Decision, Operations & Information Technologies
Permanent URI for this communityhttp://hdl.handle.net/1903/2230
Prior to January 4, 2009, this unit was named Decision & Information Technologies.
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Item ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF BIKE SHARING SYSTEMS(2022) Cao, Huan; Tunca, Tunay TT; Business and Management: Decision & Information Technologies; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)I study the efficiency of the dockless bike sharing system, and how to utilize the operational decisions to improve system efficiency and profit. In the first chapter, I empirically analyze riders' economic incentives in a dockless bike sharing system and explore how to improve the efficiency of this business model. Specifically, I aim to answer three main questions: (i) What is the impact of the number of bicycles in the system on efficiency? (ii) How can bike relocation be best used to improve utilization? (iii) How do the efficiency of dockless and dock-based systems compare? To address these questions, I first build a microeconomic model of user decision-making in a dockless bike sharing system. I then use this model together with transaction-level data from a major dockless bike-sharing firm to structurally estimate the customer utility and demand parameters. Using this estimation in counterfactual analysis, we find that the company can decrease the bicycle fleet size by 40% while maintaining 90% of transactions, leading to estimated savings of $6.5 Million. We further find that a spatial bicycle rebalancing system based on our customer utility model can improve daily transactions by approximately 19%. Finally, we demonstrate that without bicycle redistribution, a smartly designed dock-based system can significantly outperform a dockless system. Our model provides a utility-based model that allows companies to estimate not only transactions, but also the time and location of lost potential demand, which can be used to make targeted improvements to the geographic bike distribution. It also allows managers to fine-tune bicycle fleet sizes and spatial rebalancing parameters. Further, our structural demand modeling can be used to improve the efficiency of dock-based systems by helping with targeted dock location decisions. In the second chapter, using data from a major dockless bike sharing system in Beijing, I study the subscription behavior and its relationship with the service level and price. Specifically, I develop an econometric model to study the subscription behavior for both existing subscribers and new sign-ups, respectively, and build up a functional relationship between the service level and system demand level and reveal the dynamics and interplays among subscription, system demand, and service level, which helps to recover the evolution of the number of subscribers over time. Based on all the estimation results and functional relationships, I then construct an empirical framework and straighten out the relationship between company profit and bicycle fleet size/subscription price. The counterfactual results show that the marginal benefit of deploying a larger bicycle fleet is decreasing, and the company should be cautious in determining and adjusting the bicycle fleet size. In addition, the examination demonstrates that the current price is too low, and raising the price properly can achieve about a 25% profit increase. The results also show the value of understanding riders' sensitivity to price and how to use it to better their operational decisions and accomplish better financial results. The counterfactual framework I proposed can be utilized in various policy evaluations and provides important insights and recommendations to the bikeshare companies and regulators.Item An Operations Management Framework to Improve Geographic Equity in Liver Transplantation(2022) Akshat, Shubham; Raghavan, S.; Business and Management: Decision & Information Technologies; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)In the United States (U.S.), on average three people die every day awaiting a liver transplant for a total of 1,133 lives lost in 2021. While 13,439 patients were added to the waiting list in 2021, only 9,236 patients received liver transplantation. To make matters worse, there is significant geographic disparity across the U.S. in transplant candidate access to deceased donor organs. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is keen to improve transplant policy to mitigate these disparities. The deceased donor liver allocation policy has been through three major implementations in the last nine years, but yet the issue persists. This dissertation seeks to apply operations management models to (i) understand transplant candidate behavior, and (ii) suggest improvements to transplant policy that mitigate geographic disparity. In the first essay, we focus on reducing disparities in the organ supply to candidate demand (s/d) ratios across transplant centers. We develop a nonlinear integer programming model that allocates organ supply to maximize the minimum s/d ratios across all transplant centers. We focus on circular donation regions that address legal issues raised with earlier organ distribution frameworks. This enables reformulating our model as a set-partitioning problem and our proposal can be viewed as a heterogeneous donor circle policy. Compared to the current Acuity Circles policy that has fixed radius circles around donation locations, the heterogeneous donor circle policy greatly improves both the worst s/d ratio, and the range of s/d ratios. With the fixed radius policy of 500 nautical miles (NM) the s/d ratio ranges from 0.37 to 0.84 at transplant centers, while with the heterogeneous circle policy capped at a maximum radius of 500NM the s/d ratio ranges from 0.55 to 0.60, closely matching the national s/d ratio of 0.5983. Broader sharing of organs is believed to mitigate geographic disparity. Recent policies are moving towards broader sharing in principle. In the second essay, we develop a patient's dynamic choice model to analyze her strategic response to a policy change. First, we study the impact of the Share 35 policy, a variant of broader sharing introduced in 2013, on the behavioral change of patients at the transplant centers (i.e., change in their organ acceptance probability), geographic equity, and efficiency (transplant quality, offer refusals, survival benefit from a transplant, and organ travel distance). We find that sicker patients became more selective in accepting organs (acceptance probability decreased) under the Share 35 policy. Second, we study the current Acuity Circles policy and conclude that it would result in lower efficiency (more offer refusals and a lower transplant benefit) than the previous Share 35 policy. Finally, we show that broader sharing in its current form may not be the best strategy to balance geographic equity and efficiency. The intuition is that by indiscriminately enlarging the pool of supply locations from where patients can receive offers, they tend to become more selective, resulting in more offer rejections and less efficiency. We illustrate that the heterogeneous donor circles policy that equalizes the s/d ratios across geographies is better than Acuity Circles in achieving geographic equity at the lowest trade-off on efficiency metrics. The previous two essays demonstrate the benefit of equalizing the s/d ratios across geographies. In December 2018 the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) Board of Directors approved the continuous distribution framework as the desired policy goal for all the organ allocation systems. In this framework, the waiting list candidates will be prioritized based on several factors, each contributing some points towards the total score of a candidate. The factors in consideration are medical severity, expected post-transplant outcome, the efficient management of organ placement, and equity. However, the respective weights for each of these potential factors are not yet decided. In the third essay, we consider two factors, medical severity and the efficient management of organ placement (captured using the distance between the donor hospital and transplant center), and we design an allocation policy that maximizes the geographic equity. We develop a mathematical model to calculate the s/d ratio of deceased-donor organs at a transplant center in a continuous scoring framework of organ allocation policy. We then formulate a set-partitioning optimization problem and test our proposals using simulation. Our experiments suggest that reducing inherent differences in s/d ratios at the transplant centers result in saving lives and reduced geographic disparity.Item DATA-DRIVEN ESSAYS: ROLE OF PRICING AND RETURNS(2022) Hemmati, Sahar; Elmaghraby, Wedad J; Business and Management: Decision & Information Technologies; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)In this dissertation, we identify leavers in retailers’ operations such as their shipping policy design as well as markdown strategy which can significantly impact their product returns and the costs associated with it. We study how a high free shipping thresholds can induce shoppers to place orders with an intention to return a part of the order later. Using an empirical approach, which exploits natural experiments, we confirm that high threshold and/or high shipping fees induce a substantial order padding behavior, which leads to lower sales revenue, after adjusting for returns. However, we find that such behavior can be largely alleviated with frictions to returns. We propose that retailers looking to design their shipping policy should correctly account for return environment features. We also explore the link between a retailer’s markdown pricing strategies and its impact on customers’ purchase and return behavior. We specifically study the distinction between regular price markdowns and bundle price markdowns and the key contributors to such distinctions, and how they contribute to sales and customers’ return behavior. Capturing this notion and the heterogeneous impact of bundle and regular discounts on merchandise with different substitutability or complementarity as well as correlation between items at return stage, we offer recommendations on how a retailer should approach the design of their markdown strategies.Item Data Analytics and Mathematical Models to Facilitate Disease Prevention in the U.S.(2020) Apergi, Lida Anna; Baras, John; Golden, Bruce; Business and Management: Decision & Information Technologies; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)The U.S. is leading in healthcare expenditures worldwide, but health outcomes in the U.S. are not reflective of the level of spending. Prevention plays a crucial role in improving the health of individuals in the U.S., since it helps people live longer and healthier lives. Preventive services include actions that prevent diseases from ever occurring, detect diseases at an early stage, and manage diseases that have already been diagnosed. In this dissertation, we use data analytics and mathematical modeling techniques to better understand factors that influence disease prevention and help provide efficient solutions. In the first part of this dissertation, we study two problems of disease prevention at the public health level. First, we investigate the impact of state-level vaccination exemption policy and of the highly publicized Disneyland measles outbreak on MMR vaccination rates of young children. At the same time, we highlight the impact that the choice of socioeconomic factors can have on measurement results. We estimate the impact of these policies using multiple linear regression. Furthermore, we study the sensitivity of the results by examining a number of different approaches for the selection of socioeconomic control variables. Second, we utilize big data to estimate the additive cost of chronic diseases and study their cost patterns. We model the cost based on a cost hierarchy; that is, the cost of each condition is modeled as a function of the number of other more expensive chronic conditions the individual has. Using large scale claims data, we identify members that suffer from one or more chronic conditions and estimate their healthcare expenditures. Through our analysis, we categorize the chronic conditions into different expenditure groups based on the characteristics of their cost profiles. In the second part of this dissertation, we study two problems of disease prevention at the healthcare provider level, focusing in the area of cardiology. First, we study the adoption of conversational agent technology by patients with heart failure. Conversational agents can help patients with heart failure to manage their condition and provide frequent feedback to their healthcare providers. We analyze data from two studies, with each study focusing on a different type of conversational agent. We compare the two types of conversational agent technologies in terms of patient engagement, and investigate which patient characteristics are important in determining the patient engagement. Second, we tackle the problem of outpatient scheduling in the cardiology department of a large medical center. The outpatients have to go through a number of diagnostic tests and treatments before they can complete the final procedure. We develop an integer programming model to schedule appointments that are convenient for the outpatients by minimizing the number of visits that the patients have to make to the hospital and the time they spend waiting in the hospital. Furthermore, we investigate whether scheduling outpatients in groups can lead to better schedules for the patients.Item DATA-DRIVEN OPTIMIZATION AND STATISTICAL MODELING TO IMPROVE DECISION MAKING IN LOGISTICS(2019) Sinha Roy, Debdatta; Golden, Bruce; Business and Management: Decision & Information Technologies; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)In this dissertation, we develop data-driven optimization and statistical modeling techniques to produce practically applicable and implementable solutions to real-world logistics problems. First, we address a significant and practical problem encountered by utility companies. These companies collect usage data from meters on a regular basis. Each meter has a signal transmitter that is automatically read by a receiver within a specified distance using radio-frequency identification (RFID) technology. The RFID signals are discontinuous, and each meter differs with respect to the specified distance. These factors could lead to missed reads. We use data analytics, optimization, and Bayesian statistics to address the uncertainty. Second, we focus on an important problem experienced by delivery and service companies. These companies send out vehicles to deliver customer products and provide services. For the capacitated vehicle routing problem, we show that reducing route-length variability while generating the routes is an important consideration to minimize the total operating and delivery costs for a company when met with random traffic. Third, we address a real-time decision-making problem experienced in practice. In one application, routing companies participating in competitive bidding might need to respond to a large number of requests regarding route costs in a very short amount of time. In another application, during post-disaster aerial surveillance planning or using drones to deliver emergency medical supplies, route-length estimation would quickly need to assess whether the duration to cover a region of interest would exceed the drone battery life. For the close enough traveling salesman problem, we estimate the route length using information about the instances. Fourth, we address a practical problem encountered by local governments. These organizations carry out road inspections to decide which street segments to repair by recording videos using a camera mounted on a vehicle. The vehicle taking the videos needs to proceed straight or take a left turn to cover an intersection fully. Right turns and U-turns do not capture an intersection fully. We introduce the intersection inspection rural postman problem, a new variant of the rural postman problem involving turns. We develop two integer programming formulations and three heuristics to generate least-cost vehicle routes.Item Algorithms for Online Advertising Portfolio Optimization and Capacitated Mobile Facility Location(2017) Sahin, Mustafa; Raghavan, Subramanian; Business and Management: Decision & Information Technologies; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)In this dissertation, we apply large-scale optimization techniques including column generation and heuristic approaches to problems in the domains of online advertising and mobile facility location. First, we study the online advertising portfolio optimization problem (OAPOP) of an advertiser. In the OAPOP, the advertiser has a set of targeting items of interest (in the order of tens of millions for large enterprises) and a daily budget. The objective is to determine how much to bid on each targeting item to maximize the return on investment. We show the OAPOP can be represented by the Multiple Choice Knapsack Problem (MCKP). We propose an efficient column generation (CG) algorithm for the linear programming relaxation of the problem. The computations demonstrate that our CG algorithm significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art linear time algorithm used to solve the MCKP relaxation for the OAPOP. Second, we study the problem faced by the advertiser in online advertising in the presence of bid adjustments. In addition to bids, the advertisers are able to submit bid adjustments for ad query features such as geographical location, time of day, device, and audience. We introduce the Bid Adjustments Problem in Online Advertising (BAPOA) where an advertiser determines base bids and bid adjustments to maximize the return on investment. We develop an efficient algorithm to solve the BAPOA. We perform computational experiments and demonstrate, in the presence of high revenue-per-click variation across features, the revenue benefit of using bid adjustments can exceed 20%. Third, we study the capacitated mobile facility location problem (CMFLP), which is a generalization of the well-known capacitated facility location problem that has applications in supply chain and humanitarian logistics. We provide two integer programming formulations for the CMFLP. The first is on a layered graph, while the second is a set partitioning formulation. We develop a branch-and-price algorithm on the set partitioning formulation. We find that the branch-and-price procedure is particularly effective, when the ratio of the number of clients to the number of facilities is small and the facility capacities are tight. We also develop a local search heuristic and a rounding heuristic for the CMFLP.Item Mathematical Programming Models for Influence Maximization on Social Networks(2016) Zhang, Rui; Raghavan, Subramanian; Business and Management: Decision & Information Technologies; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)In this dissertation, we apply mathematical programming techniques (i.e., integer programming and polyhedral combinatorics) to develop exact approaches for influence maximization on social networks. We study four combinatorial optimization problems that deal with maximizing influence at minimum cost over a social network. To our knowl- edge, all previous work to date involving influence maximization problems has focused on heuristics and approximation. We start with the following viral marketing problem that has attracted a significant amount of interest from the computer science literature. Given a social network, find a target set of customers to seed with a product. Then, a cascade will be caused by these initial adopters and other people start to adopt this product due to the influence they re- ceive from earlier adopters. The idea is to find the minimum cost that results in the entire network adopting the product. We first study a problem called the Weighted Target Set Selection (WTSS) Prob- lem. In the WTSS problem, the diffusion can take place over as many time periods as needed and a free product is given out to the individuals in the target set. Restricting the number of time periods that the diffusion takes place over to be one, we obtain a problem called the Positive Influence Dominating Set (PIDS) problem. Next, incorporating partial incentives, we consider a problem called the Least Cost Influence Problem (LCIP). The fourth problem studied is the One Time Period Least Cost Influence Problem (1TPLCIP) which is identical to the LCIP except that we restrict the number of time periods that the diffusion takes place over to be one. We apply a common research paradigm to each of these four problems. First, we work on special graphs: trees and cycles. Based on the insights we obtain from special graphs, we develop efficient methods for general graphs. On trees, first, we propose a polynomial time algorithm. More importantly, we present a tight and compact extended formulation. We also project the extended formulation onto the space of the natural vari- ables that gives the polytope on trees. Next, building upon the result for trees---we derive the polytope on cycles for the WTSS problem; as well as a polynomial time algorithm on cycles. This leads to our contribution on general graphs. For the WTSS problem and the LCIP, using the observation that the influence propagation network must be a directed acyclic graph (DAG), the strong formulation for trees can be embedded into a formulation on general graphs. We use this to design and implement a branch-and-cut approach for the WTSS problem and the LCIP. In our computational study, we are able to obtain high quality solutions for random graph instances with up to 10,000 nodes and 20,000 edges (40,000 arcs) within a reasonable amount of time.Item Essays on Supply Chain Finance(2016) Zhu, Weiming; Tunca, Tunay; Business and Management: Decision & Information Technologies; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)I study how a larger party within a supply chain could use its superior knowledge about its partner, who is considered to be financially constrained, to help its partner gain access to cheap finance. In particular, I consider two scenarios: (i) Retailer intermediation in supplier finance and (ii) The Effectiveness of Supplier Buy Back Finance. In the fist chapter, I study how a large buyer could help small suppliers obtain financing for their operations. Especially in developing economies, traditional financing methods can be very costly or unavailable to such suppliers. In order to reduce channel costs, in recent years large buyers started to implement their own financing methods that intermediate between suppliers and financing institutions. In this paper, I analyze the role and efficiency of buyer intermediation in supplier financing. Building a game-theoretical model, I show that buyer intermediated financing can significantly improve supply chain performance. Using data from a large Chinese online retailer and through structural regression estimation based on the theoretical analysis, I demonstrate that buyer intermediation induces lower interest rates and wholesale prices, increases order quantities, and boosts supplier borrowing. The analysis also shows that the retailer systematically overestimates the consumer demand. Based on counterfactual analysis, I predict that the implementation of buyer intermediated financing for the online retailer in 2013 improved channel profits by 18.3%, yielding more than $68M projected savings. In the second chapter, I study a novel buy-back financing scheme employed by large manufacturers in some emerging markets. A large manufacturer can secure financing for its budget-constrained downstream partners by assuming a part of the risk for their inventory by committing to buy back some unsold units. Buy back commitment could help a small downstream party secure a bank loan and further induce a higher order quantity through better allocation of risk in the supply chain. However, such a commitment may undermine the supply chain performance as it imposes extra costs on the supplier incurred by the return of large or costly-to-handle items. I first theoretically analyze the buy-back financing contract employed by a leading Chinese automative manufacturer and some variants of this contracting scheme. In order to measure the effectiveness of buy-back financing contracts, I utilize contract and sales data from the company and structurally estimate the theoretical model. Through counterfactual analysis, I study the efficiency of various buy-back financing schemes and compare them to traditional financing methods. I find that buy-back contract agreements can improve channel efficiency significantly compared to simple contracts with no buy-back, whether the downstream retailer can secure financing on its own or not.Item APPLYING OPERATIONS RESEARCH MODELS TO PROBLEMS IN HEALTH CARE(2015) Price, Stuart Patrick; Golden, Bruce; Business and Management: Decision & Information Technologies; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Intensity- modulated radiation therapy is a form of cancer treatment that directs high energy x-rays to irradiate a tumor volume. In order to minimize the damage to surround-ing tissue the radiation is delivered from multiple angles. The selection of angles is an NP-hard problem and is currently done manually in most hospitals. We use previously evaluated treatment plans to train a machine learning model to sort potential treatment plans. By sorting potential treatment plans we can find better solutions while only evalu-ating a fifth as many plans. We then construct a genetic algorithm and use our machine learning models to search the space of all potential treatment plans to suggest a potential best plan. Using the genetic algorithm we are able to find plans 2% better on average than the previously best known plans. Proton therapy is a new form of radiation therapy. We simulated a proton therapy treatment center in order to optimize patient throughput and minimize patient wait time. We are able to schedule patients reducing wait times between 20% and 35% depending on patient tardiness and absenteeism. Finally, we analyzed the impact of operations research on the treatment of pros-tate cancer. We reviewed the work that has been published in both operations research and medical journals, seeing how it has impacted policy and doctor recommendations.Item MANAGING INNOVATIONS: INFORMATION AND CONTRACTS(2014) Chen, He; Xu, Yi; Business and Management: Decision & Information Technologies; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Innovation has been acknowledged by both researchers and practitioners as a vital tool to yield growth and maintain competitive advantages. However, firms face stiff challenges in managing innovations. Developing new product generally requires substantial resource input, but the success rate is usually low due to internal technical difficulties and external market uncertainties. Even with successful innovative products, it is not guaranteed that the innovators will be rewarded for their efforts and investments, as the return from innovations may be siphoned off by suppliers, customers, and competitors. To profit from innovations, firms need to first create value with the right R&D strategies, and further capture value in the execution of innovations when dealing with the relevant partners. This dissertation studies the management of innovations and addresses these two important issues respectively. In the first essay, we investigate how strategically managing information can improve the new product performances in competitive R&D markets. The new product development process is essentially a series of inter-linked information processing activities: firms generate ideas, gather information from external environment to evaluate the feasibility and potential of the ideas, conduct research to create new knowledge and intellectual property, and finally commercialize the new knowledge into the market to generate value. We focus on how firms should acquire and manage external market information in competitive R&D markets, and how the information acquisition and management strategies impact their R&D investment decisions. The second essay studies how firms should manage the relationship with the relevant parties in the execution of innovations. The intrinsic uncertainty in the materialization of innovations, the intangibility of technical knowledge assets, and the difficulty of specifying and monitoring the performance of the other party, are the primary clauses that give rise to the hold-up problem in innovation partnerships -- that is, the R&D investment by a firm leaves it vulnerable to ex post opportunistic behaviors by its contracting partner (whether its supplier, customer, or joint venture partner). We study how the operational aspect of an evolving relationship may influence a firm's innate incentives to take advantage and `hold-up' the partner and mitigate the hold-up problem in innovation partnerships. The third essay extends the discussion of hold-up problem to general incomplete contracts and moral Darwinism. In conventional economic models, rational players are usually assumed to be self-interested and can take opportunistic actions to maximize their own payoffs, while socially desirable traits such as honesty and trust are often characterized as irrational and studied as deviations from tenets of rationality. However, these irrational traits are commonly observed in practice despite the widespread nature of incomplete contracts which have plenty of room for opportunism. This essay asks why traits such as honesty have not been weeded out by economic Darwinism, and offers a justification that the choice of honesty emerges both as desirable and rational under very reasonable conditions.