HOW CLOSE IS CLOSE TO HOME: AN ANALYSIS OF EXPOSURE TO THE UVALDE ACTIVE SHOOTING AND EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS

Abstract

As the number of active shootings steadily increases, individuals may seek protection throughpersonal emergency preparedness. Drawing on behavioral economics and psychology, Prospect Theory suggests that individuals exposed to these devastating attacks are more likely to overestimate the probability of another shooting, potentially leading to preparation. Using data collected by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, this study evaluates individual level changes in emergency preparedness in response to the Robb Elementary School shooting in Uvalde, TX. Additionally, this thesis examined how the relationship between the Uvalde active shooting and emergency preparedness was influenced by physical distance, prior victimization, and social identity. General preparedness, preparedness consideration, and risk perception increased following the Uvalde active shooting. These increases in general and active shooting related preparedness were pronounced among individuals physically closer to Robb elementary school. Moderation analysis reveals that among individuals with prior victimization experience for whom the likelihood of preparedness was greater ex ante, responses to the Uvalde active shooting were muted. Following the Robb Elementary School shooting, Hispanic or Latino respondents reported increases in the likelihood of active shooting related preparedness and risk perception. This finding supports the role of social proximity to shooting victims as a reference point that could influence decision making. However, changes to emergency preparedness after the shooting did not significantly differ between guardians and non-guardians. These findings indicate that people perceive rare but severe risks differently based on characteristics of one’s identity and experience, which can be further impacted by exposure to high-profile incidents.