This dissertation is focused on contextualizing spatio-temporally forest cover loss in the DRC for the period 2000-2015 as it relates to the shifting cultivation dynamic and the rural complex mosaic. Impacts of forest loss on forest ecosystems, carbon release and biodiversity habitat differ depending on where and when it occurs relative to the rural complex. This was done by mapping the rural complex and disaggregating forest cover loss due to cyclical, livelihood shifting cultivation within three areas: 1) the baseline established rural complex (ERC) for 2000 and new 2000-2015 primary forest loss occurring as either 2) rural complex expansion (RCE) or 3) isolated forest perforations (IFP) further into core forest. Finally the influence of large-scale commercial land uses on forest cover loss is also assessed, from a spatial perspective.

Between 2000 and 2010 the rural complex grew by 10% from 12% to 13% of the DRC’s land area, at an average yearly rate of 1%, while perforated forest grew by 74%, from 0.8% to 1.5% of DRC’s land area in 2010 at an average yearly rate of 0.7%. Core forest decreased by -3.8% at an average yearly rate of -0.4% per year, from 38% to 36.6% of the 2010 land area. Of particular concern is the nearly doubling of perforated forest, representing greater spatial intrusion of forest clearing within core forest areas.

The land cover and land use (LCLU) components of the ERC were estimated by photo-interpreting high resolution imagery selected using a simple random sampling scheme. In the ERC 76% of land was already actively used for shifting cultivation. Therefore, together with remnant patches of primary forest (11%), an estimated 87% of the ERC was available for future shifting cultivation. Assuming a 4.6% clearing rate, this allowed estimating a ~18 year reuse rate of land in the ERC. Only 2% of the ERC area was occupied by large-scale commercial land use. This led to positing that commercial land uses might be more prevalent further away from settlements into core forest, where lower population density leads to less competition for natural resources.

This hypothesis was tested by extending the probabilistic sampling analysis to new primary forest cover loss occurring outside of the ERC during the period 2000-2015. The map of the rural complex developed in Chapter 2 was validated, confirming larger proportions of primary forest and smaller proportions of shifting cultivation further away from the ERC and into core forest areas. LCLU proportions were established for both the RCE and IFP areas. Finally a concentric buffer distance analysis around sample points was used to quantify large-scale commercial land uses at the landscape scale, such as logging, mining and plantations that might be influencing shifting cultivation-driven forest cover loss.

In the RCE the proportion of commercial land use was 0.4%, whereas it was 0.5% in IFPs; less than the proportion of commercial land use found in the ERC (2%). At the same time, results of the concentric buffer distance analysis show that 12% of sample points in the RCE and 9% of sample points in the IFP had commercial land uses within 5km. Commercial land uses are possibly more prevalent closer to the ERC because while there is more competition for land, there are also roads and communities that allow for the transportation of goods and provide labor.

These results support the conclusion that large scale LCLU change dynamics in the DRC, such as commercial operations for export, are currently dwarfed by the reliance of rural populations on shifting cultivation. The vast majority of forest cover loss in the DRC remains due to smallholder farming not associated with commercial land uses. However, large-scale agroindustry or resource extraction activities lead to increased forest loss as their worker populations and communities rely on shifting cultivation for food, materials and energy. The spatial analysis of the rural complex allows us to peer into the future of forests in the DRC, as where isolated perforations lead, the rural complex soon follows and as the rural complex expands, so do commercial land uses.