S. assistance: Japan, South Korea, and China. These case studies place U.S. civilian nuclear energy cooperation in the context of broader U.S. security and economic relations with these countries, and provide a nuanced understanding of each countries’ rationales for engaging in nuclear cooperation and nonproliferation in the first place. This dissertation also develops a novel approach to measuring nonproliferation that focuses on a country’s nonproliferation behavior in addition to its policy commitments. It also assesses whether particular types and stages of U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation and/or the characteristics of U.S. partners affect the strength and direction of the relationship between nuclear cooperation and nonproliferation. In examining multiple periods of U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation with each country, this dissertation finds that U.S. civilian nuclear energy cooperation—and more specifically, the process of negotiating and renegotiating the terms of nuclear cooperation—can be effective ways to induce U.S. partner countries to adopt nonproliferation commitments. This is particularly the case when U.S. partners are energy insecure and rely predominantly (or exclusively) on foreign assistance in developing their civilian nuclear programs. U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation coupled with U.S. security cooperation (including nuclear security guarantees) can often win U.S. policy makers additional, detailed nonproliferation commitments from partner countries that are not possible with security cooperation alone. The dissertation also finds that U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation has limited impact on the nonproliferation behaviors of U.S. partners in the short run once they formally make nonproliferation commitments. In all three cases, U.S. partners’ nonproliferation behaviors improve over time, but these improvements are due to the partners’ internalization of global nonproliferation norms and partners’ development of their own nonproliferation logic, rather than the influence of U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation. Frequent changes in U.S. nonproliferation preferences and, in particular, the divergence of U.S. nonproliferation preferences from the baseline tenets of the multilateral nonproliferation regime make it costly and difficult for the United States to maintain influence on partner countries’ nonproliferation commitments and behaviors over time with civilian nuclear cooperation. On account of these findings, this dissertation argues that in many situations, U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation is not an effective means of achieving U.S. nonproliferation objectives. Compared to other possible courses of action, such as reinforcing multilateral nonproliferation agreements and norms, or engaging in nonproliferation capacity building, U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation is also not efficient in achieving U.S. aims. Should U.S. policy makers continue to pursue civilian nuclear cooperation as a means of achieving U.S. nonproliferation objectives, they should be aware of the conditions that are most conducive to U.S. nonproliferation influence, and they should be realistic about the challenges and costs associated with maintaining that influence over time.
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT IN BUILDINGS: ESSAYS ON THE IMPACTS, ADOPTION, AND BENEFITS
(2021) Liang, Jing; Qiu, Yueming (Lucy); Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Energy is essential for human development; however, energy consumption is also responsible for large air and greenhouse gas emissions. As the concerns about global climate change have increased, reducing energy demand has gained more importance. This dissertation focuses on energy consumption in the building sector, especially the residential building sector. Energy efficiency and conservation, as a key strategy for reducing energy demand in the building sector, is favored by advocates and policymakers because it can be a cost-effective approach to reduce energy demand. This dissertation takes a three-essay format and adds to the discussion on energy efficiency and the energy efficiency gap. Essay 1 evaluates energy efficiency retrofits. Many past estimations of energy efficiency performance are based on the predicted savings from simulation or engineering models, and they overestimate the actual savings. This essay evaluates the electricity savings from Energize Phoenix program in Arizona, which includes 201 residential buildings and 636 commercial buildings during 2008-2013. Fixed effects panel regression is applied, and the results show energy savings are 12% for commercial buildings and 8% for residential buildings. The realized energy savings are 30-50% lower than the predicted ones by engineering models, implying that policymakers need to rely more on the empirical evaluations. Heterogeneity also exists among retroﬁts for different buildings. Essay 2 investigates the adoption of energy efficiency. Although many market and behavioral factors have been proposed to explain the low adoption level of low-carbon technologies, the impact of one particular factor-electricity rate has not been fully discussed in the existing literature. Essay 2 investigates the association between time-of-use (TOU) electricity rate and the adoption of solar panels and energy-efficient air conditioners in residential buildings. The empirical evidence suggests that TOU consumers are associated with a 27% higher likelihood of solar panel installation, but they are not more likely to adopt energy-efficient air conditioners (ACs). Essay 3 examines the existence of the energy efficiency gap and compares the social and private benefits from energy efficiency under different rates (TOU and non-TOU rate). This essay applies data on energy efficiency retrofits and hourly electricity demand for about 16,000 households during 2013-2017. A combination of a matching approach and fixed effects panel regression is employed. The results show that the private benefits of energy efficiency exceed the social benefits under both TOU and non-TOU rates but by different degrees. These results indicate that there should be potentially different levels of policy interventions towards energy efficiency for consumers on different rates.
Analysis of the Labor Impacts of Clean Energy Transitions in the Power Sector in India
(2020) Sharma, Anjali; Patwardhan, Anand; Hultman, Nathan; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
The inevitability of climate action means that India needs to rapidly transition to a low-carbon economy while working towards its development goals. Though considered an emerging economy, India still lags behind on development indicators such as employment generation, and poverty eradication. As creation of ‘green jobs’ is recognized as an important co-benefit of climate mitigation, clean energy transitions can help India meet both its climate and employment goals. However, assessments of the labor impacts of clean energy transitions for India remain limited. In this dissertation, I explore the case of the power sector in India in detail. I first assess the economy-wide labor impacts of power generation in India in 2030 under different decarbonization scenarios. I use input-output modeling for this analysis. Second, I assess the regional distribution of the labor impacts associated with clean energy transitions using a spread-sheet based model. Finally, I assess the distribution of jobs in renewable and fossil-fuel based industries by skills. My results show that the total job creation in scenarios with accelerated deployment of renewable energy (RE) is relatively lower than business-as-usual scenarios on account of lower total power generation in the former scenarios, and greater economy-wide labor impacts of coal. I also find that the new jobs that are generated in solar and wind sectors will be concentrated in the western and southern parts of India, with 60% of the total jobs being generated in the states of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. Clean energy transitions would increase the requirement of semi-skilled, and skilled RE workforce, particularly for solar, in these states. In order to maximize the employment benefits associated with clean energy transitions, the Indian government should design industrial policies to steer domestic manufacturing of clean energy technologies. Coal-rich eastern states should be prioritized as locations for development of new industries to compensate for the clean energy transitions related job, and economic revenue losses. Finally, employment data for energy sector, including renewable technologies, should be collected regularly for a better assessment of the social and economic impacts of clean energy transitions.
Transition pathways of China and implications for climate change mitigation: evolution of the buildings sector
(2017) Yu, Sha; Hultman, Nathan E; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
China, as the world’s largest energy consumer and greenhouse gas emitter, also has the largest construction market. Energy use in Chinese buildings (including traditional biomass) constitutes 28% of China’s total final energy consumption and 16% of global building final energy consumption in 2012. Driven by economic growth, urbanization, and lifestyle changes, energy consumption in Chinese buildings is expected to continue to grow. Buildings will therefore be an important element of efforts by the Chinese government to plan infrastructure, constrain energy growth, or meet a range of related sustainability goals. This dissertation examines the evolution of the Chinese buildings sector and focuses on three issues. First, in order to make robust projections, we investigate the historical growth of the buildings sector in China, Japan, and the United States. The growth paths of Japan and the United States provide useful historical analogs for China’s future growth. We find that the change in energy use intensity was driven by short-term events, such as introduction of new policies, and showed greater variability compared to other drivers, whereas growth in per capita floorspace and household characteristics showed consistent long-term trends and was less responsive to short-term events. Second, we examine the growth in floorspace by province and building type. We use Gompertz model to estimate future floorspace growth, as it captures dynamics between floorspace and income and the saturated demand. This study shows variation across provinces in floorspace growth and a wider range of floorspace at the aggregate level than literature. It also has strong policy implications, as housing policies, in addition to building energy policies, are critical to curbing the growth in China’s building energy use. Third, using the Global Change Assessment Model-China (GCAM-China), we assess China’s future building energy demand under different transition pathways while accounting for provincial heterogeneity. We find that distinct development paths can lead to different levels of building energy consumption in China (25-42 EJ in 2050), and most growth would happen in the next two decades. Strong, provincial-specific near-term policy actions are needed in order to avoid locking in the inefficient infrastructure.
National Renewable Energy Policy in a Global World
(2017) Jeong, Minji; Hultman, Nathan E.; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Increasing trade of renewable energy products has significantly contributed to reducing the costs of renewable energy sources, but at the same time, it has generated protectionist policies, which may negatively affect the trend of the cost reduction. Although a few recent studies examined the rise of renewable energy protectionism and trade disputes, they are limited in addressing the conflict between the original goal of traditional renewable energy policies and the new protectionist policies under the globalized renewable energy industry. To fill this gap, this dissertation explores how the globalized renewable energy industry has changed national renewable energy policies. Through three analyses, three aspects of the globalized renewable energy industry are examined: the rise of multinational corporations, international interactions among actors, and the changes of the global and domestic market conditions. First analysis investigates how multinational renewable energy corporations have affected national policies. A content analysis of the annual reports of 15 solar photovoltaic multinational corporation shows that solar multinationals have been influenced by national policies and have adapted to the changes rather than having attempted to change national policies. Second analysis examines how diverse actors have framed renewable energy trade issues through a network analysis of the Chinese solar panel issue in the United States. The result shows that the Chinese solar panel issue was framed differently from the traditional environmental frame of renewable energy, being dominated by multinational corporations headquartered in other countries. Third analysis explores what has caused the increasing diversity in national renewable energy policies through the case studies of the U.S. and South Korea. The result reveals that the globalization of solar industry has affected the diversification of solar policies in two countries by generating both challenges, which needed to be addressed by new and additional policies, and opportunities, which strengthened the political power of domestic solar industries. The three analyses show that the globalized renewable energy industry has led to the diversification of national renewable energy policies by increasing international interactions between actors and by introducing both challenges and opportunities to domestic renewable energy industries. This research contributes to the literature on trade and the environment by analyzing a new pattern of the conflicts between traditional environmental policies and “green” protectionist policies. It also contributes to the literature on protectionism by adding an empirical case of green protectionism, one of the forms of “murky” protectionism that has risen after the global financial crisis.
The Impact of Energy Saving Policies on Industries in China
(2013) Zhu, Junming; Ruth, Matthias; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Current design and implementation of China's energy saving policies are characterized by multiple, mixed policy instruments and spatially based regulatory disparity. The dissertation replies on interviews, firm-level data, and industry-aggregate data to examine the impact of energy saving policy on firm-level energy saving and industry location in China. Case study research, using interviews with 20 firms in four industries and four locations, is applied to explain firm energy saving behaviors. The case studies show that competitiveness and legitimation are major motivations for energy saving under the policy influence of energy-saving agreements and capacity control and elimination. Extending from the case study findings, the dissertation examines on the basis of data of firms involved in the Top-1000 enterprise energy saving program the factors that contribute to energy efficiency improvements. Empirical results show that firms with less expansion and no new products are more likely to fulfill greater reduction of energy intensity for both existing and new production capacities. Their energy savings are driven by the pressure of lower individual and industry profit, higher electricity price and more subsidies, but are not correlated with any behavioral features identified in the previous literature. Spatially based regulatory disparity may direct industry growth to regions with lower regulation. Analysis of industry aggregate data from 2005 to 2010 confirms policy-induced industry location, and indicates that an 11% employment loss in manufacturing industries is associated with higher energy-saving regulation. The results suggest the need of future policy assistance for energy saving and resource conservation in regions with laxer regulations, and for the reallocation of labor and production. The dissertation complements the literature on the explanations for the energy efficiency gap, implications of policy instruments on firm behavior, and locational impact of environmental regulation. It suggests the effectiveness of combined mandatory, voluntary, and information policies designed to motivate firms and eliminate behavioral barriers, the usefulness of incorporating market-based policy in Chinese energy saving policies to encourage energy efficiency and mitigate relocation, and the need for further research into the cost effectiveness of financial incentives to meet efficiency targets for industries.
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
(2012) McJeon, Haewon C.; Ruth, Matthias; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
This dissertation examines the role that technology plays in climate change mitigation. It contains three essays each focusing on different aspects of the process in which advancements in low-carbon energy technologies impact the cost of carbon dioxide (CO2) abatement. The first essay develops the analytical foundation for understanding how heterogeneous low-carbon energy technologies induce differential impacts on the abatement cost. The analysis derives sets of conditions under which different types of advanced technologies can be evaluated for their respective strengths in reducing abatement costs at different levels of abatement. It emphasizes the weakness of a single point estimation of the impact of a technology and the importance of understanding the pattern of abatement cost reductions throughout the potential levels of abatement. The second essay focuses on the interactions of the energy technologies in the market. The analysis uses a combinatorial approach in which 768 scenarios are created for all combinations of considered technology groups. Using the dataset, the analysis shows how the reduction in the abatement cost may change significantly depending on the existence of other advanced technologies. The essay shows that many of the fundamental insights from traditional representative scenario analyses are in line with the findings from this comprehensive combinatorial analysis. However, it also provides more clarity regarding insights not easily demonstrated through representative scenario analyses. The analysis emphasizes how understanding the interactions between these technologies and their impacts on the cost of abatement can help better inform energy policy decisions. The third essay focuses on the impact technological change has on the cost of abatement, but with special attention paid to the issue of delayed technology development. By combining the probability of advanced technology success estimates from expert elicitations with the abatement cost data estimated with an integrated assessment model, a stochastic dynamic programming model is developed. A multi-period extension of the model allows intertemporal dynamic optimization where the policy-maker can select the technologies to be invested in immediately and the technologies to be invested in later. The analysis emphasizes the benefit of having a wait-and-see option that lets the policy-maker further optimize upon the observation of successes and failures of prior investments. The three essays collectively serve to demonstrate the importance of clearly understanding the differences among low-carbon technologies. They also provide methodological foundations upon which such technologies can be assessed and compared. Combining these methods with an enhanced understanding of the technologies will contribute to the body of research aimed at minimizing the cost of mitigating climate change.
Socio-Technical Transition as a Co-Evolutionary Process: Innovation and the Role of Niche Markets in the Transition to Motor Vehicles
(2008-04-25) Birky, Alicia Kim; Ruth, Matthias; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Significant reductions in greenhouse emissions from personal transportation will require a transition to an alternative technology regime based on renewable energy sources. Two bodies of research, the quasi-evolutionary (QE) model and the multi-level perspective (MLP) assert that processes within niches play a fundamental role in such transitions. This research asks whether the description of transitions based on this niche hypothesis and its underlying assumptions is consistent with the historical U.S. transition to motor vehicles at the beginning of the 20th century. Unique to this dissertation is the combination of the perspective of the entrepreneur with co-evolutionary approaches to socio-technical transitions. This approach is augmented with concepts from the industry life-cycle model and with a taxonomy of mechanisms of learning. Using this analytic framework, I examine specifically the role of entrepreneurial behavior and processes within and among firms in the co-evolution of technologies and institutions during the transition to motor vehicles. I find that niche markets played an important role in the development of the technology, institutions, and the industry. However, I also find that the diffusion of the automobile is not consistent with the niche hypothesis in the following ways: 1) product improvements and cost reductions were not realized in niche markets, but were achieved simultaneously with diffusion into mass markets; 2) in addition to learning-by-doing and learning-by-interacting with users, knowledge spillovers and interacting with suppliers were critical in this process; 3) cost reductions were not automatic results of expanding markets, but rather arose from the strategies of entrepreneurs based on personal perspectives and values. This finding supports the use of a behavioral approach with a micro-focus in the analysis of socio-technical change I also find that the emergence and diffusion of the motor vehicle can only be understood by considering the combination of developments and processes in multiple regimes, within niches, and within the wider technical, institutional, and ecological complex (TIEC). For the automobile, the process of regime development was more consistent with a fit-stretch pattern of gradual unfolding and adaptation than one of niche proliferation and rapid regime renewal described in the literature.

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