Why Were Scud Casualties So Low?
Why Were Scud Casualties So Low?
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Publication or External Link
Date
1993-01-28
Authors
Fetter, Steve
Lewis, George N.
Gronlund, Lisbeth
Advisor
Citation
Steve Fetter, George N. Lewis, and Lisbeth Gronlund, "Why Were Scud Casualties So Low?" Nature (28 January 1993), pp. 293–296.
DRUM DOI
Abstract
Patriot missiles were returned to the Gulf last week. But they were not the reason
for the unexpectedly low casualty rate when Saddam attacked Israel with Scud missiles in 1991. Iraq fired more than 80 modified Scud missiles at Israel and Saudi Arabia during the 1991
Persian Gulf War. These attacks caused 31 deaths, numerous injuries, and substantial property
damage. With the exception of the Scud that hit a barracks in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, and killed
28 U.S. soldiers, however, the number of deaths and serious injuries caused by each Scud appear
to be much lower than one would have expected based on the results of previous ballistic missile
attacks. The relatively low casualty rate has been cited by several analysts as evidence of the
success of the Patriot missile defense system. Others have argued that the same casualty data
suggests that the Patriot may not have been very successful.