Public Policy

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Accelerating Climate-Mitigating Technology Development and Deployment
(2019-04) Edwards, Morgan R.; Surana, Kavita; Thomas, Zachary; Williams, Ellen D.
Policymakers and investors alike covet better information about the risks and potential of early-stage technologies. The motivation for the workshop on accelerating climate-mitigating technology development and deployment was to explore how different perspectives from the policy, analysis, and investor communities involved in clean energy innovation may be combined for more effective decision making.
Acknowledging Survival: Political Recognition and Indigenous Climate Adaptation in the United States
(2021) Cottrell, Clifton; Bierbaum, Rosina; Sprinkle, Robert; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Indigenous peoples in the United States are already disproportionately experiencing the impacts of climate change. Closely related to tribal efforts to manage climate effects are historical endeavors to assert indigenous sovereignty and govern tribal lands, but deficiencies in the process used by the U.S. government to acknowledge tribal sovereignty have left hundreds of indigenous communities unrecognized and especially vulnerable to climate harm. My dissertation aims to determine whether a tribe’s recognition status affects its capacity for climate adaptation. To make this determination, I utilize a case study methodology wherein I analyze the circumstances of one non-federally recognized tribe, the Burt Lake Band of Ottawa and Chippewa Indians, in three critical areas related to adaptation and tribal recognition — access to key species and cultural resources, utilization of federal funding opportunities, and participation in climate decision-making. Tribal access to resources is often predicated by historical treaty rights, so I applied a theme identification technique to extrapolate important strategies on easing barriers to resource access and regulatory authority. I then used the themes to compare the likelihood of the Burt Lake Band and nearby federally recognized tribes to maintain connections to key species in the future. I next employed a comparative statutory analysis methodology to differentiate eligibility for non-federally recognized tribes accessing federal funding. I also assessed tribal climate adaptation plans and interviewed tribal climate plan managers on the barriers to successful implementation of adaptation actions. Finally, I developed criteria from a review of global literature on the inclusion of indigenous peoples in adaptation projects to assess participatory opportunities for the Burt Lake Band in state and regional climate governance. My findings show that the Band’s lack of federal recognition inhibits its adaptive capacity to access key cultural resources, federal funding, and climate governance opportunities. However, I also conclude that state and local perceptions of tribal identity could have a greater influence on the adaptation of non-federally recognized tribes, so I recommend that a more inclusive federal recognition system be implemented to avoid the unequal development of indigenous adaptive capacity based on disparate approaches to indigenous affairs by state and local jurisdictions.
Adaptive Agent Modeling in a Policy Context
(2004-12-15) Gulden, Timothy R; Daly, Herman E; Public Affairs; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
This dissertation examines the utility of adaptive agent modeling (also referred to as agent-based modeling or individual based modeling) as a tool in public policy research. It uses the adaptive agent technique to produce useful results in three diverse areas. It demonstrates that the adaptive agent framework can be used to extend traditional models of comparative advantage in international trade, showing that the presence of increasing returns to scale in some industries shifts the basis of comparative advantage arguments, making room for industrial policy and the regulation of trade. Next, the dissertation demonstrates that the size distribution of cities within nations, generally thought to approximate the "Zipf" distribution, can be reproduced using a simple agent-based model. This model produces insights into the evolution of the distribution as well as departures from it especially in France and Russia. This understanding of urban dynamics has implications for easing the structural transition of the Russian economy and for designing policies to reduce the size of megacities in the developing world. The dissertation goes on to examine individual level data from the Guatemalan civil war from an adaptive agent modeling perspective. It finds several novel patterns in the data which may serve as benchmarks for adaptive agent modeling efforts and suggests avenues by which existing conflict models might be brought into closer accord with the data. The dissertation concludes that adaptive agent modeling is useful in a policy context because it allows quantitative work to be done while relaxing some of the unrealistic assumptions which are often required to gain analytical traction using traditional methods. The method is found to be particularly useful in situations where path dependence, heterogeneity of actors, bounded rationality, and imperfect information are significant features of the system under examination. The individual based nature of the method is also found to be well suited to assessing distributional impacts of changes in process or policy.
Alternatives to NMD
(Lawyers Alliance for World Security, 2000) Fetter, Steve; Mendelsohn, Jack
In Chapter VI, Steve Fetter and Jack Mendelsohn outline Alternatives to NMD. There exists an effective alternative to NMD for dealing with the potential ballistic missile threat: strengthening the interlocking and complementary barriers to proliferation created by deterrence, arms control (including transparency measures), economic incentives, cooperative programs, export controls, preemption and civil defense.
The American Banker as International Investor: Have the new banking powers in the U.S. increased the volatility of lending into emerging economies?
(2007-04-24) Cho, Hyun Koo; Destler, Irving McArthur; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Using U.S. cross-border bank exposure data, this study establishes a line of arguments and findings, which together constitute the following observation: "Deregulation of U.S. banks, via consolidation and a volatile earnings stream, increased volatility in bank lending to emerging economies, and, in due course, worsened the financial crises in emerging economies." The volatility of U.S. bank lending to emerging economies has increased during the past twenty years. To explain the across-the-board, increasing volatility of U.S. bank emerging market claims, this study turns to the supply side of the equation: the deregulation in the U.S. banking sector that imparted this commonality to their banks' investment patterns to emerging economies. In so doing, it unveils the linkages through which U.S. banking deregulation ratcheted up the volatility of U.S. bank lending into emerging economies. It starts with the detection of a particular feature of U.S. bank emerging market lending that warrants further attention -- increasing volatility over time. Unlike bank lending from Europe or Japan, U.S. bank lending exhibited the unique feature of increasing volatility over time, regardless of its destination. By looking into domestic push factors that could have contributed to this characteristic, this study identified a temporal association between important deregulation initiatives in the U.S. banking industry and the volatility of emerging market lending by U.S. banks during the same period. This association was then explained by the linkages between the major outcomes of deregulation -- consolidation of the banking industry and diversification of banking activities -- and the increased volatility of lending into emerging economies. Together, it argues that the U.S. banking deregulation had the unintended and unanticipated side effect of increasing the volatility of U.S. bank lending into emerging economies.
An Econometric Analysis of Sea Surface Temperatures, Sea Ice Concentrations and Ocean Surface Current Velocities
(MDPI, 2022-12-01) Bhargava, Alok; Echenique, Juan A.
This paper analyzed quarterly longitudinal data for 64,800 1 × 1 degree grids during 2000–2019 on sea surface temperatures, sea ice concentrations, and ocean surface current zonal and meridional velocities in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The methodological framework addressed the processing of remote sensing signals, interdependence between sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, and combining zonal and meridional velocities as the eddy kinetic energy. Dynamic and static random effects models were estimated by maximum likelihood and stepwise methods, respectively, taking into account the unobserved heterogeneity across grids. The main findings were that quarterly sea surface temperatures increased steadily in the Northern hemisphere, whereas cyclical patterns were apparent in Southern hemisphere; sea ice concentrations declined in both hemispheres. Second, sea surface temperatures were estimated with large negative coefficients in the models for sea ice concentrations for the hemispheres; previous sea ice concentrations were negatively associated with sea surface temperatures, indicating feedback loops. Third, sea surface temperatures were positively and significantly associated with eddy kinetic energy in Northern hemisphere. Overall, the results indicated the importance of reducing sea surface temperatures via reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and the dumping of pollutants into oceans for maintaining sea ice concentrations and enhancing global sustainability.
Analysis of the Labor Impacts of Clean Energy Transitions in the Power Sector in India
(2020) Sharma, Anjali; Patwardhan, Anand; Hultman, Nathan; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
The inevitability of climate action means that India needs to rapidly transition to a low-carbon economy while working towards its development goals. Though considered an emerging economy, India still lags behind on development indicators such as employment generation, and poverty eradication. As creation of ‘green jobs’ is recognized as an important co-benefit of climate mitigation, clean energy transitions can help India meet both its climate and employment goals. However, assessments of the labor impacts of clean energy transitions for India remain limited. In this dissertation, I explore the case of the power sector in India in detail. I first assess the economy-wide labor impacts of power generation in India in 2030 under different decarbonization scenarios. I use input-output modeling for this analysis. Second, I assess the regional distribution of the labor impacts associated with clean energy transitions using a spread-sheet based model. Finally, I assess the distribution of jobs in renewable and fossil-fuel based industries by skills. My results show that the total job creation in scenarios with accelerated deployment of renewable energy (RE) is relatively lower than business-as-usual scenarios on account of lower total power generation in the former scenarios, and greater economy-wide labor impacts of coal. I also find that the new jobs that are generated in solar and wind sectors will be concentrated in the western and southern parts of India, with 60% of the total jobs being generated in the states of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. Clean energy transitions would increase the requirement of semi-skilled, and skilled RE workforce, particularly for solar, in these states. In order to maximize the employment benefits associated with clean energy transitions, the Indian government should design industrial policies to steer domestic manufacturing of clean energy technologies. Coal-rich eastern states should be prioritized as locations for development of new industries to compensate for the clean energy transitions related job, and economic revenue losses. Finally, employment data for energy sector, including renewable technologies, should be collected regularly for a better assessment of the social and economic impacts of clean energy transitions.
ANALYTICAL TOOLS AND DECISION RULES: CREDIT BUDGETING AND TAX EXPENDITURES
(2018) McClarin, Elizabeth Anne; Schick, Allen; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Numerous reforms have improved the supply and quality of federal financial, budget, and performance information. Debate persists, however, about the value of information and how to best use it to improve decisions and outcomes. To make information more powerful, some reforms move beyond enriching information to using it as the basis of decision rules that dictate or constrain decisions, actions, or outcomes. A motivation behind decision rules is the concern that information alone does not suffice, but decision rules raise fresh challenges and disagreements. The dissertation’s case studies examine the emergence and evolution of federal budget decision rules. The first case – the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 (FCRA) - examines a budget decision rule that has been sustained for almost three decades. The second case - budgeting for tax expenditures – examines reforms that resulted in more analytical information but stopped short of a tax expenditure specific budget decision rule. In both cases, concerns emerged decades ago about a lack of budget oversight and control; analytical tools were improved; and budget decision rules were proposed. By juxtaposing a “successful” reform (i.e., enacted and sustained) and an “unsuccessful” reform (i.e. non-enacted) the dissertation examines the factors and conditions influencing whether analytical information is reformatted into a workable and sustained budget decision rule. The case study experiences suggest a cautioned approach to the establishment of federal budget decision rules with a first principle of avoiding overloading the budget and budget processes, especially when existing budget processes are not fully functioning. While sound budget principles and technical expertise help shape budget decision rules, the quest for analytical improvement must be balanced with political, institutional, and implementational realities. The case studies indicate that analytical tools and budget decision rules matter, but that those seeking to establish new budget decision rules should consider the fragile role they play, and avoid overpromising benefits and underestimating the need for careful design and continued oversight and refinement.
Application and Implementation of the Supply Chain Reference (SCOR) Model at the United States Department of Defense (DoD)
(2012) Arendt Jr., Michael James; Gansler, Jacques S.; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
DoD's supply-chain supports over 1 million uniformed, civilian, and contract employees, manages over $90 billion in inventory, and maintains some 15,000 aircraft, 300 ships, and 30,000 combat vehicles. The supply-chain is undeniably the backbone of DoD operations, ultimately enabling it to achieve mission success under a variety of situations. In recent years, the DoD has pursued numerous initiatives for the purposes of improving its supply-chain. Motivations to seek improvements (such as asset tracking, reduced errors, etc.), decreased costs, and increased responsiveness for the warfighter have been plentiful; however, measured improvement thus far has been difficult to ascertain. It is the intent of this research to establish a framework to enable DoD to use industry best practices and process improvements from the Supply Chain Operations Reference Model (SCOR) as a tool for Defense supply-chain modernization efforts. To accomplish this, the dissertation will address the following research questions: 1. How can the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model be adapted for use as an enterprise-level tool by the United States Department of Defense? 2. Once adapted, what barriers to the implementation of this new tool exist? 3. How can these barriers be overcome?
ARE CANADA’S NET-ZERO PLANS ACHIEVABLE, PRUDENT, AND DURABLE?
(2024) O'Keefe, Kowan; Sprinkle, Robert; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Canada is a major oil- and gas-producing country that has committed into law the goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy-wide by 2050. Yet the prospect of reduced Canadian oil production has major domestic political and economic implications. Climate change mitigation requires sustained policy engagement, and so policymakers must endeavor to make climate policy that is politically durable. Scenario analysis is a vital decision-support tool for understanding these transition dynamics associated with pursuit of net zero. The first paper in this dissertation explores transition dynamics for Canada across several scenarios with detailed policy representation for achieving net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), an open-source multi-sector dynamics model. The results highlight the importance of effective policy implementation and the variation in transition dynamics attributable to socioeconomic and technological assumptions, carbon dioxide removal scalability, and non-CO2 mitigation. The second paper in this dissertation uses GCAM to examine the sensitivity of Canadian oil production to several external forces in pursuit of net zero. The results show that forces outside of Canada’s control are highly determinative of future oil production levels in Canada. But if Canada moves toward net-zero GHG emissions on its announced timeline, it can reduce the magnitude of the additional declines in Canadian oil production attributable to external forces. Such a move would give Canada greater autonomy to shape transition outcomes in a way that best balances domestic societal priorities. The alternative would be for external forces to thrust a transition upon Canada without regard for such domestic concerns. The third paper in this dissertation examines how these domestic political forces impact Canada’s pursuit of net zero using archival analysis followed by scenario analysis in GCAM. The results of the qualitative policy analysis highlight that a little more than one third (9 of 26) of the modeled policies are less likely to be politically durable, because they fail tests of pan-political acceptability or pan-regional acceptability or both. Reductions in net GHG emissions are significantly smaller in modeled current-policy scenarios where these nine policies are rolled back after 2025. Accordingly, the policies identified as less likely to be politically durable demand greater focus to build stronger cross-party and cross-regional support.
The Army Seeks a World Class Logistics Modernization Program
(Naval Postgraduate School, 2004-06) Lucyshyn, William; Snider, Keith; Maly, Robert
Assessing Motives for Russian Federation Use and Non-use of Force: An Approach to Improve the Strategic Planning and Policy of the United States
(2021) Hickey, Christopher John; Gallagher, Nancy W.; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
The purpose of this dissertation is to inform scholarship and improve U.S. policy and strategy to prevent the Russian Federation from using military force against U.S. interests. It does this by exploring and answering the question, what explains the Russian Federation’s choices on the use of military force? The dissertation developed and demonstrated an approach to translating policy debates into sufficiently rigorous sets of competing explanations of strategic behavior for expectations about future behavior under various conditions to be stated and tested. The explanations developed and tested used motives derived from The Rational Theory of International Politics by Glaser and The Logic of Political Survival by Bueno De Mesquita, Smith, Siverson, and Morrow. Systematic analysis of competing explanations attempted to find incongruence between the expectations if a motive was a plausible explanation and the behaviors actually observed since 1991. This dissertation found that the Russian Federation’s choices on the use of military force are explainable by the balancing of three motives. These choices have prioritized first the motive of the president’s political survival, then Russia’s self-protection/security motive, and then Russia’s domination/greed motive. This suggests that the Russian Federation calculates risks when making these choices differently than currently assumed. The most important risks influencing these decisions are those related to the future of the Russian president’s political winning coalition. These findings allow the U.S. to take a game theory-informed approach to strategic planning that seeks to prevent the use of military force against U.S. interests at a lower level of costs and risks than the current approach. The United States should develop a strategy to foster three somewhat contradictory calculations simultaneously. The U.S. strategy needs to communicate that the negative consequences of using force would outweigh whatever potential benefit might tempt the domination/greed motive. At the same time, the strategy needs to communicate that if Russia acts with restraint, then Russian self-protection/security motive concerns will be addressed cooperatively. Most importantly, the strategy needs to influence the Russian president’s calculations about whether using or not using force against U.S. interests would be better for personal political survival.
Assessing The Global War On Terror: Measuring The Impact Of US Foreign Terrorist Organization Designation On Salafi Jihadist Group Behavior
(2023) Sturm, Amy Buenning; Gallagher, Nancy; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
This study evaluates the impact of foreign terrorist organization (FTO) designation, a core US counterterrorism tool that unlocks legal, financial, and administrative penalties for terrorist groups, against Salafi jihadist terrorist organizations. Using publicly available data from 2001 to 2018, this research takes a quantitative and qualitative mixed methods approach to evaluate if FTO designation of Salafi jihadist terrorist groups alters their behavior by reducing terrorist membership or changing their attack patterns and lethality. The quantitative portion examines the impact of designation across three primary dependent variable behavior categories: group and membership size; attacks and lethality; and targeting. The qualitative portion looks at the range of possible best to worst case behavior outcomes for groups after designation and seeks to determine which, if any, designation-associated activities drove a reduction in violence. In this study FTO designation did not advance US policy objectives of reducing terrorist group and membership size, decreasing the number and lethality of attacks, or hardening targets against Salafi jihadist attack. Post-designation Salafi jihadist areas of operations experienced overall growth in the number of groups and membership. FTO designation reverses some pre-designation trends in rising attack frequency and lethality, but the results are not statistically significant. Moreover, designation does not significantly impact group targets or attack type. The qualitative case studies use US government reported data on designation-associated activities alongside captured media to explain variance in group outcomes post-designation. The case studies reveal that a terrorist group’s international versus national presence prior to designation better explains variation in outcomes than designation-associated activities. Groups able to flex across national boundaries were seemingly more resilient to CT pressure. The most international group was the most unaffected by designation, while the most nationally focused group was the most impacted. While FTO designation was not causally linked to the desired Salafi jihadist behavioral outcomes, the directional shift in some groups attack frequency and lethality shortly following designation suggest designation’s impact warrants further study, including gathering improved official data and yearly metrics on designation-associated effects. As the US reduces its CT footprint, FTO designation and associated metrics can help guide future operations to target Salafi jihadist groups more efficiently, informing future US government CT efforts.
Balancing Belligerents or Feeding the Beast: Transforming Conflict Traps
(2016) Hayden, Nancy Kay; Orr, Robert; Steinbruner, John; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Since the end of the Cold War, recurring civil conflicts have been the dominant form of violent armed conflict in the world, accounting for 70% of conflicts active between 2000-2013. Duration and intensity of episodes within recurring conflicts in Africa exhibit four behaviors characteristic of archetypal dynamic system structures. The overarching questions asked in this study are whether these patterns are robustly correlated with fundamental concepts of resiliency in dynamic systems that scale from micro-to macro levels; are they consistent with theoretical risk factors and causal mechanisms; and what are the policy implications. Econometric analysis and dynamic systems modeling of 36 conflicts in Africa between 1989 -2014 are combined with process tracing in a case study of Somalia to evaluate correlations between state characteristics, peace operations and foreign aid on the likelihood of observed conflict patterns, test hypothesized causal mechanisms across scales, and develop policy recommendations for increasing human security while decreasing resiliency of belligerents. Findings are that observed conflict patterns scale from micro to macro levels; are strongly correlated with state characteristics that proxy a mix of cooperative (e.g., gender equality) and coercive (e.g., security forces) conflict-balancing mechanisms; and are weakly correlated with UN and regional peace operations and humanitarian aid. Interactions between peace operations and aid interventions that effect conflict persistence at micro levels are not seen in macro level analysis, due to interdependent, micro-level feedback mechanisms, sequencing, and lagged effects. This study finds that the dynamic system structures associated with observed conflict patterns contain tipping points between balancing mechanisms at the interface of micro-macro level interactions that are determined as much by factors related to how intervention policies are designed and implemented, as what they are. Policy implications are that reducing risk of conflict persistence requires that peace operations and aid interventions (1) simultaneously increase transparency, promote inclusivity (with emphasis on gender equality), and empower local civilian involvement in accountability measures at the local levels; (2) build bridges to horizontally and vertically integrate across levels; and (3) pave pathways towards conflict transformation mechanisms and justice that scale from the individual, to community, regional, and national levels.
Ballistic Missiles and Weapons of Mass Destruction: What Is the Threat? What Should be Done?
(Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 1991) Fetter, Steve
Iraqi missile attacks against cities in Israel and Saudi Arabia have focused attention on the continuing proliferation of ballistic missile technology throughout the third world. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 25 countries have acquired or are trying to acquire ballistic missiles, either through purchase or indigenous production. All but a few are developing countries, and the list encompasses some of the most volatile regions of the world. The greatest concentration is in the Middle East, where nine nations have missile programs. Missiles have also spread to other hot spots, including India and Pakistan, North and South Korea, Brazil and Argentina, Taiwan, and South Africa.
BARGAINING WITH THE RISING POWER: An Analytical Model of China's Trade Policy-making
(2014) Xu, Susan Shan; Destler, I. M.; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
In bilateral trade disputes with China, the US has greater aggregate power and bargaining resources, yet it had uneven success in extracting concessions. The dissertation aims to address this question: Why does American pressure encounter Chinese resistance, different in issue-topics and time period? In order to interpret China's trade policy-making, I build an analytical framework, which integrates three streams of scholarship: (1) Bounded rationality models how China, as a bounded rational player, adjusted behaviors based on its perception in the learning process; (2) The garbage can model studies the Chinese government as organized anarchies and its non-standard operation; and (3) The two-level game theory reveals how China strikes the balance between domestic bargaining and international negotiations. With the assistance of this model, I conduct a detailed case study of the Sino-American negotiations for the 1999 Bilateral Agreement on China's Accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). My research reveals that China tended to yield to American threats when the Chinese reform-minded top leaders finished power transition, when trade was perceived as a solution to China's economic problems, and when the US Congress and executive branch united for credible threats. American pressure confronted strong Chinese resistance when the Chinese protectionists and nationalists had leverage so that the political cost of compliance was high for pro-trade officials, and when the Chinese perceived the divide in American commercial interests and the realignment in American political arena on China issue. Moreover, American pressure encountered less Chinese resistance in issue-topics, behind which were a politically weak industry and a ministry. By contrast, American pressure encountered strong resistance in issue-topics, behind which were a politically strong industry and agency created by long-term policy preference. Upon the case study, I argue that the effectiveness of American threats backed by trade sanctions declined. In bargaining with this rising power, the US should first discern how China perceives its self-interests and build strategic linkage of it to trade liberalization, and then employ the combination of persuasion with appeal to self-interests and tying hands by congressional pressure in bilateral trade negotiations.
Better than my neighbor? Testing for overconfidence in COVID-19 preventive behaviors in Latin America
(Springer Nature, 2022-05-18) Boruchowicz, Cynthia; Lopez Boo, Florencia
Procrastination and lack of attention may often hinder the implementation of preemptive actions necessary to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 like washing hands, covering nose and mouth with a mask, and keeping social distance. It is in such “easy” tasks that people (mistakenly) believe that they are better than others. In this paper we test for overconfidence bias in COVID-19 preventive behaviors in Latin America. Using a phone survey in nationally representative samples from 10 Latin American countries where randomly, half of the sample in each country was asked about self-reported compliance to COVID-19 guidelines, and half about preventive behavior of fellow citizens compared to them; we tested: if the proportion of individuals claiming that others comply with a certain measure “Always more frequent than me” is higher than those stating that they “Never” or “Sometimes” comply with the same measure (i.e. people believe they are better at doing something than what they actually are). Over 90% of Latin-Americans claim to always wear a mask and sanitize their hands and more than 80% state to always keep social distance. We also find evidence of overconfidence in every behavior – except for keeping distance in public transportation. Moreover, the magnitude of such overconfidence is higher for behaviors such as wearing masks in public or washing hands than for those regarding keeping the 2-m distance. To our knowledge, this is the first study to measure overconfidence in COVID-19 preventive behaviors in Latin America. Results show that more effort is needed to encourage people to comply with the regulation when it does not only depend on them: a better organization of closed stores and public transportation are, for instance, crucial to allow social distancing. It also suggests that a reinforcement of basic measures is essential, as individuals report to be performing them more frequently than when they have to think about such behaviors compared to others.
Bridging Fiscal Divergence in China
(2011) Shen, Chunli; Schick, Allen; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
This dissertation asks, from the fiscal perspective, whether the Chinese government has been effective in moving towards a more equitable development strategy. It seeks to answer this question through an in-depth examination of China's intergovernmental fiscal system with respect to the following three aspects: public expenditure policies, fiscal inequality, and the intergovernmental fiscal transfer system. Chapter 1 aims to provide a comprehensive review of China's experience in fiscal decentralization. It examines the system of central control in the pre-reform period of 1949 to 1978; the fiscal contracting system, which resulted from a series of ad hoc decentralization reforms between 1979 and 1993; and the single most important intergovernmental fiscal reform, that of 1994. Following a thorough history and background knowledge of China's fiscal system in Chapter 1, Chapter 2 provides an institutional analysis of China's public expenditure policies by looking into the following three areas, expenditure assignment, expenditure composition and local accountability. This chapter tries to answer the question of whether China's public expenditure management serves the objective of adequate and equitable public services provision. Chapter 3 examines fiscal inequality at the provincial, prefectural, and county levels of government. Where data are available, the spending inequality on core public services is also explored. There is also a comparison of fiscal inequality at the provincial, prefectural, and county levels. With Chinese leaders and citizens expressing increasing concern at the regional inequalities that have accompanied China's rapid growth, the question of the redistributive effectiveness of the intergovernmental transfer system has become more and more important. The distribution of fiscal resources is taking the center stage in policy debates because the poorest regions may not be financially equipped to provide the most basic public services, such as education and health care, at the national average levels. The intergovernmental transfer system could ease fiscal disparities by equalizing fiscal capacity across regions. Chapter 4 conducts a comprehensive evaluation of the redistributive effects of the intergovernmental transfer system, at both the provincial and the county levels.
BUDGETING DURING UNCERTAINTY: BUDGETING AND PUBLIC SPENDING IN POST- REVOLUTIONARY EGYPT
(2018) Abd ElMoez Hassanein, Sally; Joyce, Philip; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
Most of the literature on budgeting focuses on the study of the budget process during times of political stability. There is little research on what happens to the budget process and to public expenditures when countries experience political instability and regime change. This dissertation attempts to fill this gap in the literature by studying how the political and economic uncertainty that result from revolution and regime change affect the budget process and public spending through a study of the Egyptian budget process and patterns of public expenditures following two revolutions and a transition period marked by instability. The analysis utilizes budget data and interviews with officials from Egypt’s Ministry of Finance. This dissertation identifies the challenges decision makers face in preparing and executing the budget in Egypt after the 2011 and 2013 revolutions. Findings from this research indicate that planning and preparing the budget was a challenging task as new and sudden political and economic events brought about new realities almost every day and necessitated mid-year adjustments. The political environment was characterized by rising dissent, protests, increasing public demands and security challenges. This volatility contributed to increasing expenditures on salaries of government employees, subsidies and social programs. The worsening economic situation that resulted from political instability added more pressures on the public purse and resulted in increasing spending. For the same reasons, spending on investments and developmental expenditures declined. More spending also meant increasing deficit, accumulation of more public debt and increasing interest payments which leads to further deterioration of the fiscal standing of the country. This research also finds that as the political environment started to stabilize the new government initiated bold reforms that involved cutting fuel subsidies and enacting a new civil service law to control the increase in salaries. Savings made from reducing fuel subsidies are directed to increase spending on investments, on health and education and on better targeted transfer programs.
Can gender-responsive budgeting change how governments budget?: Lessons from the case of Ecuador.
(Wiley, 2023-04-01) Martínez Guzmán, Juan Pablo
Gender-responsive budgeting (GRB) has been introduced in over 80 countries to mitigate gender inequities. We evaluate if these reforms can influence policy making and enhance gender-oriented accountability. Our analysis follows the process-tracing methodology and includes over 20 in-depth interviews. Our findings show significant public administration obstacles to GRB, but success is possible in institutions with proper leadership, human, and technological resources. This study advances our understanding of the operational limits of GRB, highlights areas for future research on equity-oriented reforms, and sheds light on issues that practitioners need to account for as they strive to further gender equity.