MODELING CAR OWNERSHIP, TYPE AND USAGE FOR THE STATE OF MARYLAND

Abstract

Over the last few decades there has been a great increase in the number of cars in the United States. Given the importance of vehicle ownership on both transport and land-use planning and its relationship with energy consumption, the environment and health, the growth in the number of vehicles and their use has been one of the most intensely researched transport topics over many years.

This thesis presents a car ownership model framework for the State of Maryland. The model has been calibrated on publicly available data (2001 and 2009 National Household Travel Survey) without the burden and the consequent cost of collecting additional data. The sample has been sufficient to correctly estimate a number of relevant socio demographic and land use variables. The model has then been applied, for demonstration purposes, to test a number of sensitivity analysis concerning changes in housing density, income, urbanization, unemployment rates and fuel price.