Modeling Vehicle Ownership Decisions in Maryland: A Preliminary Stated Preference Survey and Model

dc.contributor.advisorCirillo, Cinziaen_US
dc.contributor.authorManess, Michaelen_US
dc.contributor.departmentCivil Engineeringen_US
dc.contributor.publisherDigital Repository at the University of Marylanden_US
dc.contributor.publisherUniversity of Maryland (College Park, Md.)en_US
dc.description.abstractIn the near future, the culmination of new vehicle technologies, greater competition in the energy markets, and government policies to fight pollution and reduce energy consumption will result in changes in the United States' vehicle marketplace. This project proposes to create a stated preference (SP) survey along with discrete choice models to predict future demand for electric, hybrid, alternative fuel, and gasoline vehicles. The survey is divided into three parts: socioeconomics, revealed preference (RP), and SP sections. The socioeconomics portion asks respondents about themselves and their households. The RP portion asks about household's current vehicles. The SP section presents respondents with various hypothetical scenarios over a future five-year period using one of three game designs. The designs correspond to: changing vehicle technology, fuel pricing and availability, and taxation policy. With these changes to the vehicle marketplace, respondents are asked whether they will keep or replace their current vehicles and if he will purchase a new vehicle and its type. To facilitate the design and administering of the survey, a web survey framework, JULIE, was created specifically for creating stated preference surveys. A preliminary trial of the survey was conducted in September and October 2010 with a sample size of 141 respondents. Using the SP results from this preliminary trial, a multinomial logit model is used to estimate future vehicle ownership by vehicle type. The models show that the survey design allows for estimation of important parameters in vehicle choice.en_US
dc.subject.pqcontrolledCivil Engineeringen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledAlternative Fuelen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledElectric Vehiclesen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledStated Preferenceen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledTravel Behavioren_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledVehicle Ownershipen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledVMT Feeen_US
dc.titleModeling Vehicle Ownership Decisions in Maryland: A Preliminary Stated Preference Survey and Modelen_US


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