Public Policy Theses and Dissertations

Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://hdl.handle.net/1903/2803

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    On Being the Right Size: A Framework for the Analytical Study of Scale, Economy, and Ecosystem
    (2006-04-12) Malghan, Deepak Vaman; Daly, Herman E; Public Affairs; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
    If the economy is conceived as an open subsystem of the larger ecosystem, the physical size of the economy relative to the ecosystem that contains and sustains it becomes a salient feature of economic analysis. This key question of scale is therefore one of the central organizing principles of ecological economics. However, scale has mostly been used as a pedagogical device or a heuristic rather than as an empirical tool for environmental policy. The primary bottleneck has been the lack of well-dened theoretical frameworks to empirically measure scale, and to interpret measured values of scale. Our overarching research question is: how can scale be measured at dierent levels of economic-geographic aggregations? The seemingly simple question of `how large is the economy relative to the ecosystem' is fraught with several theoretical diculties. We develop a novel theoretical framework for empirical measurement of scale based on a simple analytical representation of the economy-ecosystem interaction in terms of stock, ows, funds, and uxes. We also develop theoretical frameworks to determine benchmark scale measures" that address the questions: how large can the economy be relative to the ecosystem, and how large should the economy be relative to the ecosystem? For scale measures to be useful as tools for environmental policy, a critical requirement, besides being able to empirically measure scale, is a consistent and objective ordinal ranking of two or more measured values of scale. Given two empirical measurements we need to be able to consistently rank the states of the world represented by the scale metric. We develop an axiomatic framework for consistent ordinal raking of scale measures. The framework developed here helps identify theoretical problems with extant empirical assessments of the biophysical size of economic activity. The biophysical assessments that we review in detail include the Material Flow Analysis methodology, Human Appropriation of the Products of Photosynthesis, and the Ecological Footprint.
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    ENERGY DEMAND RESPONSES TO TEMPERATURE AND IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE
    (2004-04-26) Amato, Anthony Dominic; Ruth, Matthias; Public Affairs
    Climate is a major determinant of energy demand as well as the structure of the built environment. Climate change may alter energy demand and energy demand patterns. In this dissertation, I investigate the implications of climate change for energy demand by asking if energy demand sensitivities to temperature are place-specific, and if energy demand sensitivities to temperature reflect energy users' adaptations to prevailing climate? To answer these questions, energy demands for electricity, natural gas, and heating oil in seventeen states along the eastern seaboard of the United States are quantitatively analyzed. The states are on a north-south orientation to maximize inter-state climatic differences and presumably the degree of adaptation by energy users to climate. Unique to this dissertation is the use of an impact-adaptation assessment framework to project energy demand responses to climate change scenarios. The net impacts on energy demand are related to both the system's sensitivity and adaptive capacity to changes in climate stimuli. In this study, a temporal analysis is developed and used to quantify the historic sensitivities of energy demands to climatic variability while controlling for energy prices, daylight hours, and other socioeconomic factors. Based on the findings of the temporal analysis, the geographic analysis explores adaptation to current climate and provides for an estimate of the adaptive capacity of energy demand to climatic change. The final step of the assessment projects energy demand responses to climate change scenarios based on the temporal analysis findings as well as on a synthesis of the temporal and geographic analyses findings. The principle findings of this dissertation are (1) that energy demand sensitivities to temperature vary by region, (2) that part of this variation is attributable to adaptations to regional climate conditions, and (3) that projections of energy demand responses to climate change should account for adaptations to changing climate characteristics. In this dissertation, I develop methodological frameworks to assess the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of energy demand, present findings, discuss their implications, propose general recommendations for improving the practice of modeling climate change impacts on energy demand, and offer suggestions for future research.