THE UNDISCOVERED COUNTRY: HOMICIDE, DYNAMIC CHANGE, AND DETERRENCE IN WASHINGTON, D.C. NEIGHBORHOODS, 1998-2006

Abstract

Studies examining homicide rates often have two limitations. First, there is a lack of rich, dynamic data to account for change, and second, no consideration of formal social controls at the neighborhood-level. To address these limitations, longitudinal data from Washington, D.C. was collected at the neighborhood level. This homicide incident and neighborhood demographic data, which spans from 1998-2006, allow for a test of two theoretical perspectives within a classical/social control sphere, namely social disorganization and deterrence. This work poses two main questions: Do dynamic structural factors influence homicide rates across neighborhoods? Does aggregate deterrence influence homicide rates across neighborhoods? Results suggest that dynamic structural factors predict homicide rates better than static factors, though deterrence results are insignificant. Implications and avenues for future research are also discussed.