Public Policy Theses and Dissertations
Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://hdl.handle.net/1903/2803
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Item The Role of the Magnitsky Transnational Advocacy Network in the Selection of Sanctions Targets(2024) Massaro, Arthur Paul; Reuter, Peter; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)This research is an exploratory study of foreign policy decision-making regarding Global Magnitsky and other targeted human rights and anti-corruption sanctions. It examines the consequences of a unique provision of the Magnitsky law requiring the government to consider information provided by civil society. This provision led to the generation of a transnational advocacy network dedicated to expanding targets of the Global Magnitsky program and eventually expanding further into advocating for the adoption of Magnitsky-style sanctions in other jurisdictions, as well as providing information for all manner of targeted human rights and anti-corruption sanctions. This research analyzes how this network has been able to influence U.S. foreign policy and the foreign policy of U.S. allies and, more broadly, what this means for transnational relations, sanctions, and civil society. I use qualitative interviews as well as numerous primary sources to trace the process of the evolution of the Magnitsky transnational advocacy network. I demonstrate that there exists such a network, that it is influencing decision-making through its deep integration of civil society and government and the provision of specialized information, and that the conditions for network influence depend on the culture and preferences of enforcing agencies, which I identify.Item Assessing The Global War On Terror: Measuring The Impact Of US Foreign Terrorist Organization Designation On Salafi Jihadist Group Behavior(2023) Sturm, Amy Buenning; Gallagher, Nancy; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)This study evaluates the impact of foreign terrorist organization (FTO) designation, a core US counterterrorism tool that unlocks legal, financial, and administrative penalties for terrorist groups, against Salafi jihadist terrorist organizations. Using publicly available data from 2001 to 2018, this research takes a quantitative and qualitative mixed methods approach to evaluate if FTO designation of Salafi jihadist terrorist groups alters their behavior by reducing terrorist membership or changing their attack patterns and lethality. The quantitative portion examines the impact of designation across three primary dependent variable behavior categories: group and membership size; attacks and lethality; and targeting. The qualitative portion looks at the range of possible best to worst case behavior outcomes for groups after designation and seeks to determine which, if any, designation-associated activities drove a reduction in violence. In this study FTO designation did not advance US policy objectives of reducing terrorist group and membership size, decreasing the number and lethality of attacks, or hardening targets against Salafi jihadist attack. Post-designation Salafi jihadist areas of operations experienced overall growth in the number of groups and membership. FTO designation reverses some pre-designation trends in rising attack frequency and lethality, but the results are not statistically significant. Moreover, designation does not significantly impact group targets or attack type. The qualitative case studies use US government reported data on designation-associated activities alongside captured media to explain variance in group outcomes post-designation. The case studies reveal that a terrorist group’s international versus national presence prior to designation better explains variation in outcomes than designation-associated activities. Groups able to flex across national boundaries were seemingly more resilient to CT pressure. The most international group was the most unaffected by designation, while the most nationally focused group was the most impacted. While FTO designation was not causally linked to the desired Salafi jihadist behavioral outcomes, the directional shift in some groups attack frequency and lethality shortly following designation suggest designation’s impact warrants further study, including gathering improved official data and yearly metrics on designation-associated effects. As the US reduces its CT footprint, FTO designation and associated metrics can help guide future operations to target Salafi jihadist groups more efficiently, informing future US government CT efforts.Item U.S. NUCLEAR ENERGY COOPERATION AND PARTNER COUNTRY NONPROLIFERATION: CASE STUDIES FROM EAST ASIA(2022) Siegel, Jonas Elliott; Gallagher, Nancy; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)U.S. policy makers are promoting U.S. civilian nuclear exports as a means of influencing the nonproliferation policies of foreign governments and of achieving U.S. nuclear nonproliferation objectives. This approach to nonproliferation policy making assumes that engaging in international civilian nuclear cooperation is effective at influencing partner country nonproliferation commitments and behavior, and that it is more efficient and effective than other means of achieving similar nonproliferation goals. This dissertation tests these assumptions by examining the historical nonproliferation impact of U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation on three countries who sought to build civilian nuclear power programs with U.S. assistance: Japan, South Korea, and China. These case studies place U.S. civilian nuclear energy cooperation in the context of broader U.S. security and economic relations with these countries, and provide a nuanced understanding of each countries’ rationales for engaging in nuclear cooperation and nonproliferation in the first place. This dissertation also develops a novel approach to measuring nonproliferation that focuses on a country’s nonproliferation behavior in addition to its policy commitments. It also assesses whether particular types and stages of U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation and/or the characteristics of U.S. partners affect the strength and direction of the relationship between nuclear cooperation and nonproliferation. In examining multiple periods of U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation with each country, this dissertation finds that U.S. civilian nuclear energy cooperation—and more specifically, the process of negotiating and renegotiating the terms of nuclear cooperation—can be effective ways to induce U.S. partner countries to adopt nonproliferation commitments. This is particularly the case when U.S. partners are energy insecure and rely predominantly (or exclusively) on foreign assistance in developing their civilian nuclear programs. U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation coupled with U.S. security cooperation (including nuclear security guarantees) can often win U.S. policy makers additional, detailed nonproliferation commitments from partner countries that are not possible with security cooperation alone. The dissertation also finds that U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation has limited impact on the nonproliferation behaviors of U.S. partners in the short run once they formally make nonproliferation commitments. In all three cases, U.S. partners’ nonproliferation behaviors improve over time, but these improvements are due to the partners’ internalization of global nonproliferation norms and partners’ development of their own nonproliferation logic, rather than the influence of U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation. Frequent changes in U.S. nonproliferation preferences and, in particular, the divergence of U.S. nonproliferation preferences from the baseline tenets of the multilateral nonproliferation regime make it costly and difficult for the United States to maintain influence on partner countries’ nonproliferation commitments and behaviors over time with civilian nuclear cooperation. On account of these findings, this dissertation argues that in many situations, U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation is not an effective means of achieving U.S. nonproliferation objectives. Compared to other possible courses of action, such as reinforcing multilateral nonproliferation agreements and norms, or engaging in nonproliferation capacity building, U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation is also not efficient in achieving U.S. aims. Should U.S. policy makers continue to pursue civilian nuclear cooperation as a means of achieving U.S. nonproliferation objectives, they should be aware of the conditions that are most conducive to U.S. nonproliferation influence, and they should be realistic about the challenges and costs associated with maintaining that influence over time.Item Assessing Motives for Russian Federation Use and Non-use of Force: An Approach to Improve the Strategic Planning and Policy of the United States(2021) Hickey, Christopher John; Gallagher, Nancy W.; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)The purpose of this dissertation is to inform scholarship and improve U.S. policy and strategy to prevent the Russian Federation from using military force against U.S. interests. It does this by exploring and answering the question, what explains the Russian Federation’s choices on the use of military force? The dissertation developed and demonstrated an approach to translating policy debates into sufficiently rigorous sets of competing explanations of strategic behavior for expectations about future behavior under various conditions to be stated and tested. The explanations developed and tested used motives derived from The Rational Theory of International Politics by Glaser and The Logic of Political Survival by Bueno De Mesquita, Smith, Siverson, and Morrow. Systematic analysis of competing explanations attempted to find incongruence between the expectations if a motive was a plausible explanation and the behaviors actually observed since 1991. This dissertation found that the Russian Federation’s choices on the use of military force are explainable by the balancing of three motives. These choices have prioritized first the motive of the president’s political survival, then Russia’s self-protection/security motive, and then Russia’s domination/greed motive. This suggests that the Russian Federation calculates risks when making these choices differently than currently assumed. The most important risks influencing these decisions are those related to the future of the Russian president’s political winning coalition. These findings allow the U.S. to take a game theory-informed approach to strategic planning that seeks to prevent the use of military force against U.S. interests at a lower level of costs and risks than the current approach. The United States should develop a strategy to foster three somewhat contradictory calculations simultaneously. The U.S. strategy needs to communicate that the negative consequences of using force would outweigh whatever potential benefit might tempt the domination/greed motive. At the same time, the strategy needs to communicate that if Russia acts with restraint, then Russian self-protection/security motive concerns will be addressed cooperatively. Most importantly, the strategy needs to influence the Russian president’s calculations about whether using or not using force against U.S. interests would be better for personal political survival.Item Do Intergovernmental Organizations Drive the Growth of Voluntary Cooperation on Climate Change?(2020) Sapatnekar, Poorti; Orr, Robert C; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Voluntary cooperation on climate change has grown rapidly since 2000, and presents a potential pathway to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Many intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) seek to cultivate such multi-stakeholder partnerships or international cooperative initiatives in greenhouse gas-emitting sectors. But are IGOs an effective class of actors to do so? Evidence has lagged behind practice. This study fills three gaps in empirical knowledge: (1) Have large-scale efforts by IGOs (such as summits) to promote voluntary cooperation caused the growth of cooperation? If so, how? (2) By participating in partnerships within specific sectors, to what degree have IGOs influenced the growth of voluntary cooperation in those sectors? (3) How do large-scale IGO efforts interact with IGOs working within initiatives, and what is their combined effect on the quality of initiatives? This study analyses large-scale efforts during 2000-2015, and conducts three case studies, in forests, short-lived climate pollutants, and land transport. Two methods are employed: qualitative process tracing (including 71 interviews) and dynamic social network analysis of a dataset comprising 252 initiatives and their participants. Community detection and node centrality measures probe for influence over time. This study finds that: (1) Cooperative initiatives form sectoral ecosystems among inter-connected entities. New initiatives represent evolutionary changes to the strength—or quality—of cooperation within sectors. Thus, the quality of cooperation must be assessed at the sectoral level in addition to the initiative level; (2) Many IGOs participate in partnerships, but a select few have become central community-builders and these few wield strong influence over the evolution of the sectoral ecosystems; (3) IGOs (and governments) that have convening power and autonomy can choreograph a surge in the growth of voluntary cooperation. Of all IGOs, having established a ‘good offices’ role on climate change, the office of the UN Secretary-General is uniquely able to do so; (4) The surge requires six organizational attributes, which together characterize “collective choreography of cooperation”: strategic timing, high visibility, sectoral orientation, emphasis on ambitious cooperative commitments; subsidiarity, and leadership with centralized decision-making; and (5) Sustained and adequate institutional support is necessary for the gains of collective choreography to be impactful.Item Investment and Economic Performance in Europe: The Role of the Investment Climate(2020) Schwarzenberg Zilberstein, Andres; Swagel, Phillip L; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)This dissertation investigates how investment, the investment climate, and economic integration affect the economic performance of 31 European countries. A major contribution is the development of two new composite indicators—the European Investment Attractiveness Index (IAI) and the European Union (EU) Economic Integration Index (EEI). The study conceptualizes the investment climate both as a multidimensional construct and as a framework for understanding how political, economic, and social factors interact and affect the attractiveness of a country for foreign and domestic investment. In addition, it considers how trade, financial, monetary, and value chain relationships have shaped the process of economic integration at the EU level. The study then uses the indices to examine the impact of foreign and domestic investment on gross domestic product (GDP). The results from cross-country regression and dynamic panel data analyses reveal that both types of investment have a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Europe (although, notably, exports seem to have a larger impact than either foreign or domestic investment). Moreover, this study finds that the investment climate matters for economic performance. Attractive investment climates and higher levels of economic integration—particularly among the Central and Eastern European economies—are associated with higher per capita GDP levels and growth rates. Finally, the dissertation examines the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), exports, and GDP in 11 countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). While the goal is not to establish “true” causality, the results show that links between foreign investment, exports, and GDP differ significantly across these countries. While for many of them there is a reinforcing relationship between foreign investment and GDP, there does not seem to be a “causal” relationship between their exports and GDP. These findings challenge the validity of policy guidelines that emphasize—often almost exclusively—attracting foreign investment and boosting exports for development under the assumption that FDI or exports “cause” growth. Thus, policies aimed at improving the fundamentals of these economies (i.e., the investment climate) might be key in generating and sustaining economic growth.Item Psychological Well-being and Health Gains in the Developing World: Evidence from Peru and Malawi(2018) Dickerson, Sarah; Graham, Carol; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)In this dissertation, I assess the relationship between psychological well-being and health gains in Peru and Malawi. The first chapter consists of a comprehensive and systematic examination of research that frames the quantitative analyses found in the second and third chapters. It investigates literature on the relationship between maternal well-being and multiple dimensions of health in children and adolescents. It also explains how maternal depression may interact with poverty to worsen offspring’s outcomes. Then, it explores literature on the association between catastrophic health expenditure in Malawi and two of its potential predictors: unexplained happiness and access to antiretroviral therapy (ART), a treatment regimen for people living with HIV/AIDS. The second chapter assesses the impacts of maternal depression and life satisfaction on children in Peru. Using panel data from rounds three (2009-2010) and four (2013-2014) of Young Lives Peru, I find that children’s self-reported life satisfaction and health positively correlate with maternal life satisfaction and negatively associate with maternal depression. Furthermore, maternal life satisfaction predicts whether a female adolescent smokes, while maternal depression predicts smoking behavior and misinformation on pregnancy amongst male adolescents. The third chapter investigates the relationships between household catastrophic health expenditure in Malawi and two predictors, antiretroviral therapy (ART) and unexplained happiness. Using data from round two (2004-2005) and round three (2010-2011) of Malawi’s Integrated Household Survey, I find that proximity to ART-providing clinics and higher levels of psychological well-being associate with reduced likelihood of catastrophic health expenditure.Item Turkish Security Policymaking on Nuclear Issues: Conceptualizing Advanced Cooperative Security Strategies(2016) Goren, Nilsu; Gallagher, Nancy W.; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Turkey is a non-nuclear member of a nuclear alliance in a region where nuclear proliferation is of particular concern. As the only North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member that has a border with the Middle East, Turkish officials argue that Turkey cannot solely rely on NATO guarantees in addressing the regional security challenges. However, Turkey has not been able to formulate a security policy that reconciles its quest for independence, its NATO membership, the bilateral relationship with the United States, and regional engagement in the Middle East. This dissertation assesses the strategic implications of Turkey’s perceptions of the U.S./NATO nuclear and conventional deterrence on nuclear issues. It explores three case studies by the process tracing of Turkish policymakers’ nuclear-related decisions on U.S. tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Europe, national air and missile defense, and Iran’s nuclear program. The study finds that the principles of Turkish security policymaking do not incorporate a fundamentally different reasoning on nuclear issues than conventional deterrence. Nuclear weapons and their delivery systems do not have a defining role in Turkish security and defense strategy. The decisions are mainly guided by non-nuclear considerations such as Alliance politics, modernization of the domestic defense industry, and regional influence. The dissertation argues that Turkey could formulate more effective and less risky security policies on nuclear issues by emphasizing the cooperative security approaches within the NATO Alliance over confrontational measures. The findings of this dissertation reveal that a major transformation of Turkish security policymaking is required to end the crisis of confidence with NATO, redefinition of the strategic partnership with the US, and a more cautious approach toward the Middle East. The dissertation argues that Turkey should promote proactive measures to reduce, contain, and counter risks before they develop into real threats, as well as contribute to developing consensual confidence-building measures to reduce uncertainty.Item Clouds of Suspicion: Airspace Arrangements, Escalation, and Discord in U.S./NATO-Russian Relations(2016) Loukianova, Anna; Destler, I.M.; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)How have cooperative airspace arrangements contributed to cooperation and discord in the Euro-Atlantic region? This study analyzes the role of three sets of airspace arrangements developed by Euro-Atlantic states since the end of the Cold War—(1) cooperative aerial surveillance of military activity, (2) exchange of air situational data, and (3) joint engagement of theater air and missile threats—in political-military relations among neighbors and within the region. These arrangements provide insights into the integration of Central and Eastern European states into Western security institutions, and the current discord that centers on the conflict in Ukraine and Russia’s place in regional security. The study highlights the role of airspace incidents as contributors to conflict escalation and identifies opportunities for transparency- and confidence-building measures to improve U.S./NATO-Russian relations. The study recommends strengthening the Open Skies Treaty in order to facilitate the resolution of conflicts and improve region-wide military transparency. It notes that political-military arrangements for engaging theater air and missile threats created by NATO and Russia over the last twenty years are currently postured in a way that divides the region and inhibits mutual security. In turn, the U.S.-led Regional Airspace Initiatives that facilitated the exchange of air situational data between NATO and then-NATO-aspirants such as Poland and the Baltic states, offer a useful precedent for improving air sovereignty and promoting information sharing to reduce the fear of war among participating states. Thus, projects like NATO’s Air Situational Data Exchange and the NATO-Russia Council Cooperative Airspace Initiative—if extended to the exchange of data about military aircraft—have the potential to buttress deterrence and contribute to conflict prevention. The study concludes that documenting the evolution of airspace arrangements since the end of the Cold War contributes to understanding of the conflicting narratives put forward by Russia, the West, and the states “in-between” with respect to reasons for the current state of regional security. The long-term project of developing a zone of stable peace in the Euro-Atlantic must begin with the difficult task of building inclusive security institutions to accommodate the concerns of all regional actors.Item WHEN COERCION BACKFIRES: THE LIMITS OF COERCIVE DIPLOMACY IN IRAN.(2015) Mohseni Cheraghlou, Ebrahim; Steinbruner, John D; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Coercive diplomacy is a deceivingly attractive strategy. If it can be made to work, it has the potential of achieving foreign policy objectives with considerably fewer costs. But when adopted in unconducive circumstances, the strategy has the potential to backfire and make peaceful resolution of conflicts more difficult. Since 2002, when the full scope of Iran's nuclear program and ambitions were revealed to the public, the United States has primarily relied on coercive diplomacy to force Iran to accept limitations and oversight that go beyond the NPT and Iran's safeguards agreement. This dissertation assesses how Iran's nuclear policy and program has been affected by US and UNSC sanctions. It argues that not only has coercive diplomacy failed to persuade Iran to accept binding selective constraints on its fuel cycle activities, but it has also triggered a series of reactions that have strengthened Iran's determination to advance, enhance, and expand its nuclear fuel cycle program. The findings of this dissertation corroborate the conclusions of most other scholars that have studied coercive diplomacy. Indeed, the recurrent failure of coercive diplomacy is rooted in the strategy's neglect of the reality that national-level decisions are the resultant of the pulling and hauling of various forces within the target state and that in dealing with objectionable policies of states, one must seek to weaken the forces that promote and strengthen those that oppose the objectionable policy. In the case of Iran, sanctions have done the opposite. They have intensified Iranian distrust of the US and the post-war international order and have consequently augmented the forces in Iran that promote and have weakened those that oppose Iran's nuclear fuel cycle program. Taking the factors that drive and shape Iran's nuclear policy, this dissertation argues that the proliferation risks of Iran's nuclear program could be resolved more quickly, reliably, and effectively through arrangements that are based on mutually acknowledged rights and equitable principles than through arrangements based on coercion.