Affective Reactions to Uncertainty as Driven by Past Experiences, Personality, and Perceived Valence

Abstract

The assumption that uncertainty is inherently threatening which underlies decades of research belies the fact that people rarely react negatively to uncertain situations about which they do not care, and that some are excited by uncertainty. I propose that affective reactions to uncertainty are driven not by uncertainty itself, but by people’s expectations of positive and negative outcomes to personally relevant uncertain situations. I find that positive past experiences predict higher optimism and higher resilience, both of which predict higher tolerance of uncertainty and more positive perceptions of uncertain events. I also find that negative past experiences predict higher pessimism and lower resilience, both of which predict higher intolerance of uncertainty and more negative perceptions of uncertain events. The second study suggests that optimistic people are more likely to approach, rather than avoid, uncertainty. The third study finds that mindfulness training, which emphasizes non-attachment to outcomes, results in more neutral reactions to uncertainty. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.