Modeling Recurrent Emergency Department Trends in the United States

Abstract

Emergency departments around the United States struggle with staff shortages and overcrowding following the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting shutdowns. This study aims to create and examine models representing the probability of patients requiring multiple emergency department visits to better understand why some patients require recurrent emergency department treatments. The two models considered in this experiment are the Poisson Process and the “Frequent Flyer” Hypotheses. Ultimately, analyzing the data provided by the National Center for Health Statistics revealed that the Poisson Process does not accurately represent the realities of recurrent emergency department visits, but the “Frequent Flyer” Hypothesis does in some situations. It also revealed that there may be several lurking variables that compound to determine if a patient will require multiple emergency department visits, accounting for the inconsistencies of the “Frequent Flyer” Hypothesis.