Context and future potential for strategic afforestation and reforestation to meet state climate mitigation goals

Abstract

The development of greenhouse gas reduction plans, climate initiatives, and other international efforts, such as the Bonn Challenge, has driven demand for improved carbon accounting practices in the land-use sector. Recent projects advanced by the NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) and the NASA Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Mission provide critical information on present and future forest carbon stocks through high-resolution remote sensing and ecosystem modeling technologies. A key remaining geospatial and computational challenge is to identify and map strategic land areas for reforestation, which move decision-makers from considering wall-to-wall carbon sequestration potentials to priority implementation. This research seeks to address this challenge at the U.S. state scale by situating and demonstrating the unique capability of high-resolution NASA CMS forest carbon products to inform strategic reforestation in support of multiple policy goals. This work began with a review of the broader science and policy context for integrating forest carbon estimates into state climate mitigation planning across eleven states in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) domain (USA). Next, two specific and linked applications of CMS products were advanced in Maryland (USA) in support of state reforestation goals. First, a forest carbon rental model was developed and applied to determine whether and where potential revenues from reforestation would outcompete existing cropland profit at the hectare scale. Second, two reforestation scenarios that jointly maximized remaining carbon sequestration potential and unprotected biodiversity conservation areas were mapped and evaluated under several socio-economic factors. These results show that while most states in the region do not yet including forest carbon estimates within their climate mitigation planning, high-resolution CMS forest carbon products can be combined with socio-economic data to advance strategic reforestation in support of climate mitigation, as well as landowner livelihoods and expanded biodiversity protection. This research provides a framework for other states interested in strategic climate mitigation planning with high-resolution forest carbon products. Furthermore, the results directly advance carbon monitoring science applications to ecosystem management, environmental policy, and land-use planning, and address relevant issues in public and private sector decision-making, such as uncertainty, valuation, implications, costs, and benefits.