Mapping the Distribution of Climate Displacement in Brazil

Abstract

Communities displaced by climate disasters are more vulnerable to adverse health outcomes. There is a critical need for research on association between disasters and displacement in Brazil to improve adaptation and response capabilities. Our study measured the spatial autocorrelation of displacement caused by extreme hydrological events to help healthcare providers and emergency responders identify where resources are needed. We obtained disaster and displacement data from Brazil’s Integrated Disaster Information System. For each event, we calculated the displacement risk by dividing the number of displaced individuals by the total population at the time and multiplying by 100,000. We then averaged the displacement risk for all the events within each municipality. We conducted a Global and Local Moran’s Index analysis of average displacement risk for municipalities in Brazil. Storm, flood, and drought events had average displacement risks of 930, 1197, and 24 per 100,000 people, respectively. The Global Moran Index of the average displacement risk equaled 0.18 (p<0.001) revealing clusters of similar displacement risk across municipalities in Brazil. Local autocorrelation analysis revealed clusters of high displacement risk in North Brazil and clusters of low displacement risk in the Northeast, Center West, and Southeast Regions. States in the South had clusters of both high and low displacement risks. Future research should investigate the drivers of displacement on the state-level especially in the North, South, and Southeast regions of Brazil. The research will help develop targeted adaptation policies to prevent displacement in communities across Brazil.