Vehicle Demand Responses of Green Vehicle Taxation Policies and Increased Gasoline Prices

Abstract

The U.S. Federal Highway Trust Fund has experienced significant shortfalls in revenue. This thesis develops three green transportation financing polices based on the fixed vehicle mileage traveled (VMT) fee concept, and analyzes their impact on revenue generation, congestion management, energy/environmental sustainability, and equity. A regression demand model is developed for the analysis. The financing options are compared against a base-case policy of increasing the Federal gas tax by 10 cents/gallon. The distributional impacts of the proposed policies are similar to that of the existing gas tax; green VMT fees and emissions taxes are more regressive, and nation-wide congestion pricing is relatively more progressive. To consider household vehicle ownership number and type decisions, discrete choice models are used. By combining the two modeling techniques with EPA's Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, we see as gas prices increase, total VMT and emission levels decrease and households move to more fuel efficient vehicles.