Exploring the Seasonal Dynamics of Crime in Chicago

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between crime and temperature in Chicago, a metropolitan area known for its high crime rates and diverse crime categories. The spatial unit of our analysis is a census tract level. We use spatial and temporal data from the past 20 years and examine how temperature affects crime trends on a census tract level. In our analysis, we study the hypothesis that certain types of crime, such as theft and assault, tend to occur more frequently during the warmer months, while others occur more frequently during the colder months. We also study if temperature is a significant predictor of crime rates in Chicago, with the neighborhoods with higher temperatures generally leading to higher crime rates.