SMALL AREA ESTIMATION OF SUBDISTRICT POVERTY RATES ON JAVA ISLAND, INDONESIA

Abstract

Poverty representing the deprivation of well-being is a global concern. The provision of poverty statistics for small area levels becomes crucial and mandatory to accelerate the poverty eradication program. This research undertakes poverty rate estimation for subdistrict levels on Java Island using small area estimation techniques. The results would give opportunities to better understand the poverty situation in small areas levels on Java Island. The main data source to calculate the poverty estimates is the Social and Economic Survey of March 2020. The direct estimation method, logistic fixed effects, and the logistics mixed effect models are employed to generate the poverty estimates. The model-based techniques use datasets from Population Census 2010 and Village Potential Enumeration Survey 2014 to derive the covariates. The direct technique does not show plausible estimates due to the sample size insufficiency. The logistic model improves the direct estimates but the variation between subdistricts is quite small which is unreasonable. The logistic mixed-effects model does not work perfectly but it gives good estimates for several subdistricts.