Evaluation of SWAT Model Applicability for Waterbody Impairment Identification and TMDL Analysis

Abstract

The U.S. EPA's Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program has encountered hindrances in its implementation partly because of its strong dependence on mathematical models to set limitations on the release of impairing substances. The uncertainty associated with predictions of such models is often not formally quantified and typically assigned as an arbitrary safety factor to the margin of safety (MOS) portion of TMDL allocations.

AVSWAT-X, a semi-distributed, watershed-scale model, was evaluated to determine its applicability to identify the impairment status and tabulate a nutrient TMDL for a waterbody located in the Piedmont physiographic region of Maryland. The methodology for tabulating the nutrient TMDL is an enhancement over current methods used in Maryland. The mean-value first-order reliability method (MFORM) was used to calculate variance in output variables with respect to input parameter variance and the MOS value was derived based on the level confidence in meeting the water quality standard.

A calibration, validation and an uncertainty analysis was conducted on the AVSWAT-X model. Monthly results indicated that AVSWAT-X is a good predictor of streamflow, a moderate (at best) predictor of nutrient loading and a poor predictor of sediment loading. Improved performance was observed on an annual basis for nitrate and sediment loadings, indicating the most appropriate use of SWAT for long-term simulations. The most pronounced reason for discrepancies in model performance was the use of the SCS curve number method to tabulate surface runoff.

Uncertainty results indicated that input parameters that are highly sensitive may not necessarily contribute the largest amount of uncertainty to model output. The largest amount of variance in output variables occurred during wet periods. Predicted sediment output had the largest amount of variability around its mean, followed by nitrate, phosphate, and streamflow as indicated by average annual coefficients of variation of 28%, 19%, 17%, and 15%, respectively.

The methodology used in this study to quantify the nitrate TMDL and the MOS associated with it, was a useful tool and an improvement over current methods of nutrient TMDL analysis in Maryland. Overall, AVSWAT-X is a moderate to good model for estimating waterbody impairment and conducting TMDL analysis of waterbodies impaired by nutrients.