Criminology & Criminal Justice
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Item TURNING POINTS IN LATE ADOLESCENCE: A STUDY OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION AND ADULT OFFENDING IN A LIFE COURSE FRAMEWORK(2010) Liu, Weiwei; Petras, Hanno; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Guided by the general theoretical paradigm of life course criminology, this study investigates the relationship between high school graduation and adult offending. This dissertation builds upon the idea of turning points in reducing offending behavior and extends this idea from adulthood to late adolescence/early adulthood, and considers high school graduation as a turning point in reducing adult offending behavior. This dissertation identifies the research gap on the high school graduation/dropout-delinquency relationship, that is, most previous studies could not reject the alternative hypothesis, i.e. not graduating from high school and adult offending can both be explained by prior processes. This dissertation investigates the causal relationship between high school graduation, as a turning point that opens up future opportunities, and early adult offending. After establishing a causal relationship between graduation and adult offending, this study further explores the mechanisms of the graduation effect. In particular, this study investigates whether and to what extent turning points in adulthood, i.e. employment and intimate relationships, mediate such a causal relationship. The sample used in this dissertation consists of 460 males from the data collected by Johns Hopkins Prevention Intervention Research Center (JHU PIRC). The analytical methods used in this study include propensity score matching, sensitivity analysis (to address selection bias due to possible omitted covariates), and mediation analysis. In terms of the causal relationship between graduation and offending, it was found that high school graduates are 93% less likely to have an adult offending record than dropouts similar on early processes. Such a finding is robust to selection bias due to possible omitted covariates. It was concluded that for those who are at great risk for dropping out, staying in school and finishing their education provides a turning point in reducing adult offending. In terms of the mechanisms of the graduation effect, it was found that post graduation experiences, employment in particular, help explain the graduate-dropout differences in offending during early adulthood. For dropouts, employment may be another turning point. Implications for life course criminology and policy are discussed.Item Are Immigrants Crime Prone? A Multifaceted Investigation of the Relationship between Immigration and Crime in Two Eras(2010) Bersani, Bianca; Laub, John H.; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Are immigrants crime prone? In America, this question has been posed since the turn of the 20th century and more than 100 years of research has shown that immigration is not linked to increasing crime rates. Nevertheless, as was true more than a century ago, the myth of the criminal immigrant continues to permeate public debate. In part this continued focus on immigrants as crime prone is the result of significant methodological and theoretical gaps in the extant literature. Five key limitations are identified and addressed in this research including: (1) a general reliance on aggregate level analyses, (2) the treatment of immigrants as a homogeneous entity, (3) a general dependence on official data, (4) the utilization of cross-sectional analyses, and (5) nominal theoretical attention. Two broad questions motivate this research. First, how do the patterns of offending over the life course differ across immigrant and native-born groups? Second, what factors explain variation in offending over time for immigrants and does the influence of these predictors vary across immigrant and native-born individuals? These questions are examined using two separate datasets capturing information on immigration and crime during two distinct waves of immigration in the United States. Specifically, I use the Unraveling Juvenile Delinquency data and subsequent follow-ups to capture early 20th century immigration and crime, while contemporary data come from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997. Three particularly salient conclusions are drawn from this research. First, patterns of offending (i.e., prevalence, frequency, persistence and desistance) are remarkably similar for native-born and immigrant individuals. Second, although differences are observed when examining predictors of offending for native-born and immigrant individuals, they tend to be differences in degree rather than kind. That is, immigrants and native-born individuals are influenced similarly by family, peer, and school factors. Finally, these findings are robust and held when taking into account socio-historical context, immigrant generation, immigration nationality group, and crime type. In sum, based on the evidence from this research, the simple answer to the question of whether immigrants are crime prone is no.Item Causal Inference with Group-Based Trajectories and Propensity Score Matching: Is High School Dropout a Turning Point?(2006-04-28) Sweeten, Gary Allen; Bushway, Shawn D; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Life course criminology focuses on trajectories of deviant or criminal behavior punctuated by turning point events that redirect trajectories onto a different path. There is no consensus in the field on how to measure turning points. In this study I ask: Is high school dropout a turning point in offending trajectories? I utilize two kinds of matching methods to answer this question: matching based on semi-parametric group-based trajectory models, and propensity score matching. These methods are ideally suited to measure turning points because they explicitly model counterfactual outcomes which can be used to estimate the effect of turning point events over time. It has been suggested that dropout is the end result of a process of disengagement from school. In order to assess the effect of the event of dropout, it is necessary to separate dropout from the processes that lead to it. The extent to which this is accomplished by matching is assessed by comparing dropouts to matched non-dropouts on numerous background characteristics. As such, it is desirable to use a wide range of measures to compare the two groups. I use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to address this question. Delinquency is measured in two ways: a six-item variety scale and a scale based on a graded-response model. Dropout is based on self-reports of educational attainment supplemented with official transcripts provided by high schools. Because of the breadth of topics covered in this survey, it is very well-suited to matching methods. The richness of these data allows comparisons on over 300 characteristics to assess whether the assumptions of matching methods are plausible. I find that matching based on trajectory models is unable to achieve balance in pre-dropout characteristics between dropouts and non-dropouts. Propensity score matching successfully achieves balance, but dropout effects are indistinguishable from zero. I conclude that first-time dropout between the ages of 16 and 18 is not a turning point in offending trajectories. Implications for life course criminology and dropout research are discussed.