Biology Theses and Dissertations
Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://hdl.handle.net/1903/2749
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Item The Role of Water Quality in Beach Visitation Decisions in Croatia: Implications for Development of the Tourism Industry(2007-08-02) Dvarskas, Anthony Charles; Lipton, Douglas; Marine-Estuarine-Environmental Sciences; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Croatia is experiencing a surge in popularity as tourists are attracted to its pristine coastal waters. Although the growth of the tourism industry would bring increased revenues from visitation, the development of tourism could negatively impact the coastal resources. Worsening water quality could cause certain beaches, areas, or regions to become less desirable and consequently less likely to be visited. This study was designed to determine the role ofwater quality in tourists' decisions to visit beaches in Split-Dalmatia County and Krk Island using a conditional logit model. In addition to determining the role of water quality, this study used a multiple regression model to delineate the impact of changes in tourist numbers upon coastal water quality. As a final analysis, the findings from the economic conditional logit model were combined with an ecological multiple regression model in a 25-year dynamic model. Results of the conditional logit model indicated that water quality is positively and significantly related to the probability of a beach being selected by non-Croatian tourists in Split-Dalmatia County. Local perceptions of the safety of water for swimming also were significant predictors of the beach visitation decisions of non-Croatian tourists to Krk Island. The multiple regression model indicated that the presence of more tourists is significantly related to worse coastal water quality. Finally, the dynamic model indicated that higher numbers of tourists over time would eventually lead to higher total coliform levels and that beaches without sewage treatment or removal of total coliforms would experience a declining probability of selection by non-Croatian tourists over the 25-yr period. The dynamic model also indicated that driving tourists to a beach by addition of a Blue Flag may have unintended consequences in the absence of sewage treatment as the increasing numbers of tourists decrease the water quality and the probability of that beach being selected over the long term. These findings have important implications for policymakers and planners in Croatia, as the decision to pursue tourism growth without concomitant investments in sewage infrastructure may not be sustainable for the long term.Item INTEGRATED ECOLOGICAL ECONOMIC MODELING OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES FROM THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON RAINFOREST(2004-10-26) Portela, Rosimeiry G.; Costanza, Robert; Marine-Estuarine-Environmental Sciences; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)This dissertation links the natural and social sciences, using modeling techniques to enhance understanding of the functioning of a complex ecosystem and its relevance to humans. For this purpose, I developed a Regional Unified Metatomodel of the Brazilian Amazon (RUMBA) to simulate the Amazon forest provision of ecosystem goods and services and their contribution to human economy and welfare. The model was also used to simulate the potential effect of an incentive to reduce deforestation in return for a payment for avoided releases of carbon into the atmosphere. Simulation was done from 1975 to 2100, with calibration performed for the first 25 years, and for four scenarios: a baseline scenario, based on historical trends, and four alternative scenarios based on different assumptions and policy choices. The baseline scenario shows deforestation proceeding at high rates, leading to decreasing provision of forest goods and services and increasing economic growth. The growth of GRP per capita, on the other hand, remains much smaller than that of GRP. Regional welfare decreases significantly over the simulated period. The overall monetary contribution of ecosystem goods and services to the regional economy is estimated as 5 times the GRP in year 2100. Scenarios of increased investment in development yielded higher economic growth accompanied by lower levels of welfare, while opposite trends were found for scenarios of higher investment in human, knowledge and natural capital. Finally, results also show that in order for a monetary compensation to represent a significant incentive to land owners to reduce deforestation, higher prices for avoided carbon emissions would have to be set than current prices of the emerging carbon market. Main research findings are that increasing land use change in the Brazilian Amazon incurs significant losses of ecosystem services without this being adequately offset by increasing monetary income or welfare of people. This reseach has also found that in the absence of significant incentives from global beneficiaries for any one ecosystem service, or a combination of incentives addressing several types of ecosystem services, rational land uses at the local level lead to sub-optimal provision of these services from the global perspective.