Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland

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    Clouds of Suspicion: Airspace Arrangements, Escalation, and Discord in U.S./NATO-Russian Relations
    (Center for International & Security Studies at Maryland, 2016-05-02) Loukianova, Anya
    Policy makers in the Euro-Atlantic region are concerned that incidents involving military or civilian aircraft could result in dangerous escalation of conflict between Russia and the West. This brief introduces the policy problem and traces the evolution of three sets of cooperative airspace arrangements developed by Euro-Atlantic states since the end of the Cold War—(1) cooperative aerial surveillance of military activity, (2) exchange of air situational data, and (3) joint engagement of theater air and missile threats—in order to clarify the current regional airspace insecurity dynamics and identify opportunities to promote transparency and confidence in U.S./NATO-Russian relations.
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    Developing a Nuclear Material Control and Accounting System in Russia
    (2013-12) Kovchegin, Dmitry
    When considering the requirements for a global nuclear material accounting system, Russia’s experience in developing its domestic system deserves special attention for four reasons: First, Russia’s nuclear complex includes all of the types of nuclear facilities and nuclear material handling procedures that would be subject to a global system. Second, Russia has significant experience transitioning from an outdated system to a modern one. Third, Russia has operated its nuclear complex in a financially constrained environment and has relied in part on international assistance. Finally, the Russian nuclear complex is managed by many agencies with their own agendas, priorities, and visions of nuclear material accounting. This experience with an interagency environment may be a model for other countries. As a major nuclear power—in both military and civilian applications—Russia possesses all possible types of nuclear facilities, including all types of nuclear reactors, a complete range of fuel cycle facilities, storage sites, and several types of nuclear ships. Russia also possesses a wide variety of nuclear materials, including all types of uranium and various isotopic compositions of plutonium. These materials exist in both items and bulk accounting forms, as well is in a number of physical forms including metals, oxides, solutions, and salts. These materials are subject to a broad range of operations–at both the industrial scale and in smaller quantities for research purposes. Russia is also heavily involved in the domestic and international trade of nuclear materials. This results in a significant volume of nuclear materials transport—to include changes in ownership and in control and accounting requirements and systems. Russia began transitioning from its Soviet-era nuclear material accounting systems in the early 1990s. The Soviet Union was home to a comprehensive nuclear industry and nuclear materials accounting system. Thus, a modern system based on new standards had to be introduced into an operating nuclear complex. This process has confronted many challenges, in part because of the major cultural change that it required. After nearly 20 years of evolving the Russian system, some important issues remain unresolved.
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    Micro-Level Analysis of Civil Violence: An Event Data Analysis of Kenya, Georgia-Russia, and Mexico
    (2012-08) Jones, Kevin
    Research on civil violence and political instability has yielded important baseline information about the conditions that have the potential to increase risks for mass violence, political instability, or state failure. Limits on data collection, analysis, and interpretation immediately before and during outbreaks of conflict, however, constrain analysts from identifying which conflict-prone country will descend into political instability or violence in time for a targeted intervention or effective response. This paper presents a conceptual framework for analyzing the heterogeneous and dynamic character of local conflict. This work is anchored in the need to describe conflict dynamics as they occur, to understand in real-time the political, economic, and social drivers and to gather high-resolution (e.g. local, disaggregated) data to analyze social instability. The paper demonstrates the effectiveness of such a framework and applies it to three case studies: the Kenyan presidential election of 2007, the Georgia-South Ossetian war in 2008, and the Mexico drug wars in 2010. The case-study results suggest that the analysis of high-resolution event data immediately prior to two of the conflicts could have enabled early detection and warning of the potential for large-scale civil violence. The third case provides retrospective analytical insight into local conflict dynamics. This paper argues that in an era of non-state actors, emergent conflict, and natural resource pressures, a new conceptual approach to event data collection and analytical process can provide low-cost, near real-time monitoring and evaluation of ongoing and potential conflicts in multiple languages and regions.