Geography

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Author: search.filters.author.Barker, Brian

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    Wheat Yield Forecasting for Punjab Province from Vegetation Index Time Series and Historic Crop Statistics
    (MDPI, 2014-10-13) Dempewolf, Jan; Adusei, Bernard; Becker-Reshef, Inbal; Hansen, Matthew; Potapov, Peter; Khan, Ahmad; Barker, Brian
    Policy makers, government planners and agricultural market participants in Pakistan require accurate and timely information about wheat yield and production. Punjab Province is by far the most important wheat producing region in the country. The manual collection of field data and data processing for crop forecasting by the provincial government requires significant amounts of time before official reports can be released. Several studies have shown that wheat yield can be effectively forecast using satellite remote sensing data. In this study, we developed a methodology for estimating wheat yield and area for Punjab Province from freely available Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery approximately six weeks before harvest. Wheat yield was derived by regressing reported yield values against time series of four different peak-season MODIS-derived vegetation indices. We also tested deriving wheat area from the same MODIS time series using a regression-tree approach. Among the four evaluated indices, WDRVI provided more consistent and accurate yield forecasts compared to NDVI, EVI2 and saturation-adjusted normalized difference vegetation index (SANDVI). The lowest RMSE values at the district level for forecast versus reported yield were found when using six or more years of training data. Forecast yield for the 2007/2008 to 2012/2013 growing seasons were within 0.2% and 11.5% of final reported values. Absolute deviations of wheat area and production forecasts from reported values were slightly greater compared to using the previous year’s or the three- or six-year moving average values, implying that 250-m MODIS data does not provide sufficient spatial resolution for providing improved wheat area and production forecasts.
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    Prior Season Crop Type Masks for Winter Wheat Yield Forecasting: A US Case Study
    (MDPI, 2018-10-19) Becker-Reshef, Inbal; Franch, Belen; Barker, Brian; Murphy, Emilie; Santamaria-Artigas, Andres; Humber, Michael; Skakun, Sergii; Vermote, Eric
    Monitoring and forecasting crop yields is a critical component of understanding and better addressing global food security challenges. Detailed spatial information on crop-type distribution is fundamental for in-season crop condition monitoring and yields forecasting over large agricultural areas, as it enables the extraction of crop-specific signals. Yet, the availability of such data within the growing season is often limited. Within this context, this study seeks to develop a practical approach to extract a crop-specific signal for yield forecasting in cases where crop rotations are prevalent, and detailed in-season information on crop type distribution is not available. We investigated the possibility of accurately forecasting winter wheat yields by using a counter-intuitive approach, which coarsens the spatial resolution of out-of-date detailed winter wheat masks and uses them in combination with easily accessibly coarse spatial resolution remotely sensed time series data. The main idea is to explore an optimal spatial resolution at which crop type changes will be negligible due to crop rotation (so a previous seasons’ mask, which is more readily available can be used) and an informative signal can be extracted, so it can be correlated to crop yields. The study was carried out in the United States of America (USA) and utilized multiple years of NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, US Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) detailed wheat masks, and a regression-based winter wheat yield model. The results indicate that, in places where crop rotations were prevalent, coarsening the spatial scale of a crop type mask from the previous season resulted in a constant per-pixel wheat proportion over multiple seasons. This enables the consistent extraction of a crop-specific vegetation index time series that can be used for in-season monitoring and yield estimation over multiple years using a single mask. In the case of the USA, using a moderate resolution crop type mask from a previous season aggregated to 5 km resolution, resulted in a 0.7% tradeoff in accuracy relative to the control case where annually-updated detailed crop-type masks were available. These findings suggest that when detailed in-season data is not available, winter wheat yield can be accurately forecasted (within 10%) prior to harvest using a single, prior season crop mask and coarse resolution Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series data.