Theses and Dissertations from UMD
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Item Observed Teleconnections in Northern Winter: Subseasonal Evolution and Tropical Linkages(2016) Baxter, Stephen Robert; Nigam, Sumant; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Teleconnections refer to the climate variability links between non-contiguous geographic regions, and tend to be associated with variability in both space and time of the climate’s semi-permanent circulation features. Teleconnections are well-developed in Northern winter, when they influence subseasonal-to-seasonal climate variability, notably, in surface temperature and precipitation. This work is comprised of four independent studies that improve understanding of tropical-extratropical teleconnections and their surface climate responses, subseasonal teleconnection evolution, and the utility of teleconnections in attribution of extreme climate events. After an introduction to teleconnection analysis as well as the major teleconnection patterns and associated climatic footprints manifest during Northern winter, the lagged impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on subseasonal climate variability is presented. It is found that monitoring of MJO-related velocity potential anomalies is sufficient to predict MJO impacts. These impacts include, for example, the development of significant positive temperature anomalies over the eastern United States one to three weeks following an anomalous convective dipole with enhanced (suppressed) convection centered over the Indian Ocean (western Pacific). Subseasonal teleconnection evolution is assessed with respect to the Pacific-North America (PNA) pattern and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This evolution is analyzed both in the presence and absence of MJO-related circulation anomalies. It is found that removal of the MJO results only in small shifts in the centers of action of the NAO and PNA, and that in either case there is a small but significant lag in which the NAO leads a PNA pattern of opposite phase. Barotropic vorticity analysis suggests that this relationship may result in part from excitation of Rossby waves by the NAO in the Asian waveguide. An attempt is made to elegantly differentiate between the MJO extratropical response and patterns of variability more internal to the extratropics. Analysis of upper-level streamfunction anomalies is successful in this regard, and it is suggested that this is the preferred method for the real time monitoring of tropical-extratropical teleconnections. The extreme 2013-2014 North American winter is reconstructed using teleconnection analysis, and it is found that the North Pacific Oscillation-West Pacific (NPO/WP) pattern was the leading contributor to climate anomalies over much of North America. Such attribution is cautionary given the propensity to implicate the tropics for all midlatitude climate anomalies based on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) paradigm. A recent hypothesis of such tropical influence is presented and challenged.Item MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE INTERACTIONS IN A MULTI-SCALE FRAMEWORK(2009) Zhou, Lei; Murtugudde, Raghu; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)The ocean-atmosphere coupling can play a role in initiating and sustaining the Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJOs), which are the major intraseasonal oscillations in the atmosphere. In this thesis, the oceanic influence on MJOs is studied with reanalysis products, numerical models, and idealized theoretical models. The energy sources for MJOs are calculated with NCEP reanalysis. The perturbed potential energy is found to be the most important energy source for most MJO events. In some MJO events, the sea surface is warmed due to the reduced latent heat flux during the suppressed phase of MJOs. As a result, warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) occur, which appear to prolong the life time of these MJO events. In a minority of the MJO events, warm SSTAs can drive the atmosphere actively and trigger MJO events. In these events, the warm SSTAs are attributable to the internal oceanic processes influenced by the warm Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), which spreads from the southeastern Indian Ocean to the western Indian Ocean and modifies the subtle balance between stratification and mixing in the western Indian Ocean. In addition, during the transit period between monsoon seasons, a few MJO events are sustained by the energy obtained from the mean kinetic energy. Since the MJO events have different energy sources, their mechanisms should be considered in the context of these energy sources. While the spatial scale of the SSTAs in the Indian Ocean is only of order 100 km, the scale of MJOs is of order 1000 km, raising the potential for interactions between the oceanic and the atmospheric oscillations with different scales and this is demonstrated to be possible with analytical solutions to idealized linear governing equations. With a reasonable choice of parameters, the meso-scale oceanic and the large-scale atmospheric oscillations can interact with each other and lead to unstable waves in the intraseasonal band in this linear coupled model. The coupling and frequency shifts between oscillations with different scales and the atmospheric/oceanic responses to small variations in the external forcing are also tested with numerical models. Incorporating the oceanic influence on MJOs and the multi-scale interaction appropriately in a numerical model is supposed to help improve the simulation and forecast of MJOs. The hypothesis of multi-scale interaction is also expected to have wide applications in other studies, in addition to the MJO-SST interaction. The theoretical and numerical approach adopted here should also serve as a prototype for enhancing the process understanding of intraseasonal variability and lead to improved predictive understanding.