ADVANCED DATA ANALYTICS AND MESOSCOPIC DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT SIMULATION FOR TRAFFIC IMPACT ANALYSIS OF MARYLAND CASINOS
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Three full-service casinos recently opened in Maryland: Live! Casino at the Arundel Mills Mall (June 2012), Horseshoe in Downtown Baltimore (August 2014), and MGM at the National Harbor (December 2016). The increased travel demand associated with such large entertainment complexes prompted an effort to quantify each facility’s impact on regional and local traffic patterns; therefore, a three-pronged analysis was conducted. First, historic vehicle probe data were analyzed to quantify and visualize the observed, local traffic impact for selected months before and after each casino became operational. Subsequently, an open-source mesoscopic DTA simulator named DTALite modeled the regional impact of the before/after scenarios as well as a special event scenario (e.g. Baltimore Ravens’ football game). The paper’s final component explored two innovative trip generation estimation methods to supplement the ITE Manual’s data limitation for casinos by utilizing aggregated mobile device trip data and an origin-demand adjustment system imbedded within DTALite. Ultimately, the data analytics and simulation-based modeling revealed no major traffic impact was generated by any casino. Moreover, upon comparison with ground truth count data, the origin-demand estimation technique out-performed both the ITE-based and location-based trip estimation methods.