Now showing 1 - 5 of 21
- ItemAn Assessment of the Impact of Land Thermal Infrared Observation on Regional Weather Forecasts Using Two Different Data Assimilation Approaches(MDPI, 2018-04-18) Fang, Li; Zhan, Xiwu; Hain, Christopher R.; Yin, Jifu; Liu, Jicheng; Schull, Mitchell A.Recent studies have shown the unique value of satellite-observed land surface thermal infrared (TIR) information (e.g., skin temperature) and the feasibility of assimilating land surface temperature (LST) into land surface models (LSMs) to improve the simulation of land-atmosphere water and energy exchanges. In this study, two different types of LST assimilation techniques are implemented and the benefits from the techniques are compared. One of the techniques is to directly assimilate LST using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation (DA) utilities. The other is to use the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inversion model (ALEXI) as an “observation operator” that converts LST retrievals into the soil moisture (SM) proxy based on the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration (fPET), which is then assimilated into an LSM. While most current studies have shown some success in both directly the assimilating LST and assimilating ALEXI SM proxy into offline LSMs, the potential impact of the assimilation of TIR information through coupled numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is unclear. In this study, a semi-coupled Land Information System (LIS) and Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) system is employed to assess the impact of the two different techniques for assimilating the TIR observations from NOAA GOES satellites on WRF model forecasts. The NASA LIS, equipped with a variety of LSMs and advanced data assimilation tools (e.g., the ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF)), takes atmospheric forcing data from the WRF model run, generates updated initial land surface conditions with the assimilation of either LST- or TIR-based SM and returns them to WRF for initializing the forecasts. The WRF forecasts using the daily updated initializations with the TIR data assimilation are evaluated against ground weather observations and re-analysis products. It is found that WRF forecasts with the LST-based SM assimilation have better agreement with the ground weather observations than those with the direct LST assimilation or without the land TIR data assimilation.
- ItemHow Urban Form Characteristics at Both Trip Ends Influence Mode Choice: Evidence from TOD vs. Non-TOD Zones of the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area(MDPI, 2019-06-20) Nasri, Arefeh; Zhang, LeiUnderstanding travel behavior and its relationship with built environment is crucial for sustainable transportation and land-use policy-making. This study provides additional insights into the linkage between the built environment and travel mode choice by looking at the built environment characteristics at both the trip origin and destination in the context of transit-oriented development (TOD). The objective of this research is to provide a better understanding of how travel mode choice is influenced by the built environment surrounding both trip end locations. Specifically, it investigates the effect of transit-oriented development policy and the way it affects people’s mode choice decisions. This is accomplished by developing discrete choice models and consideration of urban form characteristics at both trip ends. Our findings not only confirmed the important role the built environment plays in influencing mode choice, but also highlighted the influence of policies, such as TOD, at both trip end locations. Results suggest that the probability of choosing transit and non-motorized modes is higher for trips originating and ending in TOD areas. However, the magnitude of this TOD effect is larger at trip origin compared to destination. Higher residential and employment densities at both trips ends are also associated with lower probability of auto and higher probability of transit and non-motorized mode choices.
- ItemThermodynamic, Non-Extensive, or Turbulent Quasi-Equilibrium for the Space Plasma Environment(MDPI, 2019-08-22) Yoon, Peter H.The Boltzmann–Gibbs (BG) entropy has been used in a wide variety of problems for more than a century. It is well known that BG entropy is additive and extensive, but for certain systems such as those dictated by long-range interactions, it is speculated that the entropy must be non-additive and non-extensive. Tsallis entropy possesses these characteristics, and is parameterized by a variable q (𝑞=1 being the classic BG limit), but unless q is determined from microscopic dynamics, the model remains a phenomenological tool. To this day, very few examples have emerged in which q can be computed from first principles. This paper shows that the space plasma environment, which is governed by long-range collective electromagnetic interaction, represents a perfect example for which the q parameter can be computed from microphysics. By taking the electron velocity distribution function measured in the heliospheric environment into account, and considering them to be in a quasi-equilibrium state with electrostatic turbulence known as quasi-thermal noise, it is shown that the value corresponding to 𝑞=9/13=0.6923, or alternatively 𝑞=5/9=0.5556, may be deduced. This prediction is verified against observations made by spacecraft, and it is shown to be in excellent agreement. This paper constitutes an overview of recent developments regarding the non-equilibrium statistical mechanical approach to understanding the non-extensive nature of space plasma, although some recent new developments are also discussed.
- ItemElement Abundances of Solar Energetic Particles and the Photosphere, the Corona, and the Solar Wind(MDPI, 2019-11-20) Reames, Donald V.From a turbulent history, the study of the abundances of elements in solar energetic particles (SEPs) has grown into an extensive field that probes the solar corona and physical processes of SEP acceleration and transport. Underlying SEPs are the abundances of the solar corona, which differ from photospheric abundances as a function of the first ionization potentials (FIPs) of the elements. The FIP-dependence of SEPs also differs from that of the solar wind; each has a different magnetic environment, where low-FIP ions and high-FIP neutral atoms rise toward the corona. Two major sources generate SEPs: The small “impulsive” SEP events are associated with magnetic reconnection in solar jets that produce 1000-fold enhancements from H to Pb as a function of mass-to-charge ratio A/Q, and also 1000-fold enhancements in 3He/4He that are produced by resonant wave-particle interactions. In large “gradual” events, SEPs are accelerated at shock waves that are driven out from the Sun by wide, fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A/Q dependence of ion transport allows us to estimate Q and hence the source plasma temperature T. Weaker shock waves favor the reacceleration of suprathermal ions accumulated from earlier impulsive SEP events, along with protons from the ambient plasma. In strong shocks, the ambient plasma dominates. Ions from impulsive sources have T ≈ 3 MK; those from ambient coronal plasma have T = 1 – 2 MK. These FIP- and A/Q-dependences explore complex new interactions in the corona and in SEP sources.
- ItemA Dynamic Bayesian Network Structure for Joint Diagnostics and Prognostics of Complex Engineering Systems(MDPI, 2020-03-12) Lewis, Austin D.; Groth, Katrina M.Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) represent complex time-dependent causal relationships through the use of conditional probabilities and directed acyclic graph models. DBNs enable the forward and backward inference of system states, diagnosing current system health, and forecasting future system prognosis within the same modeling framework. As a result, there has been growing interest in using DBNs for reliability engineering problems and applications in risk assessment. However, there are open questions about how they can be used to support diagnostics and prognostic health monitoring of a complex engineering system (CES), e.g., power plants, processing facilities and maritime vessels. These systems’ tightly integrated human, hardware, and software components and dynamic operational environments have previously been difficult to model. As part of the growing literature advancing the understanding of how DBNs can be used to improve the risk assessments and health monitoring of CESs, this paper shows the prognostic and diagnostic inference capabilities that are possible to encapsulate within a single DBN model. Using simulated accident sequence data from a model sodium fast nuclear reactor as a case study, a DBN is designed, quantified, and verified based on evidence associated with a transient overpower. The results indicate that a joint prognostic and diagnostic model that is responsive to new system evidence can be generated from operating data to represent CES health. Such a model can therefore serve as another training tool for CES operators to better prepare for accident scenarios.