The Economics of Reprocessing vs. Direct Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel

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Date
2003-12Author
Fetter, Steve
Bunn, Matthew
Holdren, John P.
van der Zwaan, Bob
Citation
Matthew Bunn, Steve Fetter, John P. Holdren and Bob van der Zwaan, The Economics of Reprocessing vs. Direct Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel (Cambridge, MA: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University, December 2003), 127 pgs
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Show full item recordAbstract
This report assesses the economics of reprocessing versus direct disposal of spent
nuclear fuel. The breakeven uranium price at which reprocessing spent nuclear fuel from
existing light-water reactors (LWRs) and recycling the resulting plutonium and uranium
in LWRs would become economic is assessed, using central estimates of the costs of
different elements of the nuclear fuel cycle (and other fuel cycle input parameters), for a
wide range of range of potential reprocessing prices. Sensitivity analysis is performed,
showing that the conclusions reached are robust across a wide range of input parameters.
The contribution of direct disposal or reprocessing and recycling to electricity cost is also
assessed. The choice of particular central estimates and ranges for the input parameters
of the fuel cycle model is justified through a review of the relevant literature. The impact
of different fuel cycle approaches on the volume needed for geologic repositories is
briefly discussed, as are the issues surrounding the possibility of performing separations
and transmutation on spent nuclear fuel to reduce the need for additional repositories. A
similar analysis is then performed of the breakeven uranium price at which deploying
fast-neutron breeder reactors would become competitive compared with a once-through
fuel cycle in LWRs, for a range of possible differences in capital cost between LWRs and
fast-neutron reactors. Sensitivity analysis is again provided, as are an analysis of the
contribution to electricity cost, and a justification of the choices of central estimates and
ranges for the input parameters. The equations used in the economic model are derived
and explained in an appendix. Another appendix assesses the quantities of uranium likely
to be recoverable worldwide in the future at a range of different possible future prices.
Notes
Excel spreadsheets used to calculate the breakeven uranium price and the cost of electricity also available. (See appendix A for details)