Turkey's Nonnuclear Decisions on Nuclear Issues
Turkey's Nonnuclear Decisions on Nuclear Issues
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Date
2016-09-15
Authors
Goren, Nilsu
Advisor
Citation
Nilsu Goren, "Turkey's Nonnuclear Decisions on Nuclear Issues," CISSM Report, September 2016.
DRUM DOI
Abstract
Beyond its history of military coups and incomplete civilian oversight of its armed forces,
Turkey has struggled with defining an independent international security policy. Its
perception of U.S./NATO security guarantees has historically shaped its decision to
either prioritize collective defense or seek solutions in indigenous or regional security
arrangements. As part its domestic political transformation during the past decade,
Turkey has decreased its reliance on NATO, leading to questions among observers about
Turkey’s future strategic orientation away from the West.
This brief argues that Turkey’s strategic objectives have indeed evolved in the recent past
and that this is apparent in the mismatch between the country’s general security policy
objectives and the outcomes of its policies on nuclear issues. At present, nuclear weapons
do not serve a compelling function in Turkish policymakers’ thinking, beyond the
country’s commitment to the status quo in NATO nuclear policy. Since nuclear
deterrence is secondary to conventional deterrence, Turkey’s policies on nuclear issues
are predominantly shaped by non-nuclear considerations. These decisions, in the absence
of careful consideration of nuclear weapons, increase nuclear risks. This brief explores
how Turkey could formulate more effective and lower risk nuclear policies than it
currently does by employing cooperative security measures and how such a reorientation
could strengthen to its overall security policy in the process.