A. James Clark School of Engineering
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The collections in this community comprise faculty research works, as well as graduate theses and dissertations.
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Item THE INFLUENCE OF URBAN FORM AT DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHICAL SCALES ON TRAVEL BEHAVIOR; EVIDENCE FROM U.S. CITIES(2016) Nasri, Arefeh; Zhang, Lei; Civil Engineering; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Suburban lifestyle is popular among American families, although it has been criticized for encouraging automobile use through longer commutes, causing heavy traffic congestion, and destroying open spaces (Handy, 2005). It is a serious concern that people living in low-density suburban areas suffer from high automobile dependency and lower rates of daily physical activity, both of which result in social, environmental and health-related costs. In response to such concerns, researchers have investigated the inter-relationships between urban land-use pattern and travel behavior within the last few decades and suggested that land-use planning can play a significant role in changing travel behavior in the long-term. However, debates regarding the magnitude and efficiency of the effects of land-use on travel patterns have been contentious over the years. Changes in built-environment patterns is potentially considered a long-term panacea for automobile dependency and traffic congestion, despite some researchers arguing that the effects of land-use on travel behavior are minor, if any. It is still not clear why the estimated impact is different in urban areas and how effective a proposed land-use change/policy is in changing certain travel behavior. This knowledge gap has made it difficult for decision-makers to evaluate land-use plans and policies. In addition, little is known about the influence of the large-scale built environment. In the present dissertation, advanced spatial-statistical tools have been employed to better understand and analyze these impacts at different scales, along with analyzing transit-oriented development policy at both small and large scales. The objective of this research is to: (1) develop scalable and consistent measures of the overall physical form of metropolitan areas; (2) re-examine the effects of built-environment factors at different hierarchical scales on travel behavior, and, in particular, on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and car ownership; and (3) investigate the effects of transit-oriented development on travel behavior. The findings show that changes in built-environment at both local and regional levels could be very influential in changing travel behavior. Specifically, the promotion of compact, mixed-use built environment with well-connected street networks reduces VMT and car ownership, resulting in less traffic congestion, air pollution, and energy consumption.Item SHORT TERM TRAVEL BEHAVIOR PREDICTION THROUGH GPS AND LAND USE DATA(2015) Krause, Cory; Zhang, Lei; Civil Engineering; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)The short-term destination prediction problem consists of capturing vehicle Global Positioning System (GPS) traces and learning from historic locations and trajectories to predict a vehicle’s destination. Drivers have predictable trip destinations that can be estimated through probabilistic modeling of past trips. This dissertation has three main hypotheses; 1) Employing a tiered Markov model structure will permit a shorter learning period while achieving similar accuracy results, 2) The addition of derived trip purpose information will increase accuracy of the start of trip and in-route models as a whole, and 3) Similar methodologies of travel pattern inference can be used to accurately predict trip purpose and socio-economic factors. To study these concepts, a database of GPS driving traces (120 participants for 70 days) is collected. To model the user’s trip purpose, a new data source was explored: Point of Interest (POI)/land use data. An open source land use/POI dataset is merged with the GPS dataset. The resulting database includes over 20,000 trips with travel characteristics and land use/POI data. From land use/POI data, and travel patterns, trip purpose is calculated with machine learning methods. A new model structure is developed that uses trip purpose when it is available, yet falls back on traditional spatial temporal Markov models when it is not. The start of trip model has an overall increase of accuracy over other start of trip models of 2%. This comes quickly, needing only 30 days to reach this level of accuracy compared to nearly a year in many other models. When adding trip purpose and the start of trip model to in-route prediction methods, the accuracy of the destination prediction increases significantly: 15-30% improvement of accuracy over similar models between 0-50% of trip progression. Certain trips are predicted more accurately than others: work and home based trips average of 90% correct prediction, whereas shopping and social based trips hover around the 50% mark. In all, the greatest contribution of this dissertation is the trip purpose methodology addition and the tiered Markov model structure in gaining fast results in both the start of trip and in-route models.