Russian Winter Cropland Mapping and Impact on Land Use

Abstract

This dissertation provides an in-depth analysis of the transformation in Russia’s winter wheat industry over the past two decades, focusing on production growth, land use changes, and advancements in monitoring techniques. The study reveals a substantial 149% increase in wheat production and a 35% rise in farmland area from 2000 to 2020, driven predominantly by winter wheat, which now represents a significant portion of global exports. Despite this growth, there is notable yearly volatility in production, with USDA Foreign Agriculture Service forecasts exhibiting considerable uncertainty, particularly in area estimations which has substantial impacts on the global wheat export market. To address these challenges, the research utilizes long-term MODIS satellite data to analyze cropland expansion and intensification in southwestern Russia, identifying a 29% increase in winter wheat cropland with distinct patterns of expansion and intensification across different latitudes. The study highlights the ongoing capacity for further cropland intensification. Furthermore, this research introduces Sentinel-1 SAR imagery as an effective solution to the issue of cloud coverage, which hampers optical data accuracy. By employing various machine learning models, including multi-layer perceptron, long short-term memory, and random forest, the study demonstrates that Sentinel-1 SAR enhances the accuracy of in-season cropland mapping. The results show that Sentinel-1 SAR data reduces uncertainty in area estimations by two-thirds compared to MODIS data, offering improved monitoring capabilities. Collectively, this research provides valuable insights into Russia’s agricultural dynamics, addresses key uncertainties in forecasting, and proposes advanced methodologies for more accurate and reliable agricultural assessments