UMD Theses and Dissertations
Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://hdl.handle.net/1903/3
New submissions to the thesis/dissertation collections are added automatically as they are received from the Graduate School. Currently, the Graduate School deposits all theses and dissertations from a given semester after the official graduation date. This means that there may be up to a 4 month delay in the appearance of a given thesis/dissertation in DRUM.
More information is available at Theses and Dissertations at University of Maryland Libraries.
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Item An Ex Post Evaluation of the U.S. Acid Rain Program(2014) Chan, Hei Sing; Cropper, Maureen; Economics; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Emissions trading programs have been recommended by economists and implemented by policy makers because they are expected to keep compliance costs low; but, studies on actual savings are limited. This paper is the first to conduct a comprehensive ex post analysis of the cost savings from the Acid Rain Program (ARP), the largest emissions trading program to be implemented in the U.S. In Chapter 2, I provide a brief overview of the Acid Rain Program. I then discuss other policies that are relevant to evaluating the ARP including the New Source Performance Standard and local emission standards. I conclude the chapter by analyzing the determinants of local emission standards and arguing that it is safe to treat these standards as exogenous. In Chapter 3 I illustrate the cost savings from a cap-and-trade system such as the ARP, and discuss factors affecting the potential gains from trade and the determinants. I then estimate a discrete choice model of coal procurement and scrubber installation to recover structural parameters of compliance cost functions at the generating unit level. Using the model I predict compliance choices under a uniform emission standard that yields the same aggregate emissions as the ARP. In Chapter 4, I estimate cost savings under the ARP to be about 265-380 million (1995 USD) per year. The numbers are much smaller than in previous literature (Carlson et al., 2000; Ellerman et al., 2000). I propose that lower transport costs reduced cost heterogeneity across generating units, and that improvements in scrubbing technology and state policies may have also contributed to a decrease in cost savings.Item Implications of heterogeneity in discrete choice analysis(2013) Martinez-Cruz, Adan Leobardo; McConnell, Kenneth E.; Agricultural and Resource Economics; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)This dissertation carries out a series of Monte Carlo simulations seeking the implications for welfare estimates from three research practices commonly implemented in empirical applications of mixed logit and latent class logit. Chapter 3 compares welfare measures across conditional logit, mixed logit, and latent class logit. The practice of comparing welfare estimates is widely used in the field. However, this chapter shows comparisons of welfare estimates seem unable to provide reliable information about the differences in welfare estimates that result from controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. The reason is that estimates from mixed logit and latent class logit are inherently inecient and inaccurate. Researchers tend to use their own judgement to select the number of classes of a latent class logit. Chapter 4 studies the reliability of welfare estimates obtained under two scenarios for which an empirical researcher using his/her judgement would arguably choose less classes than the true number of classes. Results show that models with a number of classes smaller than the true number tend to yield down- ward biased and inaccurate estimates. The latent class logit with the true number of classes always yield unbiased estimates but their accuracy may be worse than models with the smaller number of classes. Studies implementing discrete choice experiments commonly obtain estimates of preference parameters from latent class logit models. This practice, however, implies a mismatch: discrete choice experiments are designed under the assumption of homogeneity in preferences, and latent class logit search for heterogeneous preferences. Chapter 5 studies whether welfare estimates are robust to this mismatch. This chapter checks whether the number of choice tasks impact the reliability of welfare estimates. The findings show welfare estimates are unbiased regardless the number of choice tasks, and their accuracy increases with the number of choice tasks. However, some of the welfare estimates are inefficient to the point that cannot be statistically distinguished from zero, regardless the number of choice tasks. Implications from these findings for the empirical literature are discussed.Item ANALYSIS OF ACTIVITY CHOICE: THE ROLE OF ACTIVITY ATTRIBUTES AND INDIVIDUAL SCHEDULES(2009) Akar, Gulsah; Clifton, Kelly J; Civil Engineering; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Activity-based approaches have taken hold in transportation research over the last several decades. The foundation of the activity-based approach is to view travel as a result of our activity choices and scheduling decisions. Therefore, better understanding of activity choice, planning time horizons, and activity attributes will lead to more accurate demand forecasts. This dissertation extends the current activity choice modeling framework by incorporating the characteristics of the individuals' schedules, planning time horizons and focusing on the salient attributes of the activities. This study consists of three parts which are linked to one another by their conceptual and empirical findings. The first part identifies the determinants of the planning time horizons - defined as when people decide about performing their activities. Several household and individual characteristics, and activity attributes are tested for their association with planning times. The activity attributes which have significant impacts on the planning time horizons of the activities are used in the second part for generating new activity groups. The second part clusters activities based on their salient attributes, such as duration, frequency, number of involved people and flexibilities, rather than their functional types (work, leisure, household obligations, etc.) and creates activity groups such as "long, infrequent, personally committed activities", "quick, spatially fixed, temporally flexible activities" etc. The activity groups generated in this part inform the activity choice modeling structure developed in the third part. The main analytical techniques used in this research are the Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and discrete choice models. PCA is used to define the new activity groups. The analysis of the planning time horizons and activity choice are performed by mixed logit models. The model results reveal the significant relationships between socio-demographics, temporal characteristics, travel, and characteristics of the schedules on activity choice. The findings of these models could be integrated in the activity choice modules of the existing activity-travel simulation models by either applying the comprehensive model (which may face limitations due to the availability of data) or integrating the findings of the models in the decision rules.