HYBRID RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK FOR SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS INCORPORATING STAKEHOLDER PREFERENCES
Emanuel, Roy Nelson
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From Presidential Policy Directive 21, to professional societies’ national meetings, to major United Nations initiatives, stakeholders recognize the value of achieving resilient systems. The literature clamors with methods to assess resilience of systems quantitatively and qualitatively. Resilience models typically focus on system performance and the threat to the system. Few models consider the preferences of the stakeholders of the systems. This course of study identified three gaps in the literature: first, the focus on system performance without considering the preferences of stakeholders; second, lack of resilience model-to-model comparison; and third, lack of a common framework for applying resilience models across domains and systems of systems. This course of study investigated the impact of incorporating stakeholder preferences into four existing resilience models: Resilience Factor, Quotient Resilience, Total Quotient Resilience, and Integral Resilience. The incorporated stakeholder preferences were time horizon, endogenous performance preference, and intertemporal substitutability of system performance. An analysis of the resultant eight illustrative models showed the models' comparative sensitivity to changes in system performance and stakeholder preferences using four fundamental system performance and stakeholder preference models. A deterministic system dynamics model of a city's critical infrastructure provided inputs to the eight models for an initial case study. The first phase identifies three stakeholder preference profiles for the water delivery infrastructure. The second phase assesses the impact of electrical outages on seven other critical infrastructures. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the initial case study led to selection of the Extended Integral Resilience model for additional demonstrations. Stochastic inputs for the system dynamics model showed a range of resilience outcomes for each stakeholders' infrastructure for five courses of action. The hybrid resilience model used Department of Energy reports on Puerto Rico's recovery from Hurricane Maria to generate a resilience value. A discrete event simulation of a fleet of aircraft used to train aviators provided the basis for the second set of case studies. The study considered the points of view of the Squadron Commanders which were limited to three year increments, and the program manager which considered a thirty-five year time horizon. The functional outputs of the model were graduates per quarter, aircraft ready to fly each day, and satisfied graduates per quarter. The case study introduced and demonstrated an event and time dependent intertemporal substitutability algorithm to be defined by the stakeholder.