The intersection of urban-rural divisions and the enumerator effect on Malian opinions of Western military presence

Abstract

As the presence of extremist organizations expand into the Sahel, so does the projection of U.S. military power. The United States’ most recent and poignant example of intelligence failure was the belief that the Iraqi population would treat the invading force of 2003 as liberators. Future events in Mali will have an outsized effect on the region. The receptiveness of Malians toward Western military presence and the ability to ascertain that information are important to intelligence, military, and diplomatic officials. In this study, I explore the effect that an interviewer, residing in either an urban or rural area, has on a subject’s receptiveness to Western military presence. I argue that rural Malians, when interviewed by urban Malians, will be less favorable to Western military presence than if they were interviewed by a fellow rural Malian. The argument also supports the vice versa—urban Malians will be more open to Western military presence when interviewed by rural Malians, versus another urban Malian. I used the sixth installment of Afrobarometer data, specific to Mali, to conduct this study. The results revealed a relationship that was inverse to my hypothesis. The findings were not statistically significant under the traditional standard, but were close enough to warrant further research and have implications.