College of Behavioral & Social Sciences

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Author: search.filters.author.Khan, Ahmad

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    Wheat Yield Forecasting for Punjab Province from Vegetation Index Time Series and Historic Crop Statistics
    (MDPI, 2014-10-13) Dempewolf, Jan; Adusei, Bernard; Becker-Reshef, Inbal; Hansen, Matthew; Potapov, Peter; Khan, Ahmad; Barker, Brian
    Policy makers, government planners and agricultural market participants in Pakistan require accurate and timely information about wheat yield and production. Punjab Province is by far the most important wheat producing region in the country. The manual collection of field data and data processing for crop forecasting by the provincial government requires significant amounts of time before official reports can be released. Several studies have shown that wheat yield can be effectively forecast using satellite remote sensing data. In this study, we developed a methodology for estimating wheat yield and area for Punjab Province from freely available Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery approximately six weeks before harvest. Wheat yield was derived by regressing reported yield values against time series of four different peak-season MODIS-derived vegetation indices. We also tested deriving wheat area from the same MODIS time series using a regression-tree approach. Among the four evaluated indices, WDRVI provided more consistent and accurate yield forecasts compared to NDVI, EVI2 and saturation-adjusted normalized difference vegetation index (SANDVI). The lowest RMSE values at the district level for forecast versus reported yield were found when using six or more years of training data. Forecast yield for the 2007/2008 to 2012/2013 growing seasons were within 0.2% and 11.5% of final reported values. Absolute deviations of wheat area and production forecasts from reported values were slightly greater compared to using the previous year’s or the three- or six-year moving average values, implying that 250-m MODIS data does not provide sufficient spatial resolution for providing improved wheat area and production forecasts.
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    Evaluating Landsat and RapidEye Data for Winter Wheat Mapping and Area Estimation in Punjab, Pakistan
    (MDPI, 2018-03-21) Khan, Ahmad; Hansen, Matthew C.; Potapov, Peter V.; Adusei, Bernard; Pickens, Amy; Krylov, Alexander; Stehman, Stephen V.
    While publicly available, cost-free coarse and medium spatial resolution satellite data such as MODIS and Landsat perform well in characterizing industrial cropping systems, commercial high spatial resolution satellite data are often preferred alternative for fine scale land tenure agricultural systems such as found in Pakistan. In this article, we integrated commercial 5 m spatial resolution RapidEye and free 30 m Landsat imagery in characterizing winter wheat in Punjab province, Pakistan. Specifically, we used 5 m spatial resolution RapidEye imagery from peak of the winter wheat growing season to derive training data for the characterization of time-series Landsat data. After co-registration, each RapidEye image was classified into wheat/no wheat labels at the 5 m resolution and then aggregated as percent cover to 30 m Landsat grid cells. We produced four maps, two using RapidEye derived continuous training data (of percent wheat cover) as input to a regression tree model, and two using RapidEye derived categorical training data as input to a classification tree model. From the RapidEye-derived 30 m continuous training data, we derived Map 1 as percent wheat per pixel, and Map 2 as binary wheat/no wheat classification derived using a 50% threshold applied to Map 1. To create the categorical wheat/no wheat training data, we first converted the continuous training data to a wheat/no wheat classification, and then used these categorical RapidEye training data to produce a categorical wheat map from the Landsat data. Two methods for categorizing the training data were used. The first method used a 50% wheat/no wheat threshold to produce Map 3, and the second method used only pure wheat (≥75% cover) and no wheat (≤25% cover) training pixels to produce Map 4. The approach of Map 4 is analogous to a standard method in which whole, pure, high-confidence training pixels are delineated. We validated the wheat maps with field data collected using a stratified, two-stage cluster design. Accuracy of the maps produced from the percent cover training data (Map 1 and Map 2) was not substantially better than the accuracy of the maps produced from the categorical training data as all methods yielded similar overall accuracies (±standard error): 88% (±4%) for Map 1, 90% (±4%) for Map 2, 90% (±4%) for Map 3, and 87% (±4%) for Map 4. Because the percent cover training data did not produce significantly higher accuracies, sub-pixel training data are not required for winter wheat mapping in Punjab. Given sufficient expertise in supervised classification model calibration, freely available Landsat data are sufficient for crop mapping in the fine-scale land tenure system of Punjab. For winter wheat mapping in Punjab and other like landscapes, training data for supervised classification may be collected directly from Landsat images without the need for high resolution reference imagery.
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    Using Multi-Resolution Satellite Data to Quantify Land Dynamics: Applications of PlanetScope Imagery for Cropland and Tree-Cover Loss Area Estimation
    (MDPI, 2021-06-04) Pickering, Jeffrey; Tyukavina, Alexandra; Khan, Ahmad; Potapov, Peter; Adusei, Bernard; Hansen, Matthew C.; Lima, André
    The Planet constellation of satellites represents a significant advance in the availability of high cadence, high spatial resolution imagery. When coupled with a targeted sampling strategy, these advances enhance land-cover and land-use monitoring capabilities. Here we present example regional and national-scale area-estimation methods as a demonstration of the integrated and efficient use of mapping and sampling using public medium-resolution (Landsat) and commercial high resolution (PlanetScope) imagery. Our proposed method is agnostic to the geographic region and type of land cover and change, which is demonstrated by applying the method across two very different geographies and thematic classes. Wheat extent is estimated in Punjab, Pakistan, for the 2018/2019 growing season, and tree-cover loss area is estimated over Peru for 2017 and 2018. We used a time series of PlanetScope imagery to classify a sample of 5 × 5 km blocks for each region and produce area estimates of 55,947 km2 (±9.0%) of wheat in Punjab and 5398 km2 (±9.1%) of tree-cover loss in Peru. We also demonstrate the use of regression estimation utilizing population information from Landsat-based maps to reduce standard errors of the sample-based estimates. Resulting regression estimates have SEs of 3.6% and 5.1% for Pakistan and Peru, respectively. The combination of daily global coverage and high spatial resolution of Planet imagery improves our ability to monitor crop phenology and capture ephemeral tree-cover loss and degradation dynamics, while Landsat-based maps provide wall-to-wall information to target the sample and increase precision of the estimates through the use of regression estimation.
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    Landsat-based operational wheat area estimation model for Punjab, Pakistan
    (2018) Khan, Ahmad; Hansen, Matthew C.; Geography; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
    Wheat in Punjab province of Pakistan is grown during the Rabi (winter) season within a heterogeneous smallholder agricultural system subject to a range of pressures including water scarcity, climate change and variability, and management practices. Punjab is the breadbasket of Pakistan, representing over 70% of national wheat production. Timely estimation of cultivated wheat area can serve to inform decision-making in managing harvests with regard to markets and food security. The current wheat area and yield reporting system, operated by the Punjab Crop Reporting Service (CRS) delivers crop forecasts several months after harvest. The delayed production data cannot contribute to in-season decision support systems. There is a need for an alternative cost-effective, efficient and timely approach on producing wheat area estimates, in ensuring food security for the millions of people in Pakistan. Landsat data, medium spatial and temporal resolutions, offer a data source for characterizing wheat in smallholder agriculture landscapes. This dissertation presents methods for operational mapping of wheat cultivate area using within growing season Landsat time-series data. In addition to maps of wheat cover in Punjab, probability-based samples of in-situ reference data were allocated using the map as a stratifier. A two-stage probability based cluster field sample was used to estimate area and assess map accuracies. The before-harvest wheat area estimates from field-based sampling and Landsat map were found to be comparable to official post-harvest data produced by the CRS Punjab. This research concluded that Landsat medium resolution data has sufficient spatial and temporal coverage for successful wall-to-wall mapping of wheat in Punjab’s smallholder agricultural system. Freely available coarse and medium spatial resolution satellite data such as MODIS and Landsat perform well in characterizing industrial cropping systems; commercial high spatial resolution satellite data are often advocated as an alternative for characterizing fine-scale land tenure agricultural systems such as that found in Punjab. Commercial 5 m spatial resolution RapidEye data from the peak of the winter wheat growing season were used as sub-pixel training data in mapping wheat with the growing season free 30 m Landsat time series data from the 2014-15 growing season. The use of RapidEye to calibrate mapping algorithms did not produce significantly higher overall accuracies ( ± standard error) compared to traditional whole pixel training of Landsat-based 30 m data. Continuous wheat mapping yielded an overall accuracy of 88% (SE = ±4%) in comparison to 87% (SE = ±4%) for categorical wheat mapping, leading to the finding that sub-pixel training data are not required for winter wheat mapping in Punjab. Given sufficient expertise in supervised classification model calibration, freely available Landsat data are sufficient for crop mapping in the fine-scale land tenure system of Punjab. For winter wheat mapping in Punjab and other similar landscapes, training data for supervised classification may be collected directly from Landsat images with probability based stratified random sampling as reference data without the need for high-resolution reference imagery. The research concluded by exploring the use of automated models in wheat area mapping and area estimation using growing season Landsat time-series data. The automated classification tree model resulted in wheat / not wheat maps with comparable accuracies compared to results achieved with traditional manual training. In estimating area, automated wheat maps from previous growing seasons can serve as a stratifier in the allocation of current season in-situ reference data, and current growing season maps can serve as an auxiliary variable in model-assisted area estimation procedures. The research demonstrated operational implementation of robust automated mapping in generating timely, accurate, and precise wheat area estimates. Such information is a critical input to policy decisions, and can help to ensure appropriate post-harvest grain management to address situations arising from surpluses or shortages in crop production.