A MODEL SYSTEM TO EVALUATE THE IMPACTS OF VEHICLE-RELATED TAXATION POLICIES ON HOUSEHOLD GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

Abstract

This thesis proposes a model system to forecast household-level greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) from private transportation and to evaluate effects of car-related taxation schemes on vehicle emissions. The system contains four sub-models which specifically capture households' vehicle type and vintage, quantity, usage, and greenhouse gas emissions rates for different vehicle types. An integrated discrete-continuous vehicle ownership model is successfully implemented, while MOVES2014 (Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator 2014) is utilized. The model system has been applied to the Washington D.C. Metropolitan Area. The 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) with supplementary data from the Consumer Reports, the American Fact Finder and the 2009 State Motor Vehicle Registrations (SMVR) are used for estimations and predictions. Three tax schemes, vehicle ownership tax, purchase tax and fuel tax, have been proposed and their impacts on vehicle GHGEs reduction are predicted. The proposed model system can be extended to other regions, counties, states and nations.