Public Policy Research Works

Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://hdl.handle.net/1903/1619

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    Towards inclusive public administration systems: Public budgeting from the perspective of critical race theory
    (Wiley, 2023-08-26) Martinez Guzman, Juan Pablo; Jordan, Meagan M.; Joyce, Philip G.
    While there is a developing consensus that governments need to address systemic racism, public administration scholarship has not played a large role in supporting policymakers who want to achieve that end. To institutionalize that effort, we analyze the budget process as a setting to identify inequities and incorporate social equity given its overarching reach across all programs and policies. This article uses the tenets of critical race theory to illustrate how to use the budget process to incorporate equity. The resulting racial equity budgeting (REB) framework has three tenets: acknowledging and correcting historic biases, increasing the voice of nondominant groups, and disrupting the status quo by ensuring equity in current policies. The REB framework suggests how public officials may apply these tenets to the stages of public budgeting, including the use of reparation statements, increasing the participation of underrepresented minorities, and reviewing the disaggregated impact of policies, among others.
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    Do tax credits benefit charities? Evidence from two states
    (Wiley, 2023-08-18) Gupta, Anubhav; Spreen, Thomas L.
    This paper considers the effect of state charitable giving tax credits on the contribution revenues of eligible charities. Using event studies paired with Form 990 data, we detect no significant change in contributions to qualified nonprofits after the elimination of a $100 per taxpayer credit by Michigan. By contrast, we find a significant increase in contributions to qualified charities following the introduction of a $10,000 per taxpayer credit by North Dakota that persists for several years. The results suggest that placing a large cap on charitable giving tax credits induces stronger donor responses.
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    An Econometric Analysis of Sea Surface Temperatures, Sea Ice Concentrations and Ocean Surface Current Velocities
    (MDPI, 2022-12-01) Bhargava, Alok; Echenique, Juan A.
    This paper analyzed quarterly longitudinal data for 64,800 1 × 1 degree grids during 2000–2019 on sea surface temperatures, sea ice concentrations, and ocean surface current zonal and meridional velocities in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The methodological framework addressed the processing of remote sensing signals, interdependence between sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, and combining zonal and meridional velocities as the eddy kinetic energy. Dynamic and static random effects models were estimated by maximum likelihood and stepwise methods, respectively, taking into account the unobserved heterogeneity across grids. The main findings were that quarterly sea surface temperatures increased steadily in the Northern hemisphere, whereas cyclical patterns were apparent in Southern hemisphere; sea ice concentrations declined in both hemispheres. Second, sea surface temperatures were estimated with large negative coefficients in the models for sea ice concentrations for the hemispheres; previous sea ice concentrations were negatively associated with sea surface temperatures, indicating feedback loops. Third, sea surface temperatures were positively and significantly associated with eddy kinetic energy in Northern hemisphere. Overall, the results indicated the importance of reducing sea surface temperatures via reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and the dumping of pollutants into oceans for maintaining sea ice concentrations and enhancing global sustainability.
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    Do Conditional Cash Transfers Reduce Fertility? Nationwide Evidence from Mexico
    (Wiley, 2023-07-05) Parker, Susan W.; Ryu, Soomin
    Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs, which link transfers to investment in human capital in poor families, have spread around the world over the past two decades. This paper studies the medium-term effects of Progresa, the pioneering Mexican CCT program, on fertility using nationwide vital statistics combined with administrative data on program receipt. The effects of CCTs are likely to vary by age of the woman, and we study impacts by five-year age intervals. We test and account for possible underreporting of births using indirect methods. We find that Progresa led to an important and statistically significant decline in teenage fertility and smaller, but still significant, effects on reducing the fertility of older women.
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    The policy response to global value chain disruption
    (Wiley, 2023-05-05) Dadush, Uri
    This article considers how policymakers should react to the disruption of Global Value Chains, which became dramatically evident during the pandemic. It argues that repeated shocks to GVCs, as seen in recent years, are not purely random and disjointed events. They are the result of fundamental shifts in the geopolitical environment, global economy, and climate. Firms have concluded that international supply chains have become endemically riskier, and this is changing their risk/efficiency calculus. But there is no reason and – so far – little evidence to suggest that GVCs will stage a large-scale retreat. Powerful economic forces are at work that will prompt increased reliance on GVCs and improve their operability in the future. Governments tend to overreact when faced with supply shocks, and unnecessarily impede GVCs; more nuanced and coordinated responses are needed. The WTO can play an important role, promoting the resilience of GVCs.
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    Can gender-responsive budgeting change how governments budget?: Lessons from the case of Ecuador.
    (Wiley, 2023-04-01) Martínez Guzmán, Juan Pablo
    Gender-responsive budgeting (GRB) has been introduced in over 80 countries to mitigate gender inequities. We evaluate if these reforms can influence policy making and enhance gender-oriented accountability. Our analysis follows the process-tracing methodology and includes over 20 in-depth interviews. Our findings show significant public administration obstacles to GRB, but success is possible in institutions with proper leadership, human, and technological resources. This study advances our understanding of the operational limits of GRB, highlights areas for future research on equity-oriented reforms, and sheds light on issues that practitioners need to account for as they strive to further gender equity.
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    Decree or democracy? State takeovers and local government financial outcomes
    (Wiley, 2023-02-05) Singla, Akheil; Spreen, Thomas Luke; Shumberger, Jason
    Many states possess the authority to intervene in local fiscal emergencies, in some cases curtailing decision-making powers of local officials through the appointment of an emergency financial manager. Previous research has recognized that these managers can push through unpopular reforms that may improve financial health but come at the expense of local control and democratic accountability. We assess the financial outcomes after eight recent state takeovers relative to a matched counterfactual comprised of similarly distressed general purpose local governments. The staggered difference-in-differences analysis shows emergency managers improve budgetary solvency and increase fiscal reserves. These enhancements are achieved through significant reduction of general fund expenditures. Several long-term indicators show deterioration in financial health after state intervention reflecting a significant decline in long-term assets. Overall, municipalities subjected to a state takeover did not realize significant long-run improvements in financial health indicators relative to counterfactual governments.
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    Information sharing and state revenue forecasting performance
    (Wiley, 2022-09-18) Spreen, Thomas L.; Martinez Guzman, Juan P.
    This study evaluates whether intergovernmental information sharing enhances forecasting performance. This is accomplished by examining the accuracy of state revenue forecasts following the federal passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. The quantitative analysis suggests that states that shared information produced more accurate corporate income tax forecasts than nonsharing states. This result is consistent with surveys and interviews of federal and state officials that reported significant information-sharing activity arising from uncertainty about the TCJA's corporate income tax provisions. This study demonstrates that information sharing plays an important yet overlooked role in mitigating forecast uncertainty.
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    Delivering public services to the underserved: Nonprofits and the Latino threat narrative
    (Wiley, 2022-03-24) Tremblay-Boire, Joannie; Prakash, Aseem; Apolonia Calderon, Maria
    Some politicians employ harsh rhetoric demanding that government deny public services such as food, housing, and medical care to immigrants. While nonprofits assist immigrants in this regard, their work is sustainable only if private donors support them. Using a survey experiment, this article examines whether donors' willingness to support a charity depends on the legal status of its beneficiaries, and the region from which they have come. We find that, in relation to a charity that serves low-income families (control group), donors are less willing to support a charity serving immigrants, but the region from which beneficiaries emigrated is irrelevant. Donor willingness diminishes substantially when beneficiaries are undocumented or face deportation. While shared ethnicity between donors and beneficiaries does not increase charitable support, bilingualism does. In addition, support for the charity rises substantially among Latinx donors who were born outside the US and do not speak English at home.
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    Preferential Trade Agreements, Geopolitics, and the Fragmentation of World Trade
    (Cambridge University Press, 2023-04-14) Dadush, Uri; Dominguez Prost, Enzo
    Failure to reestablish an effective World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute settlement procedure, stop the erosion of multilateral rules and end the China–US trade war causes capitals to rethink trade policy. One response is to redouble efforts to strike trade agreements with major trading partners. Already countries accounting for about 78% of world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are members of mega-regional agreements, and based on our computations, preferential trade agreements (PTAs) will soon cover about two-thirds of world trade. Can PTAs replace a fading WTO or mitigate its effects? Amid deepening geopolitical rifts, how will trade relations among China, the EU, and the US, each a hegemon in their respective regions, evolve, and what will be the impact on smaller economies? In short, how will a trading system based increasingly on PTAs and weak multilateral rules look, and how will nations adapt? Absent reforms, the trading system is likely to fragment progressively into regional blocks organized around the hegemons. Trade within the regional blocks, mainly conducted under a mega-regional agreement, will likely remain quite open and predictable, but without strict multilateral rules and where PTAs are absent (as they are among the hegemons), interregional trade relations will become increasingly uncertain and unstable.