Modeling Demand Uncertainties during Ground Delay Programs

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dc.contributor.advisorBall, Michael O.en_US
dc.contributor.authorBhogadi, Narenderen_US
dc.contributor.departmentISRen_US
dc.contributor.departmentNEXTORen_US
dc.date.accessioned2007-05-23T10:13:32Z
dc.date.available2007-05-23T10:13:32Z
dc.date.issued2002en_US
dc.description.abstractUncertainty in air traffic arrival demand creates difficulties for the Air Traffic Control (ATC) specialists in effectively planning Ground Delay Programs(GDPs). An inefficiently planned GDP leads to excessive flight delays and under-utilization of the GDP airport. GDP optimization models that exist today may not generate the best strategies for planning GDPs as they consider demand as deterministic, when in reality, it is highly stochastic.<p>In this thesis, we identify Flight Cancellations, Pop-up Flight Arrivals, and Flight Drift as the common sources of demand uncertainties. Two models -- an optimization model and a simulation model -- that generate effective planningstrategies for a stochastic demand and deterministic capacity scenario, are developed. These models incorporate uncertainty in demand by associating probabilities to the stochastic demand elements during GDPs.<p>The results from both the models suggest that setting Planned Airport Arrival Rates (PAARs) -- the number of flights that are ordered to arrive in a time period at a GDP airport -- that exhibit taircasepattern can effectively mitigate the detrimental effects of demand uncertainties during GDPs. This is a significant finding as it opposes the current policy of setting latPAAR patterns by the ATC specialists.en_US
dc.format.extent376027 bytes
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1903/6346
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesISR; MS 2002-7en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesNEXTOR; MS 2002-2en_US
dc.subjectSocietal Infrastructure Systemsen_US
dc.titleModeling Demand Uncertainties during Ground Delay Programsen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US

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