Atmospheric & Oceanic Science
Permanent URI for this communityhttp://hdl.handle.net/1903/2264
Formerly known as the Department of Meteorology.
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Item Observed Relationship of Ozone air Pollution with Temperature and Emissions(American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2009) Bloomer, Bryan J. ; Stehr, Jeffrey W. ; Piety, Charles A.; Salawitch, Ross J.; Dickerson, Russell R.Higher temperatures caused by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are predicted to exacerbate photochemical smog if precursor emissions remain constant. We perform a statistical analysis of 21 years of ozone and temperature observations across the rural eastern U.S. The climate penalty factor is defined as the slope of the ozone/temperature relationship. For two precursor emission regimes, before and after 2002, the climate penalty factor was consistent across the distribution of ozone observations. Prior to 2002, ozone increased by an average of ~3.2 ppbv/°C. After 2002, power plant NOx emissions were reduced by 43%, ozone levels fell ~10%, and the climate penalty factor dropped to ~2.2 ppbv/°C. NOx controls are effective for reducing photochemical smog and might lessen the severity of projected climate change penalties. Air quality models should be evaluated against these observations, and the climate penalty factor metric may be useful for evaluating the response of ozone to climate change.Item The Sensitivity of Modeled Ozone to the Temporal Distribution of Point, Area, and Mobile Emissions in the Eastern US(Elsevier, 2009) Castellanos, Patricia; Ehrman, Sheryl H.; Stehr, Jeffrey W.; Dickerson, Russell R.Ozone remains one of the most recalcitrant air pollution problems in the US. Hourly emissions fields used in air quality models (AQMs) generally show less temporal variability than corresponding measurements. In order to understand how the daily cycle of estimated emissions affects modeled ozone, we analyzed the effects of altering all anthropogenic emissions’ temporal distributions by source group 2 on 2002 summer-long simulations of ozone using the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) v4.5 and the carbon bond IV (CBIV) chemical mechanism with a 12 km grid. We find that when mobile source emissions were made constant over the course of a day, 8-hour maximum ozone predictions changed by ±7 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) in urban areas on days when ozone concentrations greater than 80 ppbv were simulated in the base case. Increasing the temporal variation of point sources resulted in ozone changes of +6 and –6 ppbv, but only for small areas near sources. Changing the daily cycle of mobile source emissions produces substantial changes in simulated ozone, especially in urban areas at night; implications for abatement strategy are discussed.Item Air Pollution Response to Changing Weather and Power Plant Emissions in the Eastern United States(2008-11-20) Bloomer, Bryan Jaye; Dickerson, Russell R; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Air pollution in the eastern United States causes human sickness and death as well as damage to crops and materials. NOX emission reduction is observed to improve air quality. Effectively reducing pollution in the future requires understanding the connections between smog, precursor emissions, weather, and climate change. Numerical models predict global warming will exacerbate smog over the next 50 years. My analysis of 21 years of CASTNET observations quantifies a climate change penalty. I calculate, for data collected prior to 2002, a climate penalty factor of ~3.3 ppb O3/°C across the power plant dominated receptor regions in the rural, eastern U.S. Recent reductions in NOX emissions decreased the climate penalty factor to ~2.2 ppb O3/°C. Prior to 1995, power plant emissions of CO2, SO2, and NOX were estimated with fuel sampling and analysis methods. Currently, emissions are measured with continuous monitoring equipment (CEMS) installed directly in stacks. My comparison of the two methods show CO2 and SO2 emissions are ~5% lower when inferred from fuel sampling; greater differences are found for NOX emissions. CEMS are the method of choice for emission inventories and commodity trading and should be the standard against which other methods are evaluated for global greenhouse gas trading policies. I used CEMS data and applied chemistry transport modeling to evaluate improvements in air quality observed by aircraft during the North American electrical blackout of 2003. An air quality model produced substantial reductions in O3, but not as much as observed. The study highlights weaknesses in the model as commonly used for evaluating a single day event and suggests areas for further investigation. A new analysis and visualization method quantifies local-daily to hemispheric-seasonal scale relationships between weather and air pollution, confirming improved air quality despite increasing temperatures across the eastern U.S. Climate penalty factors indicate amplified smog formation in areas of the world with rising temperatures and increasing emissions. Tools developed in this dissertation provide data for model evaluation and methods for establishing air quality standards with an adequate margin of safety for cleaning the air and protecting the public's health in a world with changing climate.