Prediction of Marine Timber Pile Damage Ratings Using a Gradient Boosted Regression Model

Abstract

Marine pilings are critical structural elements exposed to harsh environmental conditions. Specialized routine inspection and regular maintenance are essential to keep marine facilities in good working condition. These activities generate data that can be exploited for knowledge gain with machine learning tools. A gradient boosted random forest regressor machine learning algorithm, XGBoost, was applied to datasets that contain timber pile underwater inspection and repair data over a period of 23 years. First, the data was visualized to show the longevity of different timber pile repair types. An XGBoost model was then tuned and trained on a dataset for timber piles at one pier. Variables in the dataset were evaluated for feature importance in predicting damage ratings assigned during routine underwater inspections. Next, an ensemble of XGBoost models was trained and applied to a second dataset containing the same features for an adjacent pier. This dataset was reserved for testing to demonstrate whether the ensemble trained on one pier’s data could be generalized to predict timber pile damage ratings at a nearby but separate pier. Finally, the ensemble was used to predict damage ratings on piles that had earlier data but were not rated in the two most recent inspection events. Results suggest that the ensemble is capable of predicting timber pile damage ratings to approximately +/- one damage rating on both the training and test datasets. Feature importances revealed that half of the variables (time since the first event, repair type, exposed pile length, and time since the last repair) contributed to two thirds of the relative importance in predicting damage ratings. Data visualization showed that a few repair types, such as pile replacements and encapsulations, appeared to be most successful over the long term compared with shorter-lived repairs like wraps and encasements. These results are promising indications of the advantages machine learning algorithms can offer in processing and gleaning new insights from structural repair and inspection data. Economic benefits to marine facility owners can potentially be realized through earlier anticipation of repairs and more targeted inspection and rehabilitation efforts. There are also opportunities for better understanding of deterioration rates if more data is gathered over the lifespans of structures, as well as more detailed data that can be introduced as new features.