Criminology & Criminal Justice

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Alienation and Power: Prison Workers in Prison
(2013) McGuinn, Stephen Crandall; Wellford, Charles F; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
The US incarcerates close to one percent of the adult population. The Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) detains over 200,000 men and women. In order to manage this substantial prisoner population, the Bureau of Prisons employs close to 40,000 individuals. Using multilevel modeling and drawing on data from the yearly Prison Social Climate Survey administered by the BOP, this study poses three questions: (1) How do prison workers perceive institutional power derivation? (2) Do power adoptions impact prison worker perception of effectiveness in inmate management? (3) Does alienation harden prison workers and reduce their ability to effectively manage inmate populations? Results indicate that prisons largely promote formal and constructive power adoptions and these power adoptions improve prisoner management. In addition, alienation harms effective prisoner management and hardens prison workers. Discussion includes implications for theory, policy, and practice.
Alternatives to punishment: Counterterrorism strategies in Algeria
(2009) Lesniewicz, Amber Lee Stoesser; LaFree, Gary D; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Rational choice theory has been one of the key theories used to explain the effectiveness of counterterrorism policies (Dugan, LaFree & Piquero, 2005; Enders & Sandler, 1993; 2003; Frey, 2004; LaFree, Dugan & Korte, 2009). These investigations have examined policies focused on increasing the costs of committing political violence, such as criminalization, increased police presence, and government strikes. However, few investigations have looked at policies that increase the benefits of not committing political violence such as negotiations and amnesties. In this study, I investigate the effectiveness of counterterrorism policies that seek to increase the benefits of not committing terrorism. I use Algeria as a case study and examine three counterterrorism policies between 1994 and 2004. One of the policies is a traditionally deterrent policy that increases the consequences of committing terrorism while the two other policies represent alternatively deterrent policies that increase the benefits of not committing terrorism. To analyze these policies, I use ARIMA modeling (N=120 months) and the Global Terrorism Database to determine whether each policy led to a significant change in overall attacks and the proportion of fatal attacks. While researchers have found mixed results when studying the effectives of traditional deterrence counterterrorist measures (Dugan, LaFree & Piquero; Enders & Sandler, 1993; Enders, Sandler & Cauley, 1990; LaFree, Dugan & Korte, 2009), I found that the Civil Concord Act, an amnesty program, as well as the Rome Platform, a negotiation policy, were related to a significant reduction in terrorism in Algeria.
An Analysis of the Correlation Between the Attitude, Belief, Opinion, and Demographic Components of Voluntary Forfeiture of One's Fourth Amendment Constitutional Right in Order to Permit Police Officers the use of New Concealed Weapons Detection Technology
(2002) Vann, Diane Hill Esq.; Wellford, Charles; Criminology & Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, MD)
The primary purpose of the study is to determine and analyze relationships between the major components of the participants' opinions, attitudes, and beliefs as to the effectiveness and willingness of individuals to voluntarily forfeit their Fourth Amendment Constitutional rights to permit the use of the new Concealed Weapons Detection Technology ("CWDT"). The new CWDT, as described in this study is capable of performing hands-off, non-intrusive body searches for contraband such as plastic explosives, drugs, and concealed weapons, specifically concealed guns. The study questions that Constitutionality of permitting police officers the use of such CWDT, and the Constitutionality of one's voluntary forfeiture of a Constitutional right to permit such use. Data collected for the study is from 100 residents of Madison, Wisconsin, and Washington, D.C., aged 18 years or older. The study analyzes Frequencies, Crosstabs, Chi Square, and Pearson's (r) and Spearman's (rs). The study although conducted before September 11, 2001, found that crime and terror remain great oppressors in the Nation, and that citizens are desparate for a resolution. The study reveals that the great majority of the study participants consider CWDT a positive solution.
An Analysis of the Correlation Between the Attitude, Belief, Opinion, and Demographic Components of Voluntary Forfeiture of One's Fourth Amendment Constitutional Right in Order to Permit Police Officers the Use of New Concealed Weapons Detection Technology
(2002) Vann, Diane Hill; Wellford, Charles; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md)
The primary purpose of the study is to determine and analyze relationships between the major components of the participants ' opinions , attitudes , and beliefs as to the effectiveness and willingness of individuals to voluntarily forfeit their Fourth Amendment Constitutional rights to permit the use of the new Concealed Weapons Detection Technology ("CWDT"). The new CWDT, as described in his study is capable of performing hands-off, noninrusive body searches for contraband such as plastic explosives, drugs, and concealed weapons, specifically concealed guns. The study questions the Constitutionality of permitting police officers the use of such CWDT, and the Constitutionality of one's voluntary forfeiture of a Constitutional right to permit such use. Data collected for the study is from 100 residents of Madison, Wisconsin , and Washington, D.C., aged 18 years or older. The study analyzes Frequencies, Crosstabs, Chi Square, and Pearson's(r) and Spearman's(r5). The study although conducted before September 11, 2001, found that crime and terror remain great oppressors in the Nation , and that citizens are desperate for a resolution. The study reveals that the great majority of the study participants consider CWDT a positive solution.
Anti-LGBTQ Hate Crime and Place in Washington, DC: A Multilevel Analysis
(2023) Kindall, Casey; Vélez, María B; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
The current study assesses how neighborhood-level LGBTQ prevalence, concentrated disadvantage, residential mobility, and racial diversity and the micro-spatial presence of LGBTQ establishments uniquely and jointly predict anti-LGBTQ hate crime. Extant research utilizes neighborhood-level explanations of crime to understand anti-LGBTQ hate crime but does not account for the influence of opportunity at the micro-place, and particularly the role of LGBTQ establishments as facilitators of anti-LGBTQ crime opportunity, for understanding where anti-LGBTQ hate crimes occur. The current study uses official hate crime data, demographic data from the US Census Bureau, and publicly available data on the location of LGBTQ-centered establishments to assess the roles of neighborhood-level and micro-spatial predictors of anti-LGBTQ hate crime in Washington, DC from 2017 to 2019. Results suggest that more anti-LGBTQ hate crimes occur in places with higher LGBTQ prevalence, more residential mobility, and more LGBTQ establishments. Residential mobility also interacts with the presence of LGBTQ establishments. Findings indicate that LGBTQ establishments are associated with more risk of hate crime in less mobile (i.e., more stable) neighborhoods.
Are Immigrants Crime Prone? A Multifaceted Investigation of the Relationship between Immigration and Crime in Two Eras
(2010) Bersani, Bianca; Laub, John H.; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Are immigrants crime prone? In America, this question has been posed since the turn of the 20th century and more than 100 years of research has shown that immigration is not linked to increasing crime rates. Nevertheless, as was true more than a century ago, the myth of the criminal immigrant continues to permeate public debate. In part this continued focus on immigrants as crime prone is the result of significant methodological and theoretical gaps in the extant literature. Five key limitations are identified and addressed in this research including: (1) a general reliance on aggregate level analyses, (2) the treatment of immigrants as a homogeneous entity, (3) a general dependence on official data, (4) the utilization of cross-sectional analyses, and (5) nominal theoretical attention. Two broad questions motivate this research. First, how do the patterns of offending over the life course differ across immigrant and native-born groups? Second, what factors explain variation in offending over time for immigrants and does the influence of these predictors vary across immigrant and native-born individuals? These questions are examined using two separate datasets capturing information on immigration and crime during two distinct waves of immigration in the United States. Specifically, I use the Unraveling Juvenile Delinquency data and subsequent follow-ups to capture early 20th century immigration and crime, while contemporary data come from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997. Three particularly salient conclusions are drawn from this research. First, patterns of offending (i.e., prevalence, frequency, persistence and desistance) are remarkably similar for native-born and immigrant individuals. Second, although differences are observed when examining predictors of offending for native-born and immigrant individuals, they tend to be differences in degree rather than kind. That is, immigrants and native-born individuals are influenced similarly by family, peer, and school factors. Finally, these findings are robust and held when taking into account socio-historical context, immigrant generation, immigration nationality group, and crime type. In sum, based on the evidence from this research, the simple answer to the question of whether immigrants are crime prone is no.
ARE JUVENILES TREATED DIFFERENTLY? EXAMINING CHARGE BARGAINS AMONG TRANSFERRED JUVENILES IN ADULT COURT
(2022) Manley, Melissa; Johnson, Brian; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Prior research has investigated the treatment of transferred juveniles in adultcourt compared to similar young adults, showing that youth may receive harsher penalties; however, relatively little work has explored the impact of prosecutorial decision-making. In attempts to address this issue, the current study uses data from large urban counties to examine the prevalence of charge reductions and the value of those decisions among a waived juvenile sample. Guided by several theoretical frameworks, I argue that transferred youth would be viewed differently by prosecutors, thus impacting their decisions. Findings show that transferred youth are less likely to receive a charge reduction compared to young adults and the value of the charge reductions, in terms of likelihood of incarceration, differs between the populations. Additionally, type of waiver mechanism also impacts the prevalence among the transferred juveniles. These results suggest that youth in adult court are potentially subjected to differential treatment from these court actors, thus affecting case outcomes.
ARE SUICIDE BOMBINGS REALLY UNIQUE? A MULTI-LEVEL ANALYSIS OF WORLDWIDE TERRORIST INCIDENTS, 1980-2015
(2017) Distler, Michael Robert; LaFree, Gary; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Suicide bombing is a lethal terrorism tactic that kills over 8 people per attack and injures 21 other people, on average. Suicide bombings have also been used more frequently in 2015 than they have in any one year since the tactic was first introduced in Iraq in 1981 and they were also used in more countries and by more groups than ever before. Even though the tactic is continuing to grow around the globe, there have been few studies seeking to understand in what ways the tactic is unique from other forms of terrorism. While theorists have attempted to explain the initiation and use of the tactic across various conflicts, there has been no previous study, of which I am aware, that compares suicide bombings to other relevant tactics, such as vehicle bombings, as well as to all other terrorist attacks in a multilevel framework. With this in mind, the current dissertation seeks to create a profile of suicide bombing by including a number of attack- and country-level variables in a multilevel model. Using data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) from 1980 through 2015, this dissertation compares 4,737 suicide bombings with 142,195 other terrorist attacks along a number of theoretically and empirically relevant variables. The attack, country-year, and country-level variables are used to test 5 hypotheses. Separate models were also run that included 7,130 vehicle bombings as a tactic separate from suicide bombings and all other terrorist attacks. Suicide bombings were also split into two categories, vehicle and non-vehicle. Using three-level HGLM analytical techniques, this dissertation found that only one of the five hypotheses received support across all 17 model specifications. Looking at the significance of variables across model specifications, a profile of suicide bombings was developed. Suicide bombings were more likely to: target security forces; be used in complex attacks; be carried out by known organizations; cause a greater number of fatalities; be used since 9/11; be used in international attacks; be used in more lethal conflicts; and be used in Muslim majority countries. Conversely, suicide bombings were less likely to: target civilians; be used in assassinations; and be successful. These findings call into question some of the main theories of suicide bombings, including those put forth by Pape and Bloom. However, this research does serve as a useful starting point for policy makers and practitioners in terms of understanding when, where, and how suicide bombings are used by different individuals and organizations around the world.
Assessing an Age-Graded Theory of Informal Social Control: Are There Conditional Effects of Life Events in the Desistance Process?
(2005-06-15) Doherty, Elaine Eggleston; Laub, John H; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
In 1993, Sampson and Laub presented their age-graded theory of informal social control in Crime in the Making: Pathways and Turning Points Through Life. In essence, Sampson and Laub state that, among offenders, strong social bonds stemming from a variety of life events predict desistance from criminal offending in adulthood. In the past decade, there has been a growing amount of research supporting this general finding. However, little research has examined the potential conditional effects of life events on desistance. Using Sheldon and Eleanor Gluecks' Unraveling Juvenile Delinquency data, their follow-up data to age 32, and the long-term follow-up data collected by John Laub and Robert Sampson, this research focuses on the potential conditional effects of marital attachment, stable employment, honorable military service, and long-term juvenile incarceration on criminal offending over the life course. Specifically, the present study tests Sampson and Laub's notion that strong social bonds predict desistance by asking two fundamental questions that bear on both theory and policy surrounding desistance from crime. First, does a high level of social integration as evidenced by the accumulation of social bonds stemming from life events within the same individual influence a person's level of offending and/or rate of desistance? Second, does the individual risk factor of low self-control or the related protective factor of adolescent competence interact with life events such that they differentially influence adult offending patterns? Using the longitudinal methodologies of semiparametric mixed Poisson modeling and hierarchical linear modeling, the analyses find additional support for Sampson and Laub's theory. First, a person's level of social integration significantly affects his future offending patterns even after controlling for criminal propensity and prior adult crime. Second, no significant interaction effects emerge between life events and individual characteristics on future offending patterns. The conclusion then is that a high level of social bonding within the same individual influences offending, regardless of a person's level of self-control or adolescent competence. The implications of this research for life-course theories of crime, future research, and policies regarding desistance are discussed.
Assessing the City-Level Impact of Drug Courts on Crime Rates, 1985-2000
(2005-05-03) Orrick, Erin; LaFree, Gary; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Drug court effectiveness is widely debated within the literature. Numerous evaluations of individual drug courts have been conducted, however, only recently has a consensus begun to emerge about the effectiveness of the drug court model in reducing recidivism and future drug use among participants. The purpose of this study is to assess the effectiveness of the implementation of drug courts in reducing drug-related crime. This analysis will add an additional level of understanding about the value of drug courts by examining the possible effects a city can attain by implementing a drug court. In this research, I tested whether cities with drug courts have significantly lower crime rates for drug-related offenses than similarly sized cities with comparable crime rates without drug courts. The results indicate that as a group, drug courts do not significantly reduce drug-related crime, however, some drug courts show promise for significantly reducing certain types of crime.
THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN SUSPENSION OR EXPULSION AND LATER SCHOOL SANCTIONS: DIFFERENCES BY STUDENT RACE AND SCHOOL RACIAL COMPOSITION
(2024) Potter, Abbey Nicole; Jacobsen, Wade; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
The present study investigates the relationship between early childhood suspension or expulsion and students’ odds of experiencing exclusionary discipline in adolescence. In particular, the study examines whether the relationship between childhood suspension and expulsion and the likelihood of experiencing exclusionary discipline in adolescence differs by the combination of student race and school racial composition. While labeling theory can speak to the role of individual student characteristics such as race in the labeling process, the theory is limited in that it says little about the role of social context. This study examines the impact of one aspect of school context, school racial composition, on the relationship between childhood and adolescent experiences of exclusionary discipline, drawing on insights from racial threat theory. The study uses data from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a prospective longitudinal study of youth born in large US cities between 1998 and 2000. Main findings include a positive relationship between childhood and adolescent experiences of exclusionary discipline, an independent effect of student race on year 15 suspension risk, and heightened risk for Black, previously-suspended youth in majority-minority school settings. Implications for labeling theory in context and surveillance of youth are discussed.
The Association of Early Conduct Problems and Early Marijuana Use in College Students
(2007-12-06) Falls, Benjamin Jacob; Wish, Eric D; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
While several studies have documented a strong association between early conduct problems and adolescent drug use, similar research has not been conducted among college students. The current study examines the association between early conduct problems and early marijuana use in a sample of 1,076 college students. A new early conduct problem scale is developed for purposes of analysis. Regression models are developed to test the strength of the association, holding constant covariates that have been shown in prior research to be related to marijuana use. Results reveal a significant positive association between early conduct problems and early marijuana use even after controlling for the covariates. The new scale produces results similar to a previously accepted scale studying early conduct problems in a non-college sample. The results have important prevention implications and suggest the importance of early interventions for reducing the risk for early marijuana use.
Beyond the Mainstream: A Theory Test of School Engagement and Sexual Assault
(2012) Vlajnic, Maja Milana; Thornberry, Terence P; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
While many mainstream criminological theories purportedly explain all types of crime, next to nothing in the literature tests for rape and sexual assault — an exceptional oversight, considering that an alternate theoretical explanation (feminist theory) exists for this class of crime. This thesis hopes to begin to rectify this gap in the literature by testing an aspect of control theory, the school bond. Using the National Youth Survey, logistic regression is applied to test the effects of school engagement (academic and athletic) on rapes attempted or completed by male adolescents. Support for neither the control theory hypothesis nor the feminist theory hypothesis is found, as neither engagement variable reaches significant results. However, this thesis still hopes to emphasize the necessity of literature specifically testing rape and sexual assault, and offers directions for future research to expand on this.
BUILDING A BASELINE: UNIFYING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL METHODOLOGIES TO UNDERSTAND ARCHAEOLOGICAL LOOTING IN EGYPT
(2019) Fabiani, Michelle Rose Dippolito; Dugan, Laura; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Archaeological looting – the illegal excavation or removal of an antiquity from the ground or structural complex of an archaeological site – is a persistent issue in many countries. National and international laws, agreements, conventions, and statutes all proscribe the looting transporting, possession, and sale of antiquities illegally removed from archaeological sites. Looting has also generated a lot of academic attention, with scholarship developing in archaeology, sociology, criminology, and law (among others). Despite such legal proscriptions and scholarly contributions to understanding this phenomenon, current efforts have been unable to produce tangible solutions for preventing this crime. Not only has there not yet been extensive scholarship to understand the link between looting and contextual forces, there is a dearth of research on the most effective ways to study these interconnected variables. Using a framework of routine activity theory, this dissertation proposes a new possible approach that considers spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal relationships to establish baseline data on patterns of archaeological looting attempts in Lower Egypt from 2015 to 2017 relative to sociopolitical, economic, and environmental stress — and to begin to address this research gap. Specifically, this dissertation proposes a methodology for collecting and coding data on archaeological looting attempts from satellite imagery. It then applies a series of spatial (clustering, proximity), temporal (SEM, VAR, ARDL), and spatio-temporal methods (clustering, hot spots analysis, spatial time series) to these data to demonstrate the importance of analyzing this phenomena multidimensionally.
Can Drug Courts Improve Public Safety? Exploring the Impacts of Drug Court on Crime
(2014) Zafft, Kathryn Marie; Gottfredson, Denise C; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Drug courts represent one of the largest and most widespread criminal justice programs specifically developed to provide treatment and intensive supervision to drug-involved offenders. Most of the literature about the effects of drug court programs involves individual-level analyses of recidivism or drug use for program participants. Very little is known about the broader community-wide impact of drug courts on public safety measures. The current research uses a subset of 63 drug court jurisdictions (cities and counties) drawn from a systematic review of drug court programs to assess the impact of program implementation on crime and arrest rates. A fixed-effects analysis was used to assess whether drug court implementation was associated with significant changes in specific types of violent and property crime rates. Changes in arrest rates for violent, property and drug crimes were also examined, and differential effects were explored based on effectiveness of the drug court in reducing participant recidivism and jurisdictional population size. Results indicate that drug courts are associated with decreases in overall crime rates, with marked decreases in burglary, property, and robbery rates. Drug court implementation was associated with increases in drug arrests and decreases in homicide arrests. Small jurisdictions with average populations of less than 100,000 people were found to have a different pattern of results when measuring both crime and arrest rates. These results are discussed within the context of understanding the broader policy impacts of drug court implementation.
Can self-control change substantially over time?: Rethinking the nature and role of self-control in Gottfredson and Hirschi's general theory of crime
(2011) Na, Chong Min; Paternoster, Raymond; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
The primary goal of this study is to verify if the changing level of structural and situational `sensitivity' to costs and benefits associated with deviant behaviors (e.g., Hirschi (2004) and Gottfredson (2006)'s redefined self-control, Tittle, Ward, and Grasmick's (2004) "desire to exercise self-control," Wikström and Treiber's (2007) "situationally-based" self-control) is associated with the changing level of more general `ability' to measure costs and benefits within individuals (e.g., Gottfredson and Hirschi's (1990) trait-like self-control, Tittle, Ward, and Grasmick's (2004) "capacity for self-control," Wikström and Treiber's (2007) "executive capability"). More importantly, to better disentangle the causal mechanisms underlying stability and change in offending behaviors over time, This study examines how low self-control as one of the constituent elements of offending propensity changes over time in the general population and across different study groups using both a hierarchical linear model (HLM) and a second-order latent growth model (LGM). Then, structural equation modeling (SEM) is employed to examine the on-going processes of cumulative advantage and disadvantage by more explicitly testing the bidirectional relationship of key theoretical constructs (e.g., self-control vs. social control/bond) over time. In contrast to the Gottfredson and Hirschi's prediction, this study found meaningful differences in the growth pattern of self-control among individuals in the population in general and especially across different study groups. Interestingly, the changing level of social control/bond triggered by experimental conditions accounted for the between-group difference observed. The same pattern persists when different analytic techniques and model specifications are applied to test the same research hypotheses, which suggests that the results are not an artifact of measurement error, model specification, or statistical methods. Most of all, this study was able to better disentangle the `long-term' relationship between self- and social control variables, which is found to be more dynamic and bidirectional than previously hypothesized.
CAN SOCIAL PROTESTS CHANGE LOCAL SENTENCING PATTERNS? EVIDENCE FROM THE 2015 BALTIMORE UPRISING
(2023) Li, Dixin; Johnson, Brian D; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Research examining the effects of violent protests has long produced mixed results and more recent studies are no more definitive. Very little work explicitly considers their potential impact on the criminal justice system, and particularly on the courts, the institution that primarily distributes punishment and exerts formal social control. At the same time, criminologists and sociologists agree that courts do not operate in a social vacuum but are embedded in layered contexts. Although some court research examines contextual effects, it has treated them as relatively inert over time, and little is known about how court decisions may deviate from their patterns in the face of sudden political turmoil. Bringing together varied lines of theories, this research discusses the effect of social protests on criminal courts, using data from the Maryland State Commission on Criminal Sentencing Policy (MSCCSP) to examine local sentencing pattern shifts in the aftermath of the 2015 death of Freddie Gray and the subsequent social unrest that follwed. This study analyzes (a) whether the overall punitiveness of courts changed after the event, (b) whether the change disparately impacted different racial and ethnic groups, and (c) whether these effects vary geographically across the state of Maryland.
Can the general theory of crime account for computer offenders: Testing low self-control as a predictor of computer crime offending
(2004-05-07) Foster, David Robert; Simpson, Sally S; Criminology and Criminal Justice
Using self-report measures of attitudinal and behavioral self-control, this study tests the applicability of Gottfredson and Hirschi's theory of low self-control as it applies to self-reported computer crime offending among a college student sample. Computer crime was found to be relatively common, with more than ninety-five percent of the sample reported having engaged in some form of illegal computer activity. The results offer moderate support for Gottfredson and Hirschi's general theory of crime, finding direct and positive effects for self-control and opportunity on computer offending, but not for the interaction between self-control and opportunity. The prevalence of computer-related offending is discussed in the context of the growing need to address the serious and widespread nature of computer crime. The study concludes by discussing the empirical and theoretical fit between the components of low self control, opportunity, and computer crime, as well as directions for future research.
Causal Inference with Group-Based Trajectories and Propensity Score Matching: Is High School Dropout a Turning Point?
(2006-04-28) Sweeten, Gary Allen; Bushway, Shawn D; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Life course criminology focuses on trajectories of deviant or criminal behavior punctuated by turning point events that redirect trajectories onto a different path. There is no consensus in the field on how to measure turning points. In this study I ask: Is high school dropout a turning point in offending trajectories? I utilize two kinds of matching methods to answer this question: matching based on semi-parametric group-based trajectory models, and propensity score matching. These methods are ideally suited to measure turning points because they explicitly model counterfactual outcomes which can be used to estimate the effect of turning point events over time. It has been suggested that dropout is the end result of a process of disengagement from school. In order to assess the effect of the event of dropout, it is necessary to separate dropout from the processes that lead to it. The extent to which this is accomplished by matching is assessed by comparing dropouts to matched non-dropouts on numerous background characteristics. As such, it is desirable to use a wide range of measures to compare the two groups. I use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to address this question. Delinquency is measured in two ways: a six-item variety scale and a scale based on a graded-response model. Dropout is based on self-reports of educational attainment supplemented with official transcripts provided by high schools. Because of the breadth of topics covered in this survey, it is very well-suited to matching methods. The richness of these data allows comparisons on over 300 characteristics to assess whether the assumptions of matching methods are plausible. I find that matching based on trajectory models is unable to achieve balance in pre-dropout characteristics between dropouts and non-dropouts. Propensity score matching successfully achieves balance, but dropout effects are indistinguishable from zero. I conclude that first-time dropout between the ages of 16 and 18 is not a turning point in offending trajectories. Implications for life course criminology and dropout research are discussed.
CAUSAL OR MERELY CO-EXISTING: A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF VIOLENCE AND DISORDER AT PLACES
(2007-08-02) Yang, Sue-Ming; Weisburd, David; Criminology and Criminal Justice; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
This research examines the relationship between disorder and violence across geography, specifically whether disorder and violence are causally related. This issue has generated much debate in the field of criminology. The broken windows thesis argues that untended disorder will lead to crime while social disorganization theory suggests that these two phenomena are merely spuriously related. To examine the longitudinal relationship between disorder and violence, this dissertation used data from the city of Seattle, Washington and analyzed them with dynamic statistical tools. Group-based trajectory analysis was used to identify different patterns of disorder and violence. The findings reveal a moderate level of spatial association between disorder and violence. Moreover, the results show that lack of disorder may be a protective factor for places in preventing future crime. This particular finding provides a new insight for crime prevention strategy. I further use Granger causality tests to examine the causal association between disorder and violence within selected violence and disorder hotspots. Findings from the Granger causality tests indicate that disorder does not lead to violence. As such the results suggest that public policy targeting disorder may not lead to crime reduction benefits. This particular finding challenges the notion of broken windows policing. Although broken windows policing might increase the chance to apprehend criminals due to the spatial clustering of social disorder and violence, the findings suggest that reducing levels of disorder will be unlikely to have strong impacts on crime rates. Additionally, potential collateral effects of police crackdowns on disorder need to be considered. Lastly, social disorder and physical disorder seem to relate to violence differently. Specifically, social disorder corresponds with violence more strongly than physical disorder. This issue has theoretical implications and should be explored further in future research.