APPLYING MARYLAND STATEWIDE ACTIVITY-BASED TRANSPORTATION MODEL TO HIGH-SPEED RAIL AND FUTURE FUEL PRICE SCENARIOS

Abstract

Maryland Statewide Transportation Model 2.0 (MSTM 2.0) is composed of a Statewide Activity-based Travel Demand Model for Short-distance Travel at its core and two supporting models: An Activity-based Travel Demand Model for Long-distance Travel; and a Tour-based Travel Demand Model for Freight Travel. Therefore, MSTM 2.0 is a microsimulation model system within the activity-based framework for passenger travel, and tour-based framework for freight travel.

These capabilities of MSTM 2.0 will enable policy makers to observe effects of their policies on different segments of population (e.g. income groups), which will lead to more equitable policies. In addition, it will help monitoring how travelers’ behavior and their activities change after certain transportation or land use policy is implemented.

This thesis aims to demonstrate how MSTM 2.0 can be applied to different future scenarios; First, we test two different future fuel pricing scenarios considering the growth in market penetration of electric vehicles. MSTM 2.0 is revised to reflect how changes in light-duty vehicles fleet will change the auto operation cost and therefore alter the travel patterns for different segments of population in future. Second, the proposed high-speed rail Maglev project is implemented in the model to capture all the possible outcomes of adding a high-speed rail in the Northeast corridor between Washington D.C. and Baltimore.

The results of this thesis can support state transportation policymaking by providing a comprehensive estimation of the effects that two likely future scenarios will have on Maryland transportation system.