ACCESSIBILITY BASED EVALUATION OF COASTAL RURAL COMMUNITIES’ VULNERABILITY TO COASTAL FLOODING AND THEIR ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Abstract

Global climate change and sea-level rise will cause significant risks to coastal communities. To make inclusive and cost-effective adaptation planning decisions, we need to understand who may be impacted and when. Currently, planning literature generally focuses on housing impacts; when will a house be inundated, and what adaptation strategies are useful to keep a house habitable? Housing, though, is only one of many types of infrastructures people need to reside in an area. Reliable roads are another. This dissertation conducts an analysis of parcel-level impacts of SLR on local residents’ ability to reach key amenities such as emergency services, grocery stores, and schools. Furthermore, it strategically evaluates where road protection should be implemented so that access is maintained in an equitable manner. Next, I use the accessibility analysis to identify the important roads for gathering high-resolution flood data to improve the accuracy of the analysis. I use Dorchester County, Maryland, U.S., as a case study. It is an extremely low-lying rural county and is expected to shrink in half by the end of the century due to SLR. The results from the case study indicate that some parcels are not expected to be inundated by SLR but are expected to experience accessibility impacts. Road protection appears to be a temporary strategy that can buy time for long-term adaptation strategies such as relocation. However, the protection strategies should be cautiously selected based on decision-makers priorities. The insight obtained by this dissertation highlights that when policy and decision-makers are deciding among adaptation strategies, they need to reach some level of consensus about assumptions for which a possible future is planned, and also the trade-off between increasing accessibility levels and balancing the distribution of accessibility among different demographic groups.