Public Policy Theses and Dissertations
Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://hdl.handle.net/1903/2803
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Item AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF THE FUTURE “HYDROGEN ECONOMY”: DECARBONIZATION POTENTIAL, SOCIETAL IMPLICATIONS, AND POLICY APPROACHES(2024) O'Rourke, Patrick Robert; Hultman, Nathan; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Recently clean hydrogen has captured the attention of policy communities, as evidenced by the publication of hydrogen “roadmaps” or “strategies” by dozens of nations. This is partly because it can be produced from numerous primary energy resources and utilized in a plethora of ways to enable decarbonization. However, there remain open questions as to how the energy carrier should contribute toward carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation. Additionally, less is known about its impacts on other societal objectives and whether government plans for hydrogen are driven by realistic expectations regarding its ability to facilitate emissions reductions. This dissertation involves three studies which simulate energy transitions within the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), each aiming to help illuminate hydrogen’s potential impact on society. First, clean hydrogen supply and demand within the context of decarbonization is investigated. In this research, it is found that hydrogen could be a decentralized energy carrier, as a large portion of its production is enabled by onsite production (i.e., at the location of the end user). In terms of demand, although it will represent a smaller portion of global final energy compared to alternatives, hydrogen enables CO2 mitigation in difficult-to-electrify end uses (e.g., satiating demand for industrial high-temperature heat). The second topic of this dissertation examines hydrogen’s potential implications for the water-energy-food nexus. It is found that clean hydrogen production is unlikely to be a large source of water demand, however, its availability in the forthcoming energy transition could cause larger indirect changes in water demand for many regions of the world. Additionally, clean hydrogen availability is found to enable lower staple crop prices, as it provides a method of reducing CO2 associated with fertilizer manufacturing. Lastly, this dissertation analyzed the Japanese and Korean national hydrogen plans. Aligning with the results from the first research topic of this work, hydrogen’s use within their economies is lower than alternative decarbonization strategies (e.g., direct electrification). As a result, the national plans of both nations are found to be overestimating the scale of hydrogen supply. Further, both countries are generally setting numerical goals for hydrogen deployment in areas of the economy that are less economically efficient compared to alternative sectors where it could both facilitate decarbonization as well as bolster their economies.Item ARE CANADA’S NET-ZERO PLANS ACHIEVABLE, PRUDENT, AND DURABLE?(2024) O'Keefe, Kowan; Sprinkle, Robert; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Canada is a major oil- and gas-producing country that has committed into law the goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy-wide by 2050. Yet the prospect of reduced Canadian oil production has major domestic political and economic implications. Climate change mitigation requires sustained policy engagement, and so policymakers must endeavor to make climate policy that is politically durable. Scenario analysis is a vital decision-support tool for understanding these transition dynamics associated with pursuit of net zero. The first paper in this dissertation explores transition dynamics for Canada across several scenarios with detailed policy representation for achieving net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), an open-source multi-sector dynamics model. The results highlight the importance of effective policy implementation and the variation in transition dynamics attributable to socioeconomic and technological assumptions, carbon dioxide removal scalability, and non-CO2 mitigation. The second paper in this dissertation uses GCAM to examine the sensitivity of Canadian oil production to several external forces in pursuit of net zero. The results show that forces outside of Canada’s control are highly determinative of future oil production levels in Canada. But if Canada moves toward net-zero GHG emissions on its announced timeline, it can reduce the magnitude of the additional declines in Canadian oil production attributable to external forces. Such a move would give Canada greater autonomy to shape transition outcomes in a way that best balances domestic societal priorities. The alternative would be for external forces to thrust a transition upon Canada without regard for such domestic concerns. The third paper in this dissertation examines how these domestic political forces impact Canada’s pursuit of net zero using archival analysis followed by scenario analysis in GCAM. The results of the qualitative policy analysis highlight that a little more than one third (9 of 26) of the modeled policies are less likely to be politically durable, because they fail tests of pan-political acceptability or pan-regional acceptability or both. Reductions in net GHG emissions are significantly smaller in modeled current-policy scenarios where these nine policies are rolled back after 2025. Accordingly, the policies identified as less likely to be politically durable demand greater focus to build stronger cross-party and cross-regional support.Item THE ROLES AND IMPLICATIONS OF AGRICULTURAL AND ENERGY RESOURCES TRADE IN A CLIMATE CHANGE-MITIGATING WORLD(2024) Yarlagadda, Brinda; Hultman, Nathan E.; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Global dependence on agricultural and energy resources trade has grown significantly in the past several decades. In the coming decades, the roles and implications of international trade of various commodities will change, influenced by and important for achieving climate mitigation goals. As globalization increases, new energy technologies emerge, and new climate-oriented trade policies are enacted, there is a need to understand the resulting implications (opportunities and vulnerabilities) on exporters and importers. I present three essays that use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to evaluate future, inter-regional trade dynamics in a climate-mitigating world. Essay 1 focuses on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a key agricultural exporting region. I show that agricultural market integration (i.e., the reduction of trade barriers) and climate mitigation policies could increase agricultural production and trade opportunities for many LAC economies (particularly in southern South America). Total net export revenue across LAC could reach $110-$270 billion annually by 2050. However, these opportunities could also pose significant economic and environmental trade-offs, including emissions reduction challenges, potential loss of livestock production, increased consumer expenditures, and deforestation and water scarcity pressures. Essay 2 explores the role of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade as a rapidly emerging technology compared to pipeline natural gas. I analyze how advances in LNG technology, limitations on trade, and climate mitigation policies could affect global and regional vulnerabilities in energy supply. Globally, new additions in LNG and pipeline export infrastructure, range from 330-1330 and 130-440 million tons per annum (MTPA), respectively, by 2050 across scenarios, with the lower end of this range achieved through a transition to a net-zero energy system and limited trade. The results also highlight diverging risks for different gas exporters. For example, Russia, which produces gas largely for pipeline exports, may face larger underutilization due to advances in LNG technology and geopolitical shifts than regions oriented towards domestic and LNG markets, such as the USA and Middle East. Essay 3 evaluates whether import-restrictions on deforestation linked oil crops (i.e., oil palm and soybean) can be effective in reducing deforestation and land use change (LUC) emissions as well as their broader economic implications. I find that current EU restrictions will likely have minimal impact. If extended beyond the EU, import restrictions could drive reductions in cumulative LUC emissions in key oil-crop exporting regions— up to 0.9% in Indonesia, 1.5% in the rest of Southeast Asia, 3.8% in Argentina and 6.7% in Brazil, relative to a scenario with no import restrictions. However, these key exporters could also face losses ranging $4.1-$61 billion in cumulative agricultural production revenue by 2050.Item Energy equity & justice implications of climate change mitigation pathways(2023) Vallimyalil, Mel George A; Patwardhan, Anand; Hultman, Nathan E; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Analyzing distributional effects on vulnerable sections is important for enhancing climate mitigation ambition by supporting social objectives. Discounting the impacts on the most vulnerable, prior research underestimates the skew in investments required to meet sustainable development goals. Its focus on representative households and cost optimal mitigation pathway archetypes also amplifies false narratives around societal and developmental tradeoffs of mitigation policies. This study demonstrates that bespoke pathway design can support simultaneous attainment of multiple national energy priorities. Using a consistent framework and accounting for interactions between different sectors, it evaluates a set of diverse mitigation pathways to similar climate outcomes. It examines short & long-term distributional impacts on national energy goals to identify pathways which offer synergies across multiple objectives and regions.Next, the impacts are downscaled to the household income deciles in India & the US using household survey data & future income distribution projections, to scrutinize the residential energy burden changes under different mitigation policies. The results show regressive impacts on access and affordability for most mitigation pathways, except those propelled by demand side mitigation strategies and non-CO2 emission reductions. Thereafter, it expands the conceptualization of energy poverty beyond unitary dimensions, binary classifications and income relationships. Applying an alternative framework to identify vulnerable households experiencing energy poverty in India, this study showcases the disparities across dimensions. It then envisions an intersectionality context and proffers empirical evidence of the increased likelihood of households at the overlap of multiple deprivations being entrapped in more severe forms of energy poverty and the concomitant effects on gender inequity. A key finding of this study is that mitigation pathway choice and design matters for just energy transition goals and tailored pathways addressing underlying local and global inequities provide latitude for synergies and progressive impacts. It also establishes that technology solutions alone are unable to redress pre-existing inequities and should be complemented with other support policies for the vulnerable. This study contributes to the scholarship on the need for improved representation of heterogeneity in energy-climate models and offers policy relevance – showing the importance of underlying systemic changes to achieve social & climate goals together.Item Acknowledging Survival: Political Recognition and Indigenous Climate Adaptation in the United States(2021) Cottrell, Clifton; Bierbaum, Rosina; Sprinkle, Robert; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Indigenous peoples in the United States are already disproportionately experiencing the impacts of climate change. Closely related to tribal efforts to manage climate effects are historical endeavors to assert indigenous sovereignty and govern tribal lands, but deficiencies in the process used by the U.S. government to acknowledge tribal sovereignty have left hundreds of indigenous communities unrecognized and especially vulnerable to climate harm. My dissertation aims to determine whether a tribe’s recognition status affects its capacity for climate adaptation. To make this determination, I utilize a case study methodology wherein I analyze the circumstances of one non-federally recognized tribe, the Burt Lake Band of Ottawa and Chippewa Indians, in three critical areas related to adaptation and tribal recognition — access to key species and cultural resources, utilization of federal funding opportunities, and participation in climate decision-making. Tribal access to resources is often predicated by historical treaty rights, so I applied a theme identification technique to extrapolate important strategies on easing barriers to resource access and regulatory authority. I then used the themes to compare the likelihood of the Burt Lake Band and nearby federally recognized tribes to maintain connections to key species in the future. I next employed a comparative statutory analysis methodology to differentiate eligibility for non-federally recognized tribes accessing federal funding. I also assessed tribal climate adaptation plans and interviewed tribal climate plan managers on the barriers to successful implementation of adaptation actions. Finally, I developed criteria from a review of global literature on the inclusion of indigenous peoples in adaptation projects to assess participatory opportunities for the Burt Lake Band in state and regional climate governance. My findings show that the Band’s lack of federal recognition inhibits its adaptive capacity to access key cultural resources, federal funding, and climate governance opportunities. However, I also conclude that state and local perceptions of tribal identity could have a greater influence on the adaptation of non-federally recognized tribes, so I recommend that a more inclusive federal recognition system be implemented to avoid the unequal development of indigenous adaptive capacity based on disparate approaches to indigenous affairs by state and local jurisdictions.Item Do Intergovernmental Organizations Drive the Growth of Voluntary Cooperation on Climate Change?(2020) Sapatnekar, Poorti; Orr, Robert C; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Voluntary cooperation on climate change has grown rapidly since 2000, and presents a potential pathway to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Many intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) seek to cultivate such multi-stakeholder partnerships or international cooperative initiatives in greenhouse gas-emitting sectors. But are IGOs an effective class of actors to do so? Evidence has lagged behind practice. This study fills three gaps in empirical knowledge: (1) Have large-scale efforts by IGOs (such as summits) to promote voluntary cooperation caused the growth of cooperation? If so, how? (2) By participating in partnerships within specific sectors, to what degree have IGOs influenced the growth of voluntary cooperation in those sectors? (3) How do large-scale IGO efforts interact with IGOs working within initiatives, and what is their combined effect on the quality of initiatives? This study analyses large-scale efforts during 2000-2015, and conducts three case studies, in forests, short-lived climate pollutants, and land transport. Two methods are employed: qualitative process tracing (including 71 interviews) and dynamic social network analysis of a dataset comprising 252 initiatives and their participants. Community detection and node centrality measures probe for influence over time. This study finds that: (1) Cooperative initiatives form sectoral ecosystems among inter-connected entities. New initiatives represent evolutionary changes to the strength—or quality—of cooperation within sectors. Thus, the quality of cooperation must be assessed at the sectoral level in addition to the initiative level; (2) Many IGOs participate in partnerships, but a select few have become central community-builders and these few wield strong influence over the evolution of the sectoral ecosystems; (3) IGOs (and governments) that have convening power and autonomy can choreograph a surge in the growth of voluntary cooperation. Of all IGOs, having established a ‘good offices’ role on climate change, the office of the UN Secretary-General is uniquely able to do so; (4) The surge requires six organizational attributes, which together characterize “collective choreography of cooperation”: strategic timing, high visibility, sectoral orientation, emphasis on ambitious cooperative commitments; subsidiarity, and leadership with centralized decision-making; and (5) Sustained and adequate institutional support is necessary for the gains of collective choreography to be impactful.Item INTEGRATING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS INTO CLIMATE FINANCE PROJECTS: ASSESSING THE MARKET IMPACT OF CO-BENEFITS FROM CARBON OFFSETS(2020) Lou, Jiehong; Hultman, Nathan E; Patwardhan, Anand; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)By design, climate finance projects have two fundamental features: climate benefits and sustainable development benefits. Climate finance is important for cutting emissions, but it can also deliver significant additional benefits, often termed “co-benefits.” The concept of co-benefits, although lacking a consist definition in the international arena, is so important, especially for the audiences from the developing world. Co-benefits are the backbone of a green and low-carbon development of these developing countries, where promoting high-quality economic development, maintaining economic, financial and energy security, protecting environment and controlling carbon emissions should achieved together. However, how the climate finance market values co-benefits remains poorly understood. By focusing on local co-benefits, this research highlights the importance of valuing co-benefits where projects are located, and how these projects deliver impacts for local communities. This dissertation looks at the question of co-benefits in three specific contexts by using both quantitative and qualitative methods as follows: First, I assess the likelihood that project co-benefits encourage buyers to pay more for Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), the major international offset mechanism within a broader world of carbon finance. Second, I look at potential mechanisms of quality branding associated with the CDM to see whether these indicators in fact attract a price premium attributable to co-benefits. Third, I study the role of offset co-benefits in corporate behavior and decision-making in voluntary carbon markets. My research shows that in the CDM context, a project with a likelihood of delivering more co-benefits receives a higher CER price from buyers. The price difference between projects with the highest co-benefits and lowest co-benefits is $4.9/tCO2e on average or a difference of 27.6 percent. The large variability in the price of CER partially comes from the locations of the buyer and the project, while CER prices do not differ based on the buyer’s profit status, sector, or the number of projects they hosted. In the quality branding context, I see that quality control indicators (particularly the independently generated label of “Gold Standard”) have a significant effect on CER prices with the price premium is in the range of $1.13/tCO2e (6.6% of price increase due to the Gold Standard certification of co-benefits) to $4.2/tCO2e (29%). Additionally, I see a strong commitment from public finance in delivering local co-benefits through their willingness to pay a price premium. In the voluntary carbon markets, I find that corporate motivations show a large degree of consistency and orientation, which aligns with the findings on the purchasing behavior for offset standards. Companies with a primary motivation to reduce emissions will prioritize purchasing cost-effective offset projects. Alternately, companies with primary motivations for non-emission impacts (such as company values or market competitiveness) value co-benefits more, and are willing to pay more to fulfill these goals.Item Analysis of the Labor Impacts of Clean Energy Transitions in the Power Sector in India(2020) Sharma, Anjali; Patwardhan, Anand; Hultman, Nathan; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)The inevitability of climate action means that India needs to rapidly transition to a low-carbon economy while working towards its development goals. Though considered an emerging economy, India still lags behind on development indicators such as employment generation, and poverty eradication. As creation of ‘green jobs’ is recognized as an important co-benefit of climate mitigation, clean energy transitions can help India meet both its climate and employment goals. However, assessments of the labor impacts of clean energy transitions for India remain limited. In this dissertation, I explore the case of the power sector in India in detail. I first assess the economy-wide labor impacts of power generation in India in 2030 under different decarbonization scenarios. I use input-output modeling for this analysis. Second, I assess the regional distribution of the labor impacts associated with clean energy transitions using a spread-sheet based model. Finally, I assess the distribution of jobs in renewable and fossil-fuel based industries by skills. My results show that the total job creation in scenarios with accelerated deployment of renewable energy (RE) is relatively lower than business-as-usual scenarios on account of lower total power generation in the former scenarios, and greater economy-wide labor impacts of coal. I also find that the new jobs that are generated in solar and wind sectors will be concentrated in the western and southern parts of India, with 60% of the total jobs being generated in the states of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. Clean energy transitions would increase the requirement of semi-skilled, and skilled RE workforce, particularly for solar, in these states. In order to maximize the employment benefits associated with clean energy transitions, the Indian government should design industrial policies to steer domestic manufacturing of clean energy technologies. Coal-rich eastern states should be prioritized as locations for development of new industries to compensate for the clean energy transitions related job, and economic revenue losses. Finally, employment data for energy sector, including renewable technologies, should be collected regularly for a better assessment of the social and economic impacts of clean energy transitions.Item CLIMATE CHANGE AND POLITICAL CONTENTION – A MECHANISM BASED FRAMEWORK(2019) Imran, Zafar; Gallagher, Nancy W; Patwardhan, Anand; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)This dissertation proposes a framework to systematically analyze the potential of climate change to cause social and political unrest. Extant literature generated on the topic seems to have come to a standstill in establishing whether such a link exists, as there is no clear evidence that climate-related stresses directly contributed to civil war onset. The framework put forth in this research makes the case that climate change process, contrasted from climate change variables aggregated at the country-year level, unfolds in a varied manner within and across societies. It is the interaction of changes in the natural system with a society’s preexisting social, economic, and political processes, in addition to coping responses from vulnerable populations, that determine the nature and trajectory of social and political stresses. The dissertation contends, most notably, that the fundamental problem with the extant analytical approach has more to do with ontological assumptions than explanatory approaches (qualitative vs. quantitative). Given the complexity and emergence inherent in the phenomenon under consideration, the positivist ontology is unsuited and incapable to reveal causal pathways linking climate change with predictors of social and political instability and conflict. This research uses critical realism as an ontological basis for the mechanism-based framework proposed in this dissertation. The framework is applied on the case study of Pakistan where direct and indirect effects of climate change are interacting with the country’s political economy, and imposing social and political stresses to the extent of stoking a social movement organized and run by vulnerable farmers. Intra-annual changes in the Indus stream-flows, as well as temporal and spatial changes in the long-term trends of temperature and rainfall have destabilized Pakistan’s agricultural sector. Coping responses taken by vulnerable populations appear to be not just ineffective but are producing system effects with society-wide implications. The result is a farmers’ movement that is although in its early phases, has become a potent political force, and has resulted in more than 700 large increasingly violent protests in the last few years alone.Item RISKS TO FOOD AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS FROM CLIMATE POLICIES: AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL FOOD AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS WITH ALTERNATIVE CLIMATE MITIGATION STRATEGIES TO 2050(2016) Cui, Yiyun; Hultman, Nathan E.; Gilmore, Elisabeth A.; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Although mitigating GHG emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and access due to land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Prior studies have examined the co-impacts on food availability and global producer prices caused by alternative climate policies. More recent studies have looked at the reduction in total caloric intake driven by both changing income and changing food prices under one specific climate policy. However, due to inelastic calorie demand, consumers’ well-being are likely further reduced by increased food expenditures. Built upon existing literature, my dissertation explores how alternative climate policy designs might adversely affect both caloric intake and staple food budget share to 2050, by using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and a post-estimated metric of food availability and access (FAA). My dissertation first develop a set of new metrics and methods to explore new perspectives of food availability and access under new conditions. The FAA metric consists of two components, the fraction of GDP per capita spent on five categories of staple food and total caloric intake relative to a reference level. By testing the metric against alternate expectations of the future, it shows consistent results with previous studies that economic growth dominates the improvement of FAA. As we increase our ambition to achieve stringent climate targets, two policy conditions tend to have large impacts on FAA driven by competing land use and increasing food prices. Strict conservation policies leave the competition between bioenergy and agriculture production on existing commercial land, while pricing terrestrial carbon encourages large-scale afforestation. To avoid unintended outcomes to food availability and access for the poor, pricing land emissions in frontier forests has the advantage of selecting more productive land for agricultural activities compared to the full conservation approach, but the land carbon price should not be linked to the price of energy system emissions. These results are highly relevant to effective policy-making to reduce land use change emissions, such as the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).