Skip to content
University of Maryland LibrariesDigital Repository at the University of Maryland
    • Login
    View Item 
    •   DRUM
    • Theses and Dissertations from UMD
    • UMD Theses and Dissertations
    • View Item
    •   DRUM
    • Theses and Dissertations from UMD
    • UMD Theses and Dissertations
    • View Item
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Comparing Regime-Switching Models In Time Series: Logistic Mixtures vs. Markov Switching

    Thumbnail
    View/Open
    umi-umd-4486.pdf (3.455Mb)
    No. of downloads: 14403

    Date
    2007-05-16
    Author
    Paliouras, Dimitrios V.
    Advisor
    Kedem, Benjamin
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Abstract
    The purpose of this thesis is to review several related regime-switching time series models. Specifically, we use simulated data to compare models where the unobserved state vector follows a Markov process against an independent logistic mixture process. We apply these techniques to crude oil and heating oil futures prices using several explanatory variables to estimate the unobserved regimes. We find that crude oil is characterized by regime switching, where prices alternate between a high volatility state with low returns and significant mean reversion and a low volatility state with positive returns and some trending. The spread between one-month and three-month futures prices is an important determinant in the dynamics of crude oil prices.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/1903/6978
    Collections
    • Computer Science Theses and Dissertations
    • Mathematics Theses and Dissertations
    • UMD Theses and Dissertations

    DRUM is brought to you by the University of Maryland Libraries
    University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742-7011 (301)314-1328.
    Please send us your comments.
    Web Accessibility
     

     

    Browse

    All of DRUMCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjectsThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjects

    My Account

    LoginRegister
    Pages
    About DRUMAbout Download Statistics

    DRUM is brought to you by the University of Maryland Libraries
    University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742-7011 (301)314-1328.
    Please send us your comments.
    Web Accessibility