College of Behavioral & Social Sciences
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The collections in this community comprise faculty research works, as well as graduate theses and dissertations..
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Item A Sample-Based Forest Monitoring Strategy Using Landsat, AVHRR and MODIS Data to Estimate Gross Forest Cover Loss in Malaysia between 1990 and 2005(MDPI, 2013-04-15) Giree, Namita; Stehman, Stephen V.; Potapov, Peter; Hansen, Matthew C.Insular Southeast Asia is a hotspot of humid tropical forest cover loss. A sample-based monitoring approach quantifying forest cover loss from Landsat imagery was implemented to estimate gross forest cover loss for two eras, 1990–2000 and 2000–2005. For each time interval, a probability sample of 18.5 km × 18.5 km blocks was selected, and pairs of Landsat images acquired per sample block were interpreted to quantify forest cover area and gross forest cover loss. Stratified random sampling was implemented for 2000–2005 with MODIS-derived forest cover loss used to define the strata. A probability proportional to x (πpx) design was implemented for 1990–2000 with AVHRR-derived forest cover loss used as the x variable to increase the likelihood of including forest loss area in the sample. The estimated annual gross forest cover loss for Malaysia was 0.43 Mha/yr (SE = 0.04) during 1990–2000 and 0.64 Mha/yr (SE = 0.055) during 2000–2005. Our use of the πpx sampling design represents a first practical trial of this design for sampling satellite imagery. Although the design performed adequately in this study, a thorough comparative investigation of the πpx design relative to other sampling strategies is needed before general design recommendations can be put forth.Item Land-cover and land-use change trajectory hopping facilitates estate-crop expansion into protected forests in Indonesia(Wiley, 2023-05-10) Xin, Yu; Sun, Laixiang; Hansen, Matthew C.Protected areas (PAs) have been regarded as a critical strategy to protect natural forest (NF) and biodiversity. Estate-crop expansion is an important driver of deforestation in Indonesia. Yet, little is known regarding the temporal dynamics of PA effectiveness in preventing estate-crop expansion into NF. We employ Cox proportional hazard models and their extensions to characterize the dynamics of estate-crop expansion into NF in Indonesia during 1996–2015. The results show that PA effectiveness in Sumatra decreased over time and became insignificant in 2012–2015. A multistate modeling analysis shows that hopping in land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC) trajectories with shrub and/or bare ground as intermediates has decreased PA effectiveness and facilitated the expansion. Preventing LCLUC trajectory hopping becomes crucial to biodiversity conservation because it tends to occur at lowland forest, diminishing natural habitat area and increasing NF isolation.Item FOREST CHANGE AND OIL PALM EXPANSION IN INDONESIA: BIOPHYSICAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS(2022) Xin, Yu; Sun, Laixiang; Geography; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Palm oil is the world's most widely used edible oil, and Indonesia has been the largest producer since 2007 and now makes up around 58% of the global market. The oil palm production has benefited the economic growth and lifted the living standards of local people in Indonesia, but this gain is often at the cost of replacing tropical forest, destructing peatland, inducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and reducing biodiversity. The expansion of oil palm plantation in Indonesia is bound to increase as the global demands continue to grow. The challenge of meeting the increased demand for oil palm products while effectively protecting tropical forest and its ecosystem services is an important tradeoff issue for both scientists and policymakers. However, little is known on the expansion patterns of oil palm in Indonesia, especially the underlying drivers with temporal and spatial details. To effectively address the knowledge gaps and deal with the challenges, this dissertation aims to first characterize the historical patterns driven by the variations in the benefits and costs of oil palm expansion across space and over time. It then projects the possible future spatial patterns and estimates the potential loss of land with high environmental values in order to meet the future global demand for oil palm products. This dissertation consists of three principle essays. The first essay identifies the major land sources of oil palm expansion in Indonesia with temporal details, and reveals the joint role of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers in shaping the spatial patterns of oil palm expansion by employing spatial panel models at the regency level. The second essay focuses on the temporal dynamics of the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers and the timing of estate crop (mainly oil palm) expansion by using Cox proportional hazard models (CPHMs) and their extensions with time-variant effects at the 1km × 1km grid level. It also explores the role of land use and land cover change (LCLUC) trajectory hopping in estate crop expansion into natural forest by introducing multi-state survival analysis to land-use science. The third essay projects the export demand for oil palm products from Indonesia by 2050 under different global trade scenarios with generalized geo-economic gravity models, and quantifies the possible tradeoffs between oil palm expansion and environmental conservation by allocating the projected demand to 1km × 1km grids across Indonesia applying parametric survival analysis. This study indicates that oil palm expansion in Indonesia has been strongly stimulated by the export value of oil palm products and prefers land with good biophysical suitability and infrastructure accessibility. As land resources become more limited, the effects of socioeconomic factors decrease following the ‘pecking order’ sequence, and the plantation expands into remote but fertile areas with high conversion costs or legal barriers. The degraded land surpassed natural forest and became the major direct land source of oil palm expansion in recent years, but degraded land had increasingly served as a land banking mechanism and a clearing-up tactic. This LCLUC trajectory hopping mechanism has made the protected area (PA) designations and sustainable development requirements become less and less effective in protecting tropical natural forest. Lowland secondary forest and peatland are the high-environmental-value (HEV) areas with the highest risks of conversion to oil palm plantation. To cope with the LCLUC trajectory hopping mechanism, Indonesia needs to have well-designed and fully enforced policies which limit/ban expansion into protected areas, peatland conversion, and deforestation of both primary and secondary forest. The country also needs more effective economic compensation mechanisms to promote more environment-friendly oil palm plantation. In this way, it is possible for Indonesia to maintain its leading position in oil palm production and exportation, while enhancing its role in environmental protection, such as climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation. This dissertation improves our understanding of oil palm expansion in Indonesia by integrating economic science theory, advanced econometric techniques, and the best available remote-sensing data. It adds to the existing literature on analyzing the impacts of human behaviors on LCLUC at various spatial and temporal scales, especially from a longitudinal perspective.Item A Forest of Complexity: An Ethnographic Assessment of REDD+ Implementation in Indonesia(2016) Enrici, Ashley; Hubacek, Klaus; Geography; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) is a global initiative aimed at curbing carbon emissions from forest cover change. Indonesia, one of the most biodiverse places on the planet with the third largest extent of tropical forest, has been extensively involved in REDD+. Despite commitments from the government of Indonesia and the international community, the deforestation rate has not stabilized or decreased in the years since REDD+'s introduction in 2007. As of 2012, it was arguably the highest in the world. While there is an extensive body of literature on REDD+, the need for grounded observations from the field could clarify existing challenges and inform future pursuits. This dissertation presents the results of over two years of ethnographic research in Indonesia on REDD+. Qualitative data collection techniques such as participant observation, site visits and interviews provide a rich tapestry of data that was analyzed in combination with scholarly literature and policy. The research finds that despite a number of changes to laws and regulations resulting from REDD+ implementation in Indonesia, weak institutional capacity and corruption have negated gains. The results of a case study of three REDD+ project sites identify important criteria at the root of success or failure: finance, community, boundary enforcement, monitoring, and outcomes of attempted carbon sequestration and biodiversity preservation. Challenges identified for each criteria include a lack of sufficient funding opportunities; inability to enforce boundaries due to corruption; and lack of a solid plan for involving communities. Carbon sequestration and biodiversity preservation results were mixed due to lack of monitoring and problems with encroachment. Finally the results of the qualitative data collection with stakeholders indicates a crisis of confidence among REDD+ stakeholders; cultural barriers to communication; a disconnect between international rhetoric and local reality; corruption and governance issues resulting in a lack of pathways for project implementation. I argue that changes must be made to Indonesian policy, monitoring technologies must be utilized, and stakeholders need to address some of the problems discussed here in order to save REDD+ from crisis.Item Advancing Indonesian Forest Resource Monitoring Using Multi-Source Remotely Sensed Imagery(2014) Margono, Belinda Arunarwati; Hansen, Matthew C; Geography; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Tropical forest clearing threatens the sustainability of critically important global ecosystems services, including climate regulation and biodiversity. Indonesia is home to the world's third largest tropical forest and second highest rate of deforestation; as such, it plays an important role in both increasing greenhouse gas emissions and loss of biodiversity. In this study, a method is implemented for quantifying Indonesian primary forest loss by landform, including wetlands. A hybrid approach is performed for quantifying the extent and change of primary forest as intact and degraded types using a per-pixel supervised classification mapping followed by a GIS-based fragmentation analysis. The method was prototyped in Sumatra, and later employed for the entirety of Indonesia, and can be replicated across the tropics in support of REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) initiatives. Mapping of Indonesia's wetlands was performed using cloud-free Landsat image mosaics, ALOS-PALSAR imagery and topographic indices derived from the SRTM. Results quantify an increasing rate of primary forest loss over Indonesia from 2000 to 2012. Of the 15.79 Mha of gross forest cover loss for Indonesia reported by Hansen et al. (2013) over this period, 38% or 6.02 Mha occurred within primary intact or degraded forests, and increased on average by 47,600 ha per year. By 2012, primary forest loss in Indonesia was estimated to be higher than Brazil (0.84 Mha to 0.47 Mha). Almost all clearing of primary forests (>90%) occurred within degraded types, meaning logging preceded conversion processes. Proportional loss of primary forests in wetlands increased with more intensive clearing of wetland forests in Sumatra compared to Kalimantan or Papua, reflecting a near-exhaustion of easily accessible lowland forests in Sumatra. Kalimantan had a more balanced ratio of wetland and lowland primary forest loss, indicating a less advanced state of natural forest transition. Papua was found to have a more nascent stage of forest exploitation with much of the clearing related to logging activities, largely road construction. Loss within official forest-land uses that restrict or prohibit clearing totaled 40% of all loss within national forest-land, another indication of a dwindling resource. Methods demonstrated in this study depict national scale primary forest change in Indonesia, a theme that until this study has not been quantified at high spatial (30m) and temporal (annual) resolutions. The increasing loss of Indonesian primary forests found in this study has significant implications for climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation efforts.Item Modernization, Life Course, and Marriage Timing in Indonesia(2005-12-06) Sundaram, Aparna; Vanneman, Reeve; Sociology; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Past research on marriage timing in Asia has found the modernization framework to be insufficient for explaining and understanding the processes of marriage and non-marriage. Using insights provided by research on marriage timing in Western societies, we examine the determinants of marriage and non-marriage for Indonesian men and women using the 1993 and 1997 waves of the Indonesian Family Life Survey dataset. Using a logit and a hierarchical model we examine the characteristics of unmarried men and women at time 1 who had married by time 2. We find that the basic correlates of the process of industrialization - education and work-force participation have counter-intuitive associations with marriage. While level of education does nothing to delay marriage, being enrolled in school keeps people away from marriage. Work force participation in contrast increases the odds of people's marriage while earnings from work have no effect. Based on our results we argue that the processes of marriage and non-marriage are best understood using a life course perspective. The life course perspective examines how the social context that people live in influences their lives, and determines their life trajectories, and the choices they make. Seen from this perspective, events such as marriage are a part of a person's life course that follows a normative sequence. People get married at that stage in their life when they are considered ready for it. When they are in school they are viewed as minors who are not suited to starting and raising a family whereas people who are working are viewed as adults who have the stability to take on the responsibilities of a married life.